Core Viewpoint - The travel and accommodation market is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Ctrip facing challenges from both established competitors and new entrants, leading to a potential shift in market dynamics [21][29]. Group 1: Ctrip's Historical Performance - Ctrip has maintained a leading position in the OTA market for a long time, with revenue increasing from 334 million yuan in its early years to 33.205 billion yuan in 2019, and net profit reaching 6.998 billion yuan [2]. - After a significant decline in revenue during 2020-2021 due to external factors, Ctrip began to recover in 2022 as the domestic tourism market rebounded [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The domestic tourism market is projected to see 5.62 billion trips in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with total spending expected to reach approximately 5.8 trillion yuan, up 17.1% [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with traditional OTAs, internet giants, and self-operated businesses vying for market share, leading to a "price war" scenario [7][19]. - New entrants like Meituan, JD, and Douyin are making significant moves into the travel market, leveraging their existing platforms and user bases to capture market share [15][17][19]. Group 3: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards personalized and experiential travel, moving away from standardized group tours to more unique and culturally immersive experiences [22][23]. - The rise of local tourism and the increasing interest in smaller cities and unique destinations are creating new opportunities and challenges for traditional OTAs [22][24]. Group 4: Ctrip's Strategic Responses - Ctrip is exploring overseas markets for growth while facing competition from international players like Booking and Expedia [28]. - The company is also attempting to enhance its content ecosystem by integrating community features and user-generated content to increase user engagement [28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].