很多朋友问我："现在能不能追？"我的建议是，中长线投资者别盯着单日涨停慌。如果之前没进场，现在再冲进去，很容易"追高站岗"，不如等回调到之前 的合理估值区间，再用我这"三筛铁律"重新过一遍——只要估值没虚高、基本面没坏、风口没散，再考虑也不迟；如果已经持有的，就别被短期波动带偏， 多看看下游需求、公司业绩这些"长期信号"，只要核心逻辑没变，就不用急着卖。 我做投资这么多年，从财经记者到大家愿意叫我"帮主"，一直信奉"不赌短期、不追热点"，靠的就是这估值、基本面、风口三筛。后续北方稀土和包钢股份 的动态，我也会持续盯着，有新的变化，再跟大家慢慢聊。 需要我针对这两只股票后续的估值跟踪节点，整理一份简单的观察清单吗？这样你后续看盘时，能更清晰地对照"选股铁律"判断走势。 再到第二筛：基本面筛。这也是我做20年财经记者最看重的——公司"底子硬不硬"。北方稀土不用多说，是稀土行业的龙头，手里握着核心的稀土资源，下 游新能源车、风电这些行业对稀土的需求一直没断过，业绩稳得很；包钢股份更有意思，它不光有钢铁业务托底，还握着稀土矿，跟北方稀土是"深度绑 定"的关系，相当于"手里有矿，心里不慌"。俩公司的基本面都没"爆雷点" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has surged to 99%, marking the first cut since December 2024, which is expected to reignite global liquidity and create significant opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to provide "triple thrust" for non-ferrous metals: 1. A 1% decline in the US dollar index typically results in a 2.3% increase in prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum. Current LME copper prices have surpassed $9,700 per ton, with expectations to exceed $10,500 post-rate cut [3] 2. Lower financing costs will alleviate financial pressures on mining giants, enhancing capital expenditure flexibility [3] 3. Inflation trading is expected to resurge, with gold's role as an inflation hedge becoming more prominent. Global gold ETF inflows surged 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with COMEX gold prices exceeding $3,600 per ounce [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Key performance indicators highlight companies with strong fundamentals: 1. Zijin Mining's net profit is projected to increase by 42% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with copper mining costs controlled below $3,800 per ton, compared to the industry average of $4,500 [4] 2. Yunnan Aluminum's hydropower aluminum costs are $2,000 per ton lower than thermal power, with a gross margin increase to 21.7% [4] 3. The demand for copper in electric vehicles is significantly higher, with 83 kg per vehicle compared to 23 kg for traditional cars, and solar installations consuming 500 tons of copper per GW, indicating a locked-in demand for upstream resources [5] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The non-ferrous sector currently has a PE ratio of approximately 24, but there is significant internal differentiation: 1. Lithium stocks are overvalued, with PE ratios exceeding 40 (e.g., Ganfeng Lithium at 45), while lithium carbonate prices remain low, raising concerns about earnings realization [6] 2. Copper and aluminum leaders have PE ratios below 15 (e.g., Zijin Mining at 13), with institutional forecasts predicting over 30% net profit growth in 2025, indicating substantial valuation recovery potential [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes: 1. Positioning with a total allocation of ≤15%, prioritizing a combination of gold (as an inflation hedge) and copper (due to industrial demand) [7] 2. Buying opportunities are suggested based on the Fed's rate cut magnitude, with a 50 basis point cut prompting immediate buying, while a 25 basis point cut would warrant waiting for a pullback [7] 3. Strict stop-loss rules are advised, with a 8% loss threshold for individual stocks and a sell-off if prices fall below the 20-day moving average [7] Group 5: Key Stocks to Watch - Notable stocks include: 1. Zijin Mining (601899): A global copper mining leader, with short-term performance linked to the recovery of the Kamoa copper mine [8] 2. Shandong Gold (600547): The largest domestic gold producer, benefiting from a cost advantage over peers [8] 3. Yunnan Aluminum (000807): A benchmark for hydropower aluminum, with ongoing premium for green aluminum [8]