1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current price of nickel and stainless steel is close to the support line, and the fundamentals remain under pressure. The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore still exists, but high - priced ore and weak demand are squeezing the profits of the intermediate links. The price of ferronickel is still on a downward trend, and there is no obvious production reduction trend for high - grade nickel matte. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, and the destocking is slow. The demand recovery of nickel salts in the new energy chain is slow, and the current situation is still based on sales - driven production. Attention should be paid to spot transaction volume and macro - news for future trends [1][3] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts, cost - side support from nickel ore prices, and the resumption of price limits by Tsingshan. Negative factors include slow destocking of stainless steel inventory and the entry of stainless steel into the traditional off - season [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Selling call options with a 50% hedging ratio is also an option. For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan. Other strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options [2] 2. Market Analysis of Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel Market**: The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore exists, but it is difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and the profitability of high - grade nickel matte is under pressure. The short - term contradiction remains due to weak upstream and downstream procurement [3] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, some traders are selling at discounted prices, and the destocking is slow. After Tsingshan's price limit regulation, the price has a stabilizing trend [3] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of Shanghai nickel continuous contracts 1 - 3 and LME nickel 3M all decreased, with a decline of about 1.48%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.34%. The basis of the main contract increased by 29.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,585 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless steel continuous contracts 1 - 3 decreased slightly. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.27%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 6.56% [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory decreased by 2,178 tons to 39,375 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons to 197,634 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 15.8 tons to 983.3 tons, and ferronickel inventory increased by 1,907.5 tons to 31,462 tons [7]