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不锈钢:盘面持续偏弱震荡 原料持续承压需求不足
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-25 02:20
【现货】据Mysteel,截至11月24日,无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12700元/吨,日环比持平;佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12600元/吨,日环比下跌50元/吨;基差535元/吨,日环比下跌45元/吨。 【原料】矿端消持稳为主,招标落地市场相对平静。菲律宾方面,北部Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地至42 美元/湿吨、Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地;印尼方面,11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2 美元/湿吨,内贸升水方面,当前主流升水维持+26。镍铁价格区间继续下移,下游主流钢厂镍铁招标新 低下跌至880元/镍(舱底含税),铁厂生产积极性不高,对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。不锈钢低迷氛围 间接影响铬铁市场走弱,铬铁供应压力加大,叠加铬矿价格走跌,原料成本支撑下滑。 【供应】据Mysteel统计10月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量351.38万吨,月环比增加8.71万吨,增幅 2.54%,同比增加6.8%;300系180万吨,月环比增加3.73万吨,增幅2.1%,同比增加6.6%。11月排产 45.51万吨,月环比减少1.67%,同比增加4.1%;其中300系178.7万吨,月环比减少0.7%,同比 ...
不锈钢:盘面震荡为主 原料承压钢厂排产增加
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-31 02:09
Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability, with Wuxi and Foshan's 304 cold-rolled prices holding at 12,950 CNY/ton as of October 30, 2023, while the basis has increased by 80 CNY/ton to 395 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, with the Philippines entering the rainy season, leading to reduced supply, while Indonesia's nickel ore supply is relatively ample [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is on the rise, with September's output increasing by 3.35% month-on-month and 4.32% year-on-year, and October's production expected to continue this trend [2] Supply and Production - In September, 43 domestic stainless steel mills produced 3.4267 million tons of crude steel, a month-on-month increase of 11.11 million tons [2] - October's crude steel output is projected at 3.4472 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 4.75% [2] - The 300 series production in September was 1.7627 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Social inventory is slightly decreasing, but the pace is slow, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 492,200 tons, down by 2,700 tons week-on-week [2] - As of October 30, stainless steel futures inventory was 73,777 tons, a decrease of 599 tons week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak, with nickel iron prices under pressure, and domestic and Indonesian iron mills facing increasing losses [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - The nickel iron market is currently quoted between 935-940 CNY/nickel (tax included), indicating a widening psychological price gap between supply and demand [1][3] - The chromium market is also under pressure due to weak stainless steel demand, leading to increased supply pressure and declining chromium ore prices [1][3] - Overall, the macroeconomic sentiment shows improvement, but demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, leading to increased pressure from both supply and inventory [3]
不锈钢:盘面震荡小幅上涨 成本支撑基本面仍偏弱
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-30 02:16
Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with slight fluctuations in production and inventory levels, indicating a cautious approach from traders [1][2][3] Supply - In September, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants reached 3.4267 million tons, an increase of 111,000 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 3.35% [2] - The production for October is projected at 3.4472 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 4.75% [2] Inventory - Social inventory has seen a slight reduction, but the pace remains slow; as of October 24, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan was 495,000 tons, down by 6,900 tons week-on-week [2] - As of October 28, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 73,896 tons, a decrease of 723 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is characterized by a weak atmosphere, with nickel prices remaining firm while nickel pig iron prices are under pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian steel mills [3] - The chromium market is also experiencing weakness, influenced by the low demand for stainless steel and increased supply pressure [3] - Overall, the macroeconomic sentiment shows improvement, but demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, leading to potential increases in supply pressure for steel mills [3]
商品普涨带动镍价反弹
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of nickel prices is driven by the general rise in commodities. The overall nickel market shows an oversupply situation in the current and next years. The nickel price is expected to continue to move within a range, and the stainless - steel price has limited upward space due to weak demand expectations [4][5][6]. - The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with the US electrification process slowing down and European subsidies stimulating sales. The ternary material in the nickel sulfate market is growing, but the precursor supply is tight [61][66][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1价差追踪与库存 - Global nickel inventory is at a high level. The global visible inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons remaining basically flat this week, SHFE inventory at 36,000 tons with an increase in domestic delivery volume, and SMM's six - location social inventory at 48,800 tons with a slight increase [14]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is at a low level and remains flat [19]. 3.2基本面分析 3.2.1镍 - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 3 million tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in October will remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic refined nickel supply from January to August 2025 was 3 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [27]. - **Demand**: The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 2.16 million tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly month - on - month in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly relying on the stainless - steel PMI remaining at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [30]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and the demand is weak, limiting the upward space. The nickel ore price is stable, providing cost support. The LME nickel inventory increased slightly this week, remaining above 250,000 tons. The macro sentiment remains neutral, and the power to drive nickel out of the shock range is insufficient. The nickel price will continue to move within the range. For single - side trading, it is expected to be in a wide - range shock; for options, sell the wide - straddle option combination [6]. 3.2.2不锈钢 - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory has peaked and declined due to the start of the rainy season in the Philippines. The Indonesian domestic trade premium remains stable, and the second - round benchmark price in October was slightly raised, with the full price remaining firm [32]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increases, and the price is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September shows an increasing trend, and the high - nickel iron price is under pressure due to factors such as market supply and demand [33]. - **Chromium Series**: The chromium ore price has been weakening for two consecutive weeks. The long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased by 200 yuan month - on - month [39]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel remains high, while the market price is relatively low, resulting in cost inversion [44]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the production in both countries increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate, providing support for stainless - steel demand. The production of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see. For single - side trading, sell on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure at the 13,000 level [9][10]. 3.2.3新能源汽车 - **Domestic Market**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The production of power cells follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.6% to 861.04 GWh from January to September, and a month - on - month increase of 9.1% in October [61]. - **International Market**: CleanTechnica statistics show that the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles from January to August 2025 increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to August 2025 increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, while the cumulative sales volume in the US from January to August 2025 increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles, stimulating sales growth this year. China's cumulative new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [66]. 3.2.4硫酸镍 - **Market**: The cumulative production of nickel sulfate in China from January to September decreased by 13.6% year - on - year to 246,000 tons. The cumulative production of ternary precursors from January to September decreased by 13% year - on - year to 540,000 tons, while the cumulative production of ternary cathode materials from January to September increased by 12% year - on - year to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices [68]. - **Raw Materials**: The production of Indonesian MHP from January to September increased by 53% year - on - year to 325,000 tons, while the production of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to September decreased by 34% year - on - year to 138,000 tons. This year, the sulfur price has risen significantly, increasing the cost of hydrometallurgy, and the MHP cost has increased, with the price remaining firm [72]. 3.2.5纯镍 - The large increase in pure nickel imports leads to an obvious domestic surplus situation [73].
不锈钢周报:现货价格下调,成本支撑减弱-20251018
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-18 13:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The demand recovery after the holiday was lower than expected, coupled with the weakening of spot prices and a bearish market sentiment. It is expected that stainless steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On October 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 940 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,630 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,900/655,200/203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 1.02% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.69%, and the unloading volume was 66,700 tons. The spot price of chrome ore continued to consolidate weakly, and the transaction price of ferrochrome loosened; at the same time, the mainstream prices of domestic and Indonesian nickel iron also showed a weak downward trend, weakening the cost support for stainless steel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Price Data**: On October 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 940 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,630 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17% [17]. - **Market Quotation and Position Data**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about 20 yuan (- 1) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about 170 yuan (+ 59) over the main contract. The trading position on the disk was 269,578 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75% [20]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 80 (- 55), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Domestic Production Data**: In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [11][27][30]. - **Indonesian Production and Import Data**: It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%; in August, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.40% [33]. - **Export Data**: In August, the net export volume of stainless steel was 330,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%; from January to August, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand Side - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11][40]. - **Home Appliance and Fuel Processing Industry Data**: In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3% [11][43]. - **Elevator and Automobile Data**: In August, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%; in August, the automobile sales volume was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons [50]. - **Inventory by Series and Shipping Data**: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,900/655,200/203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 1.02% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.69%, and the unloading volume was 66,700 tons [53]. 3.6. Cost Side - **Nickel Ore Data**: In August, the import volume of nickel ore was 6.3467 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.92% and a year - on - year increase of 29.87%; currently, the quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 15.2884 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86% [57]. - **Nickel Iron Data**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently at a loss of 84 yuan/nickel [60]. - **Chrome Ore and Ferrochrome Data**: The quotation of chrome ore last week was 56.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,500 yuan/50 base tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In September, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - **Production Profit Data**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 6,741 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 5.39% [66].
不锈钢:盘面震荡产业心态偏弱 需求兑现仍不足
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-17 02:15
Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with specific increases in cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a mixed sentiment among traders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, particularly from the Philippines, while domestic nickel iron prices are under pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian steel mills [3] - Overall, the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase, but demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressures [2][3] Pricing and Market Trends - As of October 16, Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price is 13,000 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton day-on-day, while Foshan Hongwang's price is stable at 12,900 CNY/ton [1] - The base price has increased by 45 CNY/ton to 555 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore from the Philippines is auctioned at FOB 43.5, with domestic nickel iron prices stabilizing around 945-950 CNY/nickel [1][3] Supply and Production - In September, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.4513 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 135,700 tons, or 4.09% [1] - October's production is projected at 3.488 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% [1] - The 300 series production in October is expected to be 1.8217 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 2,339 tons to 85,166 tons [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with traders showing limited willingness to adjust prices despite lower spot prices compared to the latest agent prices [3] - Macro risks are increasing, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, and new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations [3]
不锈钢:宏观风险放大产业心态偏弱 需求兑现仍不足
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-15 02:14
Core Insights - The current market for stainless steel is experiencing price declines, with specific prices for 304 cold-rolled steel in Wuxi and Foshan at 12,950 CNY per ton, down 50 CNY from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic nickel ore prices expected to rise by 0.2-0.3 USD in September, while nickel iron prices are stable but face pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian iron plants [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is on the rise, with an estimated output of 3.45 million tons in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] Price Trends - As of October 14, the cold-rolled stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan are both at 12,950 CNY per ton, showing a daily decrease of 50 CNY [1] - The base price has increased by 40 CNY to 55 CNY per ton [1] Supply and Inventory - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to increase to 3.49 million tons in October, a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan has risen to 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently facing weak macroeconomic conditions, with prices generally below the latest agent prices, leading to limited willingness among traders to adjust prices [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, while new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations, resulting in increased bargaining space for traders but limited volume [3] Operational Recommendations - The main trading range is suggested to be between 12,400 and 12,800 CNY, with a short-term outlook indicating weak fluctuations [4]
不锈钢:宏观风险放大 产业需求兑现仍不足
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-14 02:08
Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price declines, with 304 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan both at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic nickel ore benchmark prices expected to rise by 0.2-0.3 USD in September, while nickel iron prices are stable around 950-960 yuan/nickel [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is increasing, with an estimated output of 3.45 million tons in September, a month-on-month increase of 4.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore transaction volumes have increased, with Philippine shipments showing decent efficiency, while Indonesian nickel ore supply is relatively ample but with declining grades [1] - The market for nickel iron is characterized by limited transactions and significant price negotiation differences between supply and demand [1] Supply Dynamics - Stainless steel production is projected to rise to 3.49 million tons in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [1] - The 300 series production is expected to reach 1.82 million tons in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year increase of 7.86% [1] Inventory Trends - Social inventory reduction is slow, with 300 series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan at 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased to 85,166 tons, down 2,339 tons week-on-week [2] Market Sentiment - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with current spot prices generally below the latest agent prices, leading to reduced willingness among traders to adjust prices [3] - Despite seasonal and policy factors improving demand expectations, the actual demand during the peak season has not significantly increased, leading to pressure on inventory reduction [3]
新模式降成本,江苏三市进出口转运驶上“快速路”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 05:40
Core Insights - The cross-border trade facilitation initiative launched by the General Administration of Customs aims to implement 29 measures to enhance trade efficiency, with pilot cities including Nanjing, Wuxi, and Yancheng [2][5]. Group 1: Cross-Border Trade Facilitation Measures - A pilot program for "circular packaging" for lithium battery exports has significantly reduced packaging costs by approximately 80%, with a total export value of 12 million yuan [4][5]. - The new "airside direct access" model has improved customs clearance efficiency by about 70% and reduced logistics costs by approximately 30% for goods exported from Yancheng [5][6]. - The implementation of a "public-rail-water-sea" multimodal transport system has streamlined logistics, reducing overall transport time by over 30% [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on Local Businesses - The introduction of the international mail exchange station in Wuxi has shortened the shipping time for international mail by 1-2 days and significantly lowered logistics costs [7]. - The cross-border trade facilitation measures have been positively received by local businesses, with companies reporting enhanced operational efficiency and reduced costs [7][8].
不锈钢:盘面震荡小幅走强 关注下游节前备库情况
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-25 02:01
Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with slight fluctuations in production and inventory levels [1][2][3] Pricing - As of September 24, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price in Foshan is 13,200 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic benchmark prices expected to rise by $0.2-$0.3 in September [1][3] Raw Materials - Nickel iron prices are stable, with procurement prices around 950 yuan/nickel (including tax) [1][3] - Chromium ore costs are supported by reduced supply in August, leading to increased chromium iron prices [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2795 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 68,700 tons (2.14%) but a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [1] - The forecast for September crude steel output is 3.4021 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a total of 472,000 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan as of September 19, down by 6,000 tons week-on-week [2] - As of September 24, stainless steel futures inventory is 88,233 tons, a decrease of 7,032 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing slight strength, but demand for pre-holiday inventory is not significant, leading to subdued transaction volumes [3] - Seasonal and policy factors are expected to improve demand expectations, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [3]