Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel prices have seen a slight increase this week, but demand remains weak, leading to concerns about the market's ability to absorb supply pressure. The industry anticipates continued price fluctuations and is closely monitoring macroeconomic policies and production plans from steel mills [3][5]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - Stainless steel futures prices rebounded slightly this week, with the main contract closing at 12,500, reflecting a 1.09% increase. However, trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The current market is characterized by weak demand, primarily driven by essential purchases, as the overall consumption power is insufficient to support prices. The inventory levels remain high, and the market is experiencing mixed performance in transactions [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The stainless steel spot price increased by 50 yuan this week, but the market is still in a traditional off-season with declining downstream demand. Traders are under pressure to reduce prices for cash flow as year-end approaches [4][5]. - The macroeconomic environment has seen many monetary policies introduced, but fiscal policy implementation has been slow, limiting the stimulus effect on the real economy. The supply side is expected to ease as steel mills increase maintenance in December, potentially reducing supply pressure [4][5]. Inventory and Production Insights - The registered warehouse inventory for stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,500 tons to 61,619 tons this week, indicating ongoing inventory reduction. However, the market's ability to digest inventory remains a concern [4][5].

Price Trends - As of June 19, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 12,700 CNY/ton, and in Foshan, it is 12,800 CNY/ton, both remaining stable day-on-day [1] - The base price has decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 295 CNY/ton [1] Raw Material Insights - The weather impact in the Philippines has lessened, leading to improved shipping efficiency, with 1.3% nickel ore trading at FOB 36 and CIF 45 to Indonesia [1] - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to drop by 0.3-0.5 USD in June [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are declining, with a procurement price of 940 CNY/nickel (including tax) reported by a steel mill in South China [1] Supply and Production Data - In June, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3623 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.7912 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1] Inventory Levels - As of June 20, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 534,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 114,869 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,116 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen a slight increase in prices, but overall trading remains cautious with no significant improvement in transactions [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stable, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% [3] - The supply side remains high, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase 300 series production while reducing 400 series output [3] Demand and Seasonal Trends - Overall demand is weak, with manufacturing orders recovering slowly, leading to procurement primarily based on immediate needs [3] - The stainless steel market is entering a seasonal destocking phase, but the pace of inventory reduction has been slow this year [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a reference range for the main contract set between 12,400 and 13,000 CNY [4]

【操作建议】主力参考12600-13200 【短期观点】偏弱震荡 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【库存】社会库存周度数据整体回落，仓单近期一定减少。截至6月6日，无锡和佛山300系社会库存 52.02万吨，周环比增加0.93万吨。6月9日不锈钢期货库存121663吨，周环比减少8327吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面小幅走弱，近期现货市场交投氛围偏弱，终端采购以刚需为主，大多终端下游 加工企业处于谨慎备货采买状态。宏观方面暂稳，交易逻辑回归基本面，美联储会议态度偏鹰，联邦基 金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。菲律宾方面天气影响有所减弱，装船效率有所回升；印尼镍矿 6月（一期）内贸基准价下跌0.02美元左右，升水+26-28，整体价格环比基本持平，雨季影响下镍矿供 应仍偏紧。铬 ...

Market Overview - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak trading sentiment, with end-user purchases primarily driven by necessity, and traders reporting orders mainly for small to medium-sized replenishments [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% [3] Price Trends - As of June 4, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is 13,100 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the price in Foshan is 13,050 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic nickel iron market is stable, with prices around 960-970 CNY/nickel (including tax) [1] Supply and Production - In May, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.4899 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% but a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory Levels - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with Wuxi and Foshan 300 series social inventory at 510,800 tons, down 20,200 tons week-on-week [2] - As of June 4, stainless steel futures inventory is 124,391 tons, a decrease of 10,220 tons week-on-week [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The nickel ore market in the Philippines is facing shipment delays due to rainfall, with no transactions finalized yet [1] - Indonesian nickel ore domestic benchmark prices have decreased by approximately $0.02, with supply remaining tight due to the rainy season [1][3] Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand balance remains under pressure, with expectations of weak fluctuations in the market, and the main trading range is anticipated to be between 12,600 and 13,200 CNY [4]