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美团-W(3690.HK):竞争加剧 投入加码
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-28 18:34
Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved total revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.949 billion yuan, up 46.2%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan in Q1, growing 17.76% year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 39.10% [1] - Delivery service revenue was 25.7 billion yuan, a 22.11% increase year-on-year, while commission revenue was 24.1 billion yuan, up 20.05% [1] - Online marketing service revenue was 11.9 billion yuan, growing 15.09% year-on-year [1] Market Competition - Increased competition in the delivery market, particularly from JD.com, is expected to impact Meituan's profits starting in Q2, with revenue growth anticipated to slow [1] - The long-term view suggests that irrational competition in the industry may not be sustainable, with Meituan's delivery business having higher barriers compared to in-store travel and dining [1] New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment reported revenue of 22.2 billion yuan in Q1, a 19% year-on-year increase, but incurred an adjusted operating loss of 2.3 billion yuan, slightly widening due to increased investment in Keeta in the Middle East [2] - The long-term outlook for Keeta is positive, with potential for significant profit margins in overseas markets, particularly in Brazil [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Meituan's projected revenues for FY25 and FY26 are 388.997 billion yuan and 456.662 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.23% and 17.39% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP profits are expected to be 40.986 billion yuan and 52.824 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.37% and an increase of 28.88% [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 146.33 HKD, corresponding to a 20X PE for 2025 [2]
“双赛道龙头”吉宏股份(2603.HK)招股进行时,都有哪些投资亮点?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-21 01:29
Core Viewpoint - Jihong Co., Ltd. is set to launch its IPO, offering 67.91 million shares at a price range of HKD 7.48 to 10.68, with H-shares expected to be listed on May 27, 2023. The company is positioned as the first "AI-driven cross-border social e-commerce A+H stock" and is a leader in both the B2C export e-commerce and paper fast-moving consumer goods packaging industries, showcasing significant multi-dimensional value potential [1]. Industry Overview - Jihong Co., Ltd. operates in the B2C export social media e-commerce sector and the paper fast-moving consumer goods packaging industry, both characterized by large market space and high growth potential. The Chinese B2C export e-commerce market is projected to reach USD 927.6 billion by 2029, accounting for 11.4% of the global market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% from 2024 to 2029 [2]. - The Asian segment of the B2C export e-commerce market is expected to grow to USD 458.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 15.8%, outpacing the overall market growth. Social media is identified as the fastest-growing traffic source in this sector, with the Asian market projected to reach USD 69.5 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 19.0% [2]. Company Strategy and Performance - Jihong Co., Ltd. employs an AI-driven approach to enhance operational efficiency in cross-border e-commerce, effectively reshaping the competitive landscape and reducing costs. This strategy allows for improved product selection, marketing, and user experience, transitioning the competition from resource consumption to algorithm evolution [5]. - The company focuses on the Asian market, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, which provides stability against fluctuations in Western markets. Over 80% of its cross-border e-commerce revenue comes from Asia, with minimal exposure to the U.S. market [5]. - Jihong Co., Ltd. has a robust long-term strategy that includes AI-driven e-commerce, proprietary brand development, and international expansion of its packaging business. The company has developed the Giikin system to optimize its operations across the supply chain, achieving a low inventory turnover ratio and high return on investment (ROI) compared to industry averages [8][9]. - The company has established several proprietary brands and is leveraging its marketing data to enhance brand influence and sales efficiency. Its packaging business has also expanded into new markets, collaborating with local firms to strengthen its operational capabilities [9][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Jihong Co., Ltd. is projected to generate revenue of CNY 3.366 billion from cross-border social e-commerce, accounting for 60.9% of total revenue, while its paper packaging business is expected to contribute CNY 2.099 billion, or 38% [11]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a gross margin of 60.5% for its cross-border e-commerce segment, supporting an overall gross margin of 43.8%. In Q1 2025, Jihong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of CNY 1.477 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.55%, with net profit rising by 38.21% [11]. Conclusion - Jihong Co., Ltd.'s upcoming IPO is expected to enhance its market visibility and provide a platform for international expansion, potentially transforming it from a regional leader to a global player. The company's strategic focus on technology and market positioning is likely to drive its value and attract investor interest [12][13].