本文来自微信公众号"山上"，作者：山上，36氪经授权发布。 作者｜王彬 封面｜《超人》 酒旅赛道已经很久没有新鲜事儿了。 这个互联网公司们最先介入的赛道，过去 20 多年来的玩法几乎没有发生过什么变化。中国最早也是最大的 OTA 平台在 1999 年诞生，那时整个中国互联 网渗透率还不足 1%，后来人们熟知的搜索引擎、社交媒体乃至电商网站们都还没有在中国出现。 增长的市场，固化的格局 即便酒旅行业发展了 20 多年，但它仍然是当前互联网行业中少有的仍处在高速增长的赛道之一。甚至可以说，随着国民经济水平的不断提高，酒旅行业 的市场想象力还在不断放大。 看看过去几年 OTA 平台们的财报你就知道了。疫情恢复后的第一年，携程 2023 年营收增速高达 122%，体量稍小的同程旅行同样实现超 80%的营收增 速。即便是进入平稳恢复期的 2024 年，携程也依然保持着近 20% 的营收增长，同程更是高达 45.8%。 与之对比，包括电商、社交、游戏等在内的多个互联网赛道近年来增长已逐渐见顶，几家互联网巨头公司们的营收增速常年维持在个位数水平，部分公司 甚至呈现负增长。今年上半年中国互联网公司市值排名中，携程位列第 7， ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to increase investments in instant retail and food delivery services in the coming quarters, which will significantly impact short-term profitability, but these factors are already reflected in the stock price. The strong growth momentum in cloud computing and leading position in AI provide long-term value support [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Position - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba but lowers the target price from $176 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current stock price of $107.99 [1]. - Since April 2024, competition in food delivery and instant retail has intensified, with Meituan launching a three-year support plan worth 100 billion RMB and JD.com initiating a one-year subsidy project worth 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - Alibaba's food delivery strategy was launched later, with a one-year subsidy plan worth 500 billion RMB starting on July 2 [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Growth - Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail has rapidly increased from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 5, 2025, while Meituan holds 55% and JD.com 9% [2]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Taobao and Tmall, leadership consolidation, aggressive subsidy strategies, and traffic support [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - HSBC has raised revenue forecasts for Alibaba for FY26-28 by 3-8%, reflecting accelerated growth in instant retail and food delivery orders, but has lowered profit expectations by 7-22% [9]. - For FY26, Alibaba is expected to incur losses of 2.7 RMB per order in food delivery and 3.7 RMB per order in instant shopping, with an overall loss of 55 billion RMB in local life services [9][10]. - The peak of investment is anticipated in the September quarter, with normalization expected in the second half of FY26 [9]. Group 4: Cloud Computing and AI Outlook - HSBC remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud computing prospects, forecasting over 20% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for FY26, driven by strong AI demand [10][16]. - Although there may be quarterly fluctuations in cloud business gross margins, they are expected to maintain a high single-digit level [10]. - In the generative AI infrastructure as a service (GenAI IaaS) market, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 23.5% in the second half of 2024, benefiting from its leading scale, strong product capabilities, and large enterprise customer base [16].

"外卖战"愈发激烈，阿里继续"烧钱"模式。 据追风交易台消息，汇丰最新研报显示，阿里将在未来几个季度继续加大即时零售（Insta）和外卖业务（FD）投资。虽然阿里将大幅投资外卖和即时零 售业务拖累短期盈利，但这些因素已基本反映在股价中，云计算业务保持强劲增长势头，AI领域领先地位为长期价值提供支撑。该行依然维持阿里巴巴 买入评级，但将目标价从176美元下调至150美元，较当前股价107.99美元仍有38.9%上涨空间。 自2024年4月以来，外卖配送和即时零售竞争愈发激烈。美团在4月14日推出为期三年、总额1000亿元人民币的外卖支持计划，并在5月26日宣布"不惜一切 代价赢得竞争"。京东则在4月11日启动为期一年、总额100亿元人民币的外卖补贴项目。 对比之下，阿里"外卖战"相对较晚，其7月2日推出为期一年、总额500亿元人民币的外卖补贴计划。 但阿里增长势头迅猛。根据第三方数据，阿里在外卖和即时零售市场的份额从2024年的20%以上快速提升至2025年7月5日的36%，美团为55%，京东为 9%。这一显著增长得益于饿了么和飞猪整合进入淘宝天猫、领导层整合、激进补贴策略以及流量支持。 汇丰预计阿里巴巴将在未 ...

自5月上线以来，淘宝闪购日订单量已突破8000万。在高速增长过程中，淘宝闪购保持高质量的履约水 平，订单准时率达97%。 前不久，阿里巴巴集团宣布，饿了么、飞猪合并入阿里中国电商事业群。饿了么、飞猪继续保持公司化 管理模式，业务决策执行上与中国电商事业群集中目标、统一作战。 "此次调整体现了阿里巴巴对内部资源整合和优化的重视，能够更好地协调各业务板块之间的资源分配 和战略执行，提高决策效率和执行力。"盘古智库高级研究员江瀚认为，保持饿了么、飞猪的公司化管 理模式，能够在业务决策上保持一定的灵活性和自主性，以适应不同业务的特点和发展需求。 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭介绍，飞猪、饿了么、淘天合并后将发挥各自优势，构建更加完整的大消费服 务体系。特别是即时零售领域，淘宝闪购与饿了么将加强协同，全面打通各项资源。 行业人士分析，过去两个月，淘宝闪购协同各方展现出的业务潜力，促使阿里进一步坚定了加大投入、 整合资源的决心。此次调整，是为了给消费者提供更多优惠与便利，也为品牌及商家探索新的商业模式 和生意增长创造更大空间。 淘宝闪购与饿了么一起，描绘出阿里即时零售新蓝图，让基于淘宝天猫的闪购业务形成了新商业模式， 也给平台 ...

在刚刚过去的周末，即时零售补贴大战进一步白热化。 7月5日，当淘宝闪购、美团再次加大补贴力度，冲击外卖单量，部分用户突然发现，持续的外卖补贴之 外，补贴开始出现新方向，比如"预订酒店"。 7月6日晚间，有重庆用户向记者爆料，在淘宝闪购上点外卖，同时可以领优惠券预订"特价酒店"了。淘 宝集中推出价位在一二百元的低价酒店，降价幅度从18%到49%，甚至高达67%不等。 飞猪助攻"即时零售" 记者随即登陆淘宝闪购页面发现，只要将收货地址定位到重庆，原先"水果买菜"的"金刚位"就会被拿 下，取而代之的是"特价酒店"。 点击进入"特价酒店"页面，飞猪扑面而来，打出"全网低价、特价5折"的口号，用户可以领取45元消费 券再进行预订，参加活动的酒店清一色打上了"闪购"标。 "在远场、近场，电商会有更多结合的可能性。在未来一段时间内，我们重心会在积极投资上，把更多 淘宝用户转变成'即时零售'的用户。"蒋凡当时表示。 在业内人士看来，此番飞猪助攻即时零售，并入电商事业群后的角色也进一步清晰。6月23日，阿里巴 巴集团CEO吴泳铭宣布饿了么、飞猪合并入阿里中国电商事业群。接近阿里的人士曾对记者分析称，饿 了么作为即时零售基础设施 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is launching a massive subsidy plan of 50 billion yuan for Taobao Flash Sale, aiming to strengthen its position in the instant retail and food delivery market, with a goal to surpass Meituan in order volume within 2-3 months [3][5][19]. Group 1: Subsidy Plan Details - The 50 billion yuan subsidy plan is one of the largest in the history of the food delivery sector, targeting both consumers and merchants [5][6]. - For consumers, the plan includes large red envelopes, free meal cards, and official subsidized products across high-frequency categories like electronics, beauty, and fresh produce [5][6]. - For merchants, Taobao Flash Sale will offer store subsidies, product subsidies, delivery subsidies, and commission reductions to lower operational costs and ensure profit margins [5][6]. Group 2: Growth and Market Impact - Taobao Flash Sale has seen explosive growth, with daily orders increasing from 40 million on May 26 to 60 million by June 23, representing a year-on-year increase of 179% [6][7]. - The overall order volume in the instant retail market has risen from 100 million to 160 million daily, marking a 60% increase [6]. - The platform's success has created new growth opportunities across various categories, including beverages, apparel, and home goods, with some brands experiencing order increases of over 200% [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - The subsidy plan is part of Alibaba's broader strategy to transition from a comprehensive e-commerce platform to a "big consumption platform" [9][14]. - Recent organizational changes, including the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's e-commerce division, aim to create a seamless shopping experience across different consumption scenarios [11][12]. - Alibaba's ultimate goal is to enhance user engagement and frequency of purchases by building a closed-loop ecosystem of "product retail + lifestyle services" [15]. Group 4: Merchant Benefits - The subsidy plan is expected to provide a new business opportunity for merchants, encouraging a shift from price competition to quality and brand development [17][18]. - The plan will lower the entry barriers for small and medium-sized brands into the instant retail market, allowing them to expand their service radius and increase sales [18]. - If Taobao Flash Sale successfully matches Meituan's order volume, merchants could see significant growth in revenue and profits [19].

继今年"3800亿AI基建投资"之后，阿里再度宣布一项重要投资计划。 7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布启动规模高达500亿元的补贴计划，在12个月里直补消费者及商家。这份5个"百亿补贴"级别的计划特别提到，要以官方补贴和免佣减 佣等政策，来促进商家的生意增长。淘宝方面还表示，将以技术和商业模式创新，构建高效协同的"大消费平台"，并以巨大流量反哺线下商业和服务业。 淘宝闪购官宣500亿促消费计划微信公众号截图 这个"大消费平台"，到底指的是什么？ 阿里官方，至今没有对此进行明确定义。 不过，我们站在外部视角，或许仍可以看到"大消费"版图的一些基本轮廓。 淘宝闪购全国上线首日，茉莉奶白多城外卖订单日均上涨近3倍 从电商平台向大消费平台的演进，注定将深层次地改变淘天的底层逻辑。 7月3日，淘宝闪购公布了500亿补贴的"首日战报"，数据显示，补贴首日淘宝闪购订单显著增长，有589个零售品牌当日订单量比5月2日（淘宝闪购业务全量 上线）增长超100%。其中食品、药品、3C数码、运动鞋服、鲜花等品类在淘宝闪购的订单增幅显著。 阿里的电商业务，大部分是以实物商品线上交易的形式实现的——从淘宝、天猫，到闲鱼、1688，再到跨境和海外本 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba has announced significant management changes alongside its FY2025 annual report, with key executives like Cainiao CEO Wan Lin and Alibaba Entertainment Chairman Fan Luyuan stepping down [1] - The number of Alibaba partners has decreased to 17, down by more than half from its peak, indicating a strategic slimming down amid ongoing challenges [2] - The company has struggled with strategic direction since Jack Ma's departure, facing intense competition in e-commerce and cloud computing, and has been criticized for its inability to adapt quickly to market changes [2][6] Management Changes - The recent management reshuffle includes the exit of nine partners, including notable figures like Peng Lei and Dai Shan, reflecting a shift in leadership dynamics [2] - The appointment of Wu Yongming as CEO signals a change in strategy, emphasizing a transition from a platform giant to a diversified technology group [8][9] Strategic Challenges - Alibaba has faced multiple strategic missteps, including neglecting its core e-commerce platform and failing to capitalize on emerging market trends, leading to significant losses in market share to competitors like Pinduoduo and Douyin [5][6] - The company's attempts at restructuring, such as the split of its various business units, have not yielded the expected results, leading to operational inefficiencies and a lack of cohesive strategy [12][16] Future Directions - Alibaba plans to invest more in AI and cloud infrastructure, with a commitment to exceed the total investment of the past decade within the next three years [9] - The company is moving away from traditional retail strategies, as evidenced by the divestment of underperforming assets like Hema and Intime, and is focusing on online and membership models [11] Organizational Structure - The historical reliance on a decentralized, federated structure has proven ineffective for Alibaba, which is better suited to a centralized management approach [12][16] - The recent leadership changes aim to streamline operations and enhance collaboration across business units, countering the fragmentation caused by previous restructuring efforts [17][18]

其他电商和外卖平台也积极投身于这一战事：今年4月，京东高调入局餐饮外卖并在618期间宣布加大酒 旅业务投入，美团今年首次参战618并官宣全面拓展即时零售。 即时零售与本地生活正成为电商竞争的新战场，一场围绕消费者生活全方位服务的"大消费平台"之战已 悄然打响。 阿里电商整合 近期阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭发布全员邮件，宣布将饿了么、飞猪合并入阿里中国电商事业群。这意味 着阿里电商将进一步整合集团业务。 阿里表示，本次调整，是为了给消费者更好地提供优惠与便利，也为品牌及商家探索新的商业模式和生 意增长创造更大空间。飞猪、饿了么、淘天在各自领域有多年的能力和资源积淀，合并后将会发挥各自 优势和长项，构建更加完整的大消费服务体系。特别是即时零售领域，淘宝闪购与饿了么将加强协同， 全面打通各项资源。 吴泳铭在全员邮件中表示，这是阿里从电商平台走向大消费平台的战略升级。未来，阿里将更多从用户 角度出发，优化整合业务模式和组织形态，为用户创造更丰富优质的生活消费体验。 近日，阿里宣告将饿了么和飞猪合并入阿里中国电商事业群。这是阿里今年以来电商板块的第二次整 合，上一次是阿里将淘宝旗下的即时零售业务"小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购 ...

目前，高德、飞猪旅行两个Agent率先接入荣耀Magic V5，用户在与YOYO对话时输入意图指令， YOYO在理解用户意图后将直接调用相关Agent执行。此外，高德、飞猪旅行Agent还接入了荣耀智能体 商店、YOYO建议、服务负一屏卡片等入口。 凤凰网科技讯 7月2日，荣耀全新年度折叠旗舰手机荣耀Magic V5正式发布，该机型搭载了阿里巴巴基 于通义千问打造的高德、飞猪旅行两个智能体（Agent）及通义千问3、VL等大模型，这也是阿里首次 整合大模型及垂直场景Agent应用于智能手机终端。 在荣耀Magic V5发布会上，荣耀展示了基于通义千问开发的"一语问屏"功能。荣耀Magic V5搭载的通义 千问3、VL等大模型，支持用户通过荣耀AI助手YOYO上传文档，进行深度思考问答和联网搜索，还支 持在语音模式下体验口语陪练等多种互动场景，视频模式可识别真实物理世界进行实时互动。 此次接入的飞猪旅行Agent由飞猪为荣耀Magic V5量身打造，支持用户完成行程规划的制定、目的地探 索发现、附近景点美食推荐等，同时也能帮助用户快速预订火车票、机票、酒店等旅行相关基础服务。 高德Agent则是由高德云图研发、 ...