Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and raw material prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics [3] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are showing strong support at the bottom, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising to $32-35 per wet ton, and CIF prices for nickel at 1.4% from the Philippines increasing to $63 per wet ton [1] - High nickel pig iron prices are reported to be around 1100 yuan per nickel (including tax), indicating a rising trend in market quotes [1][3] Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to reach 3.426 million tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [1] - February's stainless steel crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [1] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts, with certain mills undergoing maintenance [1] Inventory - Social inventory is accumulating, with a reported increase in warehouse receipts. As of February 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan reached 470,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,700 tons [2] - As of February 24, stainless steel futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 60,810 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,287 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is maintaining a strong oscillation, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and raw material prices. The introduction of a 10% global tariff by the U.S. is a key factor to monitor [3] - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence and procurement slowing down due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - Overall, the market is expected to experience slow recovery in supply and demand, with ongoing cost and demand negotiations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless steel market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern after the Spring Festival. The key factors affecting prices in the short - term are post - festival inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. Supply contraction is obvious with a 23% month - on - month decrease in February production, which may relieve post - festival inventory pressure. The actual demand recovery of downstream manufacturing after the Lantern Festival needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the changes in Indonesia's nickel - iron policy, downstream demand recovery, and macro - sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, an increase of 12,040 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest was 100,602 lots, and the settlement price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a rise of 205 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Stainless steel main product prices remained stable. In the South China market, 304 cold - rolled coil prices were in the range of 13,800 - 13,890 yuan/ton, 430 cold - rolled coil prices were in the range of 7,250 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and 201 series prices were in the range of 7,100 - 8,100 yuan/ton. Stainless steel wire prices were mainly stable, with the 304 φ5.5 - 16 Qingshan white - line quoted at 14,600 yuan/ton in the Dainan market and 316L φ5.5 - 16 Qingshan quoted at 26,800 yuan/ton. In the stainless steel round - bar market, the Qingshan 304 round - bar was quoted at 13,900 yuan/ton and 316L round - bar at 25,100 yuan/ton in the Wenzhou market. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading was light, and actual transactions were scarce [3] 3.3 Influencing Factors - In the raw material market, nickel prices showed an upward trend. On February 12, the nickel spot price index was 143,057 yuan/ton, a rise of 2,765 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Chromium - iron prices remained stable, with the JCr99 - A Shanghai market price at 73,000 yuan/ton and the Jinzhou market price at 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - Technically, stainless steel futures prices have shown an oscillating trend recently. After hitting a low on February 2, the main contract rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. Trading volume gradually shrank before the festival, and changes in open interest indicated a decrease in market participation [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the stainless steel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the short - term, post - festival inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm are key price - influencing factors. Supply contraction is significant, with a 23% month - on - month decrease in February production, which may relieve post - festival inventory pressure. Downstream manufacturing is expected to gradually resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the actual demand recovery needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's nickel - iron policy, downstream demand recovery, and macro - sentiment [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's own copper production increased by 9% year-on-year to 268,100 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The guidance for copper production in 2026 is set at 810,000 to 870,000 tons [1][3] - The company's cobalt production in Q4 2025 was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 35% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter. The total cobalt production for 2025 was 36,100 tons, down 5% year-on-year [1][3] - Zinc production in Q4 2025 was 260,000 tons, a decrease of 1% year-on-year but an increase of 6% quarter-on-quarter. The total zinc production for 2025 was 969,400 tons, up 7% year-on-year [1][3] - The company reported a total gold production of 156,000 ounces (4.85 tons) in Q4 2025, down 20% year-on-year but up 6% quarter-on-quarter. The total gold production for 2025 was 604,000 ounces (18.79 tons), down 18% year-on-year [2][3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban in Q4 2025 and implemented an export quota system, which is expected to impact the company's cobalt export strategy positively [5][3] Production Overview - Q4 2025 production figures: - Copper: 268,100 tons, up 9% YoY, up 12% QoQ - Cobalt: 7,600 tons, down 35% YoY, down 21% QoQ - Zinc: 260,000 tons, down 1% YoY, up 6% QoQ - Lead: 46,200 tons, down 7% YoY, up 11% QoQ - Nickel: 19,500 tons, down 3% YoY, up 23% QoQ - Gold: 156,000 ounces (4.85 tons), down 20% YoY, up 6% QoQ - Silver: 5,607,000 ounces (174.40 tons), up 5% YoY, down 2% QoQ [1][2][3] Future Guidance - The company expects to produce between 810,000 and 870,000 tons of copper in 2026, with cobalt production not specified [6][3] - The cobalt export quota for 2026 includes 16,100 tons from KCC and 6,700 tons from Mutanda, with a total allocation of 22,800 tons [6][3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a period of price stability and cautious procurement, with supply adjustments and inventory accumulation observed ahead of the holiday season [1][2][3]. Pricing - As of February 9, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,150 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 14,100 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The basis price is 585 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 65 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices from the Philippines have increased, with a 1.3% FOB price rising to $45 per wet ton [1]. - The nickel ore premium has risen to approximately $28, influenced by a decrease in the volume of applications compared to the quota [1]. - High nickel pig iron prices are currently around 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax) [1]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to reach 3.426 million tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [1]. - February's stainless steel crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [1]. - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and starting maintenance ahead of the holiday [1]. Inventory - The overall trading atmosphere is calm, with traders focusing on fulfilling pre-holiday orders, leading to a slight accumulation of social inventory [2]. - As of February 6, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 458,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 900 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 53,523 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9,705 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a lack of active trading and a cautious procurement approach from steel mills [3]. - The demand side is struggling to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing a divergence in purchasing activity [3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is weak, with expectations for a slow recovery in supply and demand fundamentals [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 13,300 - 14,200 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the 03 - 04 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,580 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 480 lots; the main contract position is 41,399 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,769 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 53,523 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,723 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 139,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, a six - month high, and the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, a one - year low [2] - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. Domestic nickel - iron plants' raw material inventories are tightening; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and nickel - iron production will face production cut pressure [2] 3.7 Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the nickel - iron price has risen, and the cost - end support has shifted upward. Moreover, there are more steel mill overhauls at the end of the year, and the output increase is relatively limited [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, but the stainless steel export volume still maintains high growth, indicating strong export demand resilience. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall trading atmosphere tends to be calm, and traders mainly focus on delivering pre - holiday processing orders. The overall resource consumption speed slows down, and the national stainless steel social inventory enters seasonal accumulation [2] 3.8 Technical Aspect - The position has decreased and the price has adjusted, and both long and short sides are trading cautiously [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price declines due to weak macroeconomic sentiment and pressure from raw material nickel prices [3] Supply - In January 2026, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The 300 series output is estimated at 1.7957 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 48,500 tons (2.78%) and a year-on-year increase of 20.76% [2] - February's crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and starting maintenance ahead of the holiday [2] Inventory - The trading atmosphere is calm, with traders focusing on fulfilling pre-holiday orders, leading to insufficient restocking demand [2] - As of January 30, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - On February 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,818 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,880 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is under pressure from macroeconomic factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to hawkish expectations for U.S. monetary policy [3] - Nickel ore prices are rising due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines and increased demand from smelters [3] - The market for high-nickel pig iron is quiet, with prices around 10,600-10,800 yuan per nickel (including tax) [3] - The supply of ferrochrome is also tight, maintaining relatively high retail prices [3] Demand - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence [3] - Construction projects are slowing down, leading to weak procurement from downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on 300 series stainless steel production is 485,000 tons due to production cuts before and after the holiday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with cautious downstream purchasing and price stabilization ahead of the holiday season [3] Pricing - As of January 28, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Foshan, the price is 14,300 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The basis price is 205 yuan/ton, which has increased by 75 yuan/ton day-on-day [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices have surged to 28-32 USD/wet ton due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines and slow approval processes for new quotas [1][3] - The market for high-nickel pig iron is quiet, with suppliers quoting prices around 1,080-1,100 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1] - The retail price of ferrochrome remains firm due to limited spot resources and a slowdown in supply growth [1] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] - January's expected crude steel output is 3.4065 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [1] - Steel mills are increasing production cuts ahead of the holiday, with multiple announcements of production halts [1] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with 300 series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan at 453,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,200 tons [2] - As of January 28, the stainless steel futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 39,654 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,398 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a general lack of trading activity as downstream purchasing remains cautious [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by domestic policies aimed at guiding high-quality industry transformation [3] - Overall, while cost support is strengthening, weak demand and ample supply are limiting upward price movement, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with cautious pricing strategies amid fluctuating raw material costs and demand pressures [3] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [2] - The production forecast for January is 3.4065 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [2] - The 300 series output is expected to be 1.7632 million tons in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 12.58% [2] Inventory - Social inventory continues to decrease, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous week, with a total of 450,700 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, a week-on-week decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - As of January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory was 38,256 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,635 tons [2] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices in the Philippines have been rising, with the Benguet mine's 1.25% nickel ore auction price reaching $32.5 [1] - Indonesia's HPM benchmark price for January has been raised to $29.04 per wet ton for 1.6% grade, significantly higher than the previous half-month [1] - High nickel pig iron prices are trending upwards, with market negotiation ranges moving to 1,020-1,030 yuan per nickel (tax included) [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with cautious selling sentiment among agents and limited inquiries [3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, creating space for further interest rate cuts [3] - Despite improved profits leading to increased production plans, demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - Overall, while raw material cost support is strengthening, the combination of ample supply and weak demand is limiting upward price movement, with short-term expectations of range-bound trading between 13,800 and 14,600 [3]

Group 1 - The South African Minister of Electricity and Energy, Ramokhopa, emphasized that the costs of solutions to save the chrome smelting industry cannot be subsidized by other consumers [1] - A memorandum of understanding was signed between Eskom, Samancor Chrome, and Glencore–Merafe Chrome Venture to finalize an electricity pricing solution by March [1] - The chrome industry has been severely impacted by high electricity costs, which account for approximately 45% of processing fixed costs, making it unprofitable compared to Chinese competitors [1] Group 2 - The original price of chrome ore is about $150 per ton, but its value can reach $1,150 per ton after refining, highlighting the economic potential of the industry [1] - Ramokhopa is meeting with CEOs of global mining companies to discuss a proposed solution involving low-cost coal from "stranded assets" to reduce electricity prices for smelting plants from approximately 135 cents per kWh to 62 cents [2]