Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy showed a volatile and upward trend, reaching a high of 20,920 yuan/ton during the week. With the end - of - year sales push in the automotive industry, the seasonal performance in the fourth quarter may be stronger. Considering the cancellation of tax - refund policies and the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost increase will strongly support the price. It is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will be volatile and upward in the short term, and the long - term view is bullish, suggesting looking for buying opportunities on dips [7]. - As of October 31, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.38 tons to 13.22 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a possible inflection point in inventory. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the end - of - year sales push in the automotive industry, automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction End - Volume and Price - Relevant data on trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [10]. 2. Transaction End - Arbitrage 2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy was calculated. The fixed cost was 20.80 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 65.03 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 86 yuan/ton [13]. 2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of spot - futures arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy was calculated. The spot price was 20,800 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt was 21,016.9 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing [17]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. In September 2025, the import volume was 15.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [20]. 4. Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has been volatile. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [37][39]. - The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional proportion are presented [44][47][49]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently around the break - even point. The factory and social inventories of cast aluminum alloy have decreased, and the import window is temporarily closed [50][55][60]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods and their regional proportions are presented [63][64][66]. 5. Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel - powered vehicles have entered the end - of - year sales push phase, which will drive die - casting consumption [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weak demand and seasonal factors, despite tight supply of raw materials [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the main contract for aluminum alloy futures closed at 19,875 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.53% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 19,700 CNY/ton and 19,950 CNY/ton, indicating a stable yet cautious market environment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high production costs for aluminum alloy, which supports current price levels [2][3] - However, the automotive industry's "anti-involution" trend and the ongoing off-season have weakened demand, resulting in increased inventory levels for aluminum alloy [2][3] Institutional Insights - Guoxin Futures notes that while raw material prices remain high, the weak demand is expected to suppress aluminum alloy prices, making it challenging to maintain levels above 20,000 CNY/ton [3] - Donghai Futures highlights that the tight supply of scrap aluminum is causing production costs to rise, leading to losses for some recycling aluminum plants, which are now facing a loss of 41 CNY/ton [3] - The overall manufacturing sector is experiencing a lack of growth in orders, further contributing to the weak demand outlook for aluminum alloys [3]