Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market for rebar and hot-rolled coil presents a wait-and-see attitude with wide fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 0.75% increase, trading volume was 1,202,766 lots, and the position decreased by 56,263 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, trading volume was 561,631 lots, and the position decreased by 1,559 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 9 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 increased by 6 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and the spot coil-to-rebar spread also changed [1] 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease in daily output month-on-month), 20.41 million tons of pig iron (a 4.5% decrease in daily output month-on-month), and 23 million tons of steel (a 0.5% increase in daily output month-on-month) [2] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total output of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 7.65 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 2.79 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.17 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 8.31 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties decreased by 15.9 tons [2][3] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stated to govern disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with the law and promote the governance of production capacity in key industries [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment of rebar and hot-rolled coil has cooled down, showing a weak and volatile trend [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-4.19%); the closing price of HC2510 was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (-3.56%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,730,966 lots, with a position of 1,816,026 lots, a decrease of 213,107 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 1,070,244 lots, with a position of 1,433,936 lots, a decrease of 139,278 lots [3] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 70, 100, 70, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 90, 90, 70, and 70 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 40 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 remained unchanged, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 12 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar decreased by 18 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data**: In terms of production, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.79 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar demand decreased by 13.17 tons, hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 8.31 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties decreased by 15.9 tons [4] - **Policy News**: The Politburo meeting pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new quality productivity, and regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors [4][5] - **Steel Production Data**: In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.944 million tons, a daily increase of 0.6%; and 20.80 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.080 million tons, a daily increase of 4.6% [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is -1, and the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a weak trend [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract 2509 of coke futures continued to strengthen oscillatingly, and the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures hit the daily limit in the afternoon. The coking coal 2509 contract reached a new high since December 19 last year. The closing price of J2509 was 1763 yuan/ton, up 2.38%, with a trading volume of 65,730 lots and a position of 37,395 lots, a decrease of 746 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.05 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2509 was 1259 yuan/ton, up 7.98%, with a trading volume of 2,189,213 lots and a position of 519,305 lots, an increase of 55,992 lots, and a capital inflow of 11.82 billion yuan [5] - The long - short comparison and deviation of the top 20 positions in black - series futures on July 25 are as follows: RB2510 had a long - short difference of 20,113 lots with a deviation of 1.58%; HC2510 had a long - short difference of - 13,013 lots with a deviation of - 1.18%; SS2509 had a long - short difference of - 71 lots with a deviation of - 0.09%; J2509 had a long - short difference of - 1,018 lots with a deviation of - 4.26%; JM2509 had a long - short difference of - 4,481 lots with a deviation of - 1.54%; I2509 had a long - short difference of - 766 lots with a deviation of - 0.22% [6] Group 3: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On July 25, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1320 yuan/ton, and that in Tangshan was 1250 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1305 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1449 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1400 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1250 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1220 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1380 yuan/ton, with no change [8] - On July 25, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract declined slightly after a dead - cross the previous day; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value turning down slightly, but the K and D values continuing to rise slightly. The daily MACD red bars of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts have been expanding for 5 consecutive trading days [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - On July 22, the National Energy Administration proposed to order coal mines with monthly raw coal production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity from January to June 2025 to stop production for rectification and impose penalties [10] - In terms of fundamentals, for coke, the coke output of independent coking plants has rebounded for 2 consecutive weeks from the new low since early April, and the coke output of steel mills has rebounded slightly from the low since late February. The coke inventories at ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks and reached a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in a loss for 10 consecutive weeks, and the second - round price increase of coke spot from July 21 to 24 was implemented, with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [10] - For coking coal, from January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have dropped significantly, with declines of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early February, the port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase of steel mill inventory, coking plants actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price generally increased by 100 - 230 yuan/ton compared with late June [11] - Checking coal mine production is beneficial to stabilizing coal supply and effectively governing the low - price disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation of the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a significant contraction in domestic supply. Coupled with the large decline in imports from May to June and the significant decline in coal washing plant inventory, the futures prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded and risen significantly recently. In the future, one should be vigilant against the risk of large fluctuations caused by the reversal of the market after the price further soars. It may be a better strategy for those who have made buy - hedging or investors to take profit in the target range or around the end of July [11] Group 5: Industry News - From July 23 to 24, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a seminar for local state - owned assets supervision and administration commission directors, requiring high - quality completion of the in - depth improvement action of state - owned enterprise reform, high - starting - point planning of the next - stage reform measures, and optimization of the allocation of state - owned capital [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to further clarify the identification standards of improper price behaviors [13] - The State Administration for Market Regulation exposed a number of typical cases of "involution - type" competition violations in the quality field and will continue to promote the rectification work [13] - In June, the domestic steel market declined oscillatingly, and in July, it showed a slight rebound under multiple factors [13] - Huaibei Mining implements a "yearly volume - locking, quarterly price - locking" pricing mechanism for coking coal [13] - In the first half of 2025, Xinjiang's raw coal output reached 2.79 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [13] - On July 24, Guizhou Province issued a work plan to establish and improve the carbon emission statistics, accounting, and dual - control system [13] - From July 24 to 25, 15 rivers in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. experienced floods exceeding the warning level [14] - Anglo American's iron ore output in the second quarter of 2025 was 15.936 million wet tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and its metallurgical coal output was 2.056 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [14] - Fortescue's iron ore output in the 2025 fiscal year was 239 million wet tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [14] - Mongolian Mining Corporation's raw coal output in the second quarter of 2025 was 3.4284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [14] - The IEA's Coal Mid - year Report shows that global coal demand is expected to remain basically unchanged in the next two years [14] - In June 2025, Mongolia's coal railway transportation volume was 1.0801 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.51% [15] - In June 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 54.5848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73% [15] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, coking plant and steel mill production and capacity utilization, iron water output, coke and coking coal inventories, and basis [16][18][22][28][29][30]