投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 房地产 房地产 2025 年 07 月 01 日 《新房成交面积环比增长，多地公积 金政策优化—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，西 安公积金直付新房首付款—行业周 报》-2025.6.22 《新房杭州环比领涨，二手房价同比 降幅缩小—行业点评报告》-2025.6.16 2025 年 1-6 月强销售金额点评：1-6 月百强销售同比 收缩，建发金茂单月销售表现靓眼 ——行业点评报告 克而瑞、亿翰智库等第三方机构发布 2025 年 6 月百强销售榜单。根据榜单测算， TOP100 房企 1-6 月全口径累计销售金额 17820.0 亿元，同比下降 11.4%，累计权 益销售金额 113013.6 万平方米，同比下降 11.5%。累计销售均价 20727.2 元/平方 米。从数据端来看，1-6 月整体销售规模同比有所降温，百强房企不同梯队间销 售情况分化程度低，6 月单月销售方面，建发房产、中国金 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In March 2025, new home sales prices in 70 cities showed a stable month-on-month decline, while year-on-year declines narrowed. First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase in new home prices, indicating a potential recovery trend in the market [8][29] - The report suggests that both new and second-hand home prices are expected to improve further, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which may accelerate urban renewal projects and improve the existing housing supply-demand relationship [8][29] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities changed month-on-month by +0.1%, 0.0%, and -0.2% respectively, with an overall month-on-month decline of -0.1% across 70 cities, remaining stable compared to February [5][15] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -2.8%, -4.4%, and -5.7% respectively, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities at -5.0%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from February [5][15] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in March showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase, while second and third-tier cities experienced smaller declines [6][22] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices across 70 cities decreased by -7.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -4.1%, -7.0%, and -7.8% respectively, also reflecting a narrowing of declines [6][22] Market Performance - In March 2025, Shanghai led the new home price increases with a month-on-month rise of +0.7% and a year-on-year increase of +5.7%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices [7][28] - The report highlights that the number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 24 in March, compared to 18 in February, indicating a positive shift in the market [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that can capture improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, as well as those in the second-hand housing market like Beike-W and I Love My Home [8][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, and significant adjustments in Shenzhen's provident fund policy are expected to support housing demand [3] - New housing prices have stabilized with a month-on-month decline remaining unchanged, while first-tier cities have seen a month-on-month increase [5][8] - The second-hand housing price decline has narrowed year-on-year, with the month-on-month decline remaining stable [6][18] Summary by Sections New Housing Price Trends - In February 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities changed by +0.1%, 0.0%, and -0.3% respectively, with an overall month-on-month decline of -0.1% across 70 cities [12] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -3.0%, -4.7%, and -5.9% respectively, with an overall decline of -5.2% across 70 cities [12][14] Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - In February 2025, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities saw a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities changing by -0.1%, -0.4%, and -0.4% respectively [6][20] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices decreased by -7.5% across 70 cities, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -4.9%, -7.4%, and -8.0% respectively [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong credit profiles that can capture improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as New City Holdings and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8] - The report highlights the growing potential of the real estate after-service market, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home being noted [8]