在移动互联网流量红利见顶、 AI 技术狂飙的 2025 年，提前一个身位布局的阿里，出牌愈发密集。 12 月 17 日，千问接入了高德地图，从此有了认路、在现实世界干活的能力。这意味着，无论是餐馆推荐、路线规划，还是房产选址、旅行行程规划，千 问都能基于实时地图数据直接回答。 高德仅仅是第一步。千问 App 本体，正悄然将整个阿里的生态悉数收入囊中，成为那个 ALL IN ONE 的超级入口，实现 Manus 都没完成的愿景。 眼下，长出 " 手脚 " 的千问，跳出聊天框开始输出行动。这个 C 端的超级应用，也侧面回击了 AI 泡沫论调，它正将大模型和算力，转化为实实在在的生 产力价值和问题解决能力。 这标志着阿里的 AI 战略，终于从技术的 " 云端 " 转向了商业的 " 地面战争 " 。此刻的阿里正用 AI 黏合起整个集团的资源富矿，由此构建起的庞大护城 河，几乎无人能敌。 大模型有了 " 手脚 " " 没有空间智能， AGI 就不完整。 " 今年 7 月， "AI 教母 " 李飞飞在 YC 全球创业者峰会上如是说道。这样的观点，其实早已凝结为共识，高德地图 CEO 郭宁说，任何行动，都离不开对 时间和空 ...

过去一年，我们见证了AI从科幻走入可交互的现实，它能写诗，能生成图和视频，能和你聊哲学。然而当市场在惊叹于这些炫酷技术的同时，一个普遍 的迷茫也浮上水面：除了偶尔的惊喜和娱乐，这个昂贵的技术奇迹，究竟能为我实实在在地省下多少时间、解决多少麻烦？ 今天，阿里巴巴旗下"千问"APP交出了一份阶段性答卷。阿里巴巴官方信息显示，自11月17日公测仅23天，其月活跃用户数已突破3000万，成为全球增长 最快的AI应用。 这个数字的意义，远不止于又一个增长神话。更值得关注的是，用户都用它做了什么。显然，阿里千问的爆火业已释放出一个清晰的信号——用户对AI 的需求，正从"图个新鲜"的休闲体验，转向"真能办事"、"真能解决问题"的生产力革命。 作者 | 贝隆行业研究 01 "卷"技术，更"卷"场景，千问的务实主义 此次在公布亮眼用户增长数据的同时，阿里千问继续"放大招"。其APP聪明地绕开了华而不实的功能竞赛，向所有用户首批开放AI PPT、AI写作、AI文 库、AI讲题四项功能，押注在工作和学习这两个最高频、最高需求密度的场景，刀刀切中职场人和学生党的痛点：那些重复、繁琐、耗时的"杂活"。 例如，对于职场人来说，做一份PP ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce internet technology group that restructured its organization in June, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce business unit, and in August, it adjusted its business structure into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others, focusing on "E-commerce, Cloud + AI" as its core business, enhancing organizational concentration and cohesion [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with Alibaba entering the market in May through food delivery services. User activity metrics show a year-on-year increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) from May to October, with growth rates of +3%, +7%, +17%, +19%, +12%, and +9% respectively [1] - Order volume peaked at 120 million in July, with market share for Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me rising significantly from 29.4% in Q4 2024 to 42.8% in Q3 2025 [1] - Delivery capability has seen over 240% growth in the number of delivery personnel from April to August 2025 [1] - User Experience (UE) investments are at their highest in FY26Q2, with losses halved from peak levels, and improvements expected as scale and efficiency increase [1] Group 3: AI Strategy - Alibaba Cloud is recognized as a "full-stack AI company," pursuing top-tier self-research capabilities in AI chips, cloud computing platforms, and foundational large model capabilities. It operates in 29 public cloud regions and 92 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 edge nodes [2] - Annual capital expenditures exceed 100 billion yuan, with the Qwen series large models significantly upgraded to Qwen3-Max, enhancing performance and creating a closed-loop with applications like Qwen APP, Quark, Taobao, and DingTalk [2] - The latest PPU chip technology from Alibaba's T-head is at the forefront domestically [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The traditional shelf e-commerce advantage is expected to stabilize market share, while cloud business driven by AI shows significant future growth potential. Adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are projected at 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 times [2] - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is assigned an 11 times earnings valuation (EBITDA basis), while the cloud business is given a 7 times price-to-sales valuation, with other businesses currently not contributing to valuation. The target market capitalization is set at 3.36 trillion yuan, with a target price of 192.48 HKD, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ele.me officially announced its rebranding to "Taobao Flash Purchase," indicating a strategic shift within Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Rebranding and Strategic Changes - As of December 5, the Ele.me app will be updated to fully transition to "Taobao Flash Purchase," with all related branding changes expected to follow shortly [2]. - The launch of Taobao Flash Purchase on May 2 saw rapid growth, achieving over 40 million daily orders within a month, surpassing expectations in scale and efficiency [2]. - Following the rebranding, Ele.me and Fliggy will be integrated into Alibaba's China E-commerce Group, with both maintaining their management structures while aligning with the group's unified goals [2][3]. Group 2: Business Integration and Future Outlook - Alibaba is further consolidating its business operations, as indicated by the establishment of the Alibaba E-commerce Group, which integrates various e-commerce platforms including Taobao, Tmall, and others [3]. - The CEO of Alibaba emphasized that the evolving e-commerce landscape, both domestically and globally, will hinge on supply chain capabilities, fulfillment efficiency, and consumer service, which will shape future competitive dynamics [3].

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Alibaba-W (09988.HK) by 5.99 million shares on December 1, 2025, marking a total net increase of 85.34 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 12 occasions, resulting in a cumulative net increase of 112 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold a total of 2.208 billion shares of Alibaba-W, which represents 11.56% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Trading Data Summary - On December 1, 2025, total shares held reached 2.208 billion, with a change of 5.99 million shares, reflecting a 0.27% increase [2] - On November 28, 2025, total shares held were 2.202 billion, with a change of 9.77 million shares, indicating a 0.45% increase [2] - On November 27, 2025, total shares held were 2.192 billion, with a change of 35.39 million shares, showing a 1.64% increase [2] - On November 26, 2025, total shares held were 2.157 billion, with a change of 26.40 million shares, representing a 1.24% increase [2] - On November 25, 2025, total shares held were 2.130 billion, with a change of 7.77 million shares, indicating a 0.37% increase [2] Company Overview - Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides technology infrastructure and marketing platforms, operating through seven business segments [2] - The China commerce segment includes retail businesses such as Taobao, Tmall, and Hema, as well as wholesale operations [2] - The international commerce segment encompasses international retail and wholesale businesses, including Lazada and AliExpress [2] - The local services segment includes location-based services such as Ele.me, Amap, and Fliggy [2] - The Cainiao segment offers domestic and international logistics services and supply chain management solutions [2] - The cloud segment provides public and hybrid cloud services to domestic and international enterprises, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk [2] - The digital media and entertainment segment includes Youku, Quark, Alibaba Pictures, and other content and distribution platforms, as well as online gaming [2] - The innovation and other segment includes DAMO Academy, Tmall Genie, and other businesses [2]

Core Insights - Both Alibaba and Meituan reported significant losses in their recent Q3 financial results, indicating a fierce competitive landscape in the Chinese e-commerce and food delivery markets [2][3] - Alibaba's adjusted EBITA dropped from 443 billion RMB to 105 billion RMB year-on-year, while Meituan's revenue was 955 billion RMB with an operating loss of 141 billion RMB and an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion RMB, compared to a net profit of 128.29 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][3] - The cash burn for both companies exceeded 300 billion RMB in Q3, with Alibaba's cash reserves allowing for a lower percentage of cash burn compared to Meituan, highlighting an asymmetrical battle [2][3] Financial Performance - Alibaba's Q3 revenue for its China e-commerce group was 114.77 billion RMB, a 16% increase year-on-year, while Meituan's revenue was 955 billion RMB, reflecting the ongoing competition in the market [7] - The adjusted net loss for Meituan in Q3 was 160.1 billion RMB, a stark contrast to the previous year's adjusted net profit of 128.29 billion RMB [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market share for food delivery services has not reverted to previous levels despite the cessation of subsidies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [3] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new players like Douyin (TikTok) entering the local commerce space, further intensifying the competition [3] Strategic Developments - Alibaba's strategy has shifted towards a more focused approach, consolidating its resources under the "all in one" strategy, which aims to enhance operational efficiency and user engagement [8] - The company is actively investing in its instant retail segment, with a clear roadmap to expand scale, improve efficiency, and optimize product offerings [15][17] User Behavior Changes - The concept of "good loss" is emerging, where losses are seen as investments in long-term user habits and market positioning, similar to Amazon's strategy during its growth phase [9][10] - Instant retail is expected to create irreversible changes in consumer habits, with Alibaba's efforts in this area driving significant increases in active users and revenue growth [12][14] Competitive Outlook - The ongoing battle between Alibaba and Meituan is characterized by aggressive strategies from both sides, with Alibaba's investments in instant retail putting pressure on Meituan's market share and profitability [17] - The competition is likely to remain intense, with both companies adapting to the evolving market landscape and consumer preferences [17]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Quark AI glasses, equipped with the Qianwen assistant, marks a significant step in integrating smart hardware with Alibaba's ecosystem, enhancing user interaction with the physical world [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The Quark AI glasses are the first smart hardware to feature the Qianwen assistant [1] - The glasses aim to connect users more effectively with the physical world through advanced technology [1] Group 2: Integration with Alibaba Ecosystem - The Qianwen assistant in the Quark AI glasses integrates with key Alibaba services such as Alipay, Gaode Map, Taobao, Fliggy, and Alibaba Business Travel [1] - This integration allows the assistant to assist users in various tasks within the Alibaba ecosystem [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Quark AI glasses, featuring the Qianwen assistant, have been officially launched, enhancing the connection between digital and physical worlds [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The Quark AI glasses are the first smart hardware to integrate the Qianwen assistant [1] - The glasses are designed to assist users in the physical world by leveraging various Alibaba ecosystem services [1] Group 2: Integration with Alibaba Ecosystem - The Qianwen assistant is integrated with key Alibaba services such as Alipay, Gaode Map, Taobao, Fliggy, and Alibaba Travel [1] - This integration allows the assistant to provide practical support and services to users in real-world scenarios [1]

Core Insights - The Quark AI glasses, featuring the Qianwen assistant, have been officially launched, marking a significant advancement in smart hardware integration [1] - Alibaba's Vice President Wu Jia emphasized that the Quark AI glasses enhance the connection between the Qianwen assistant and the physical world, indicating a strategic direction for further integration with more smart devices [1] - The Qianwen assistant on the Quark AI glasses has already integrated key services from Alibaba's ecosystem, including Alipay, Gaode Map, Taobao, Fliggy, and Alibaba Travel, showcasing its initial capabilities in assisting users in real-world tasks [1] Company Developments - The launch of the Quark AI glasses represents a new product offering from Alibaba, aimed at expanding its smart hardware portfolio [1] - The integration of multiple Alibaba services into the Qianwen assistant highlights the company's strategy to create a seamless user experience across its platforms [1] Industry Trends - The introduction of AI-powered smart glasses reflects a growing trend in the tech industry towards enhancing user interaction with digital services in physical environments [1] - The collaboration of various services within the Alibaba ecosystem through the Qianwen assistant indicates a shift towards more interconnected smart devices, which may influence future developments in the smart hardware market [1]

尽管看上去依然热闹非凡，但毋庸置疑的是，一场行业大洗牌正在电商领域静默地进行，曾经风光无限的增长神话，正在让位于残酷的现实。 实际上，近年以来，电商平台普遍面临的增长压力已有目共睹。这一点在头部电商公司最新发布的财报中得到集中体现，阿里虽然营收仍在增长，但净利 润却暴跌；京东更是"增收不增利"；拼多多增速连续两季降至个位数。 与此同时，电商市场涌入众多新玩家，尤其是抖音和小红书的加速冲击，传统电商平台也在不断拓展业务边际，这都昭示行业走到一个新的转折点。 某种意义上，目前电商的局面，颇有点像各在座玩家进入了"惯蛋局"关键的"报牌"时刻，但没有人愿意下牌桌。 接下来的故事，谁将成为新的王者，谁又会让位于新人？当然，市场终究会给出答案。 但无论如何，零售的本质从未改变，高效地为消费者提供物超所值的商品与服务，仍是基本的生存法则。"讲故事不如守住本分"，这句话，放在电商行 业，同样适用。 01 财报背后：多因素下的重重压力 种种现象表明，电商行业正从高速增长期进入深度调整阶段，竞争格局正经历结构性转变。 国信证券研究院的数据显示，2022年，国内电商CR2（两家企业的集中率）集中度为60%，CR5为84%；而截至2 ...