专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日在海南三亚举办。世界贸易组织原副总干事、 商务部原副部长易小准出席并演讲。 易小准指出，要意识到全球经济治理当前正处于天下大乱走向天下大治的最困难阶段。他提到，20多年 前在中国加入WTO的谈判时候，美欧这些发达国家不断的劝导我们，要减少贸易壁垒，降低关税，对 外开放市场，要欢迎外商投资，遵守多边贸易规则，要加入以规则为基础的多边贸易体制。中国接受了 这些理念，也因为自己的开放而变得更加强大，但是令人遗撼的是，当年的这些"老师"今天走到了全球 化的反面。 他认为，这是地缘政治和市场经济逻辑的一场长期博弈，短期内关税的冲击将会对中国出口增长造成显 著负面的影响。然而中长期来看，即使美国短期内可以依靠高关税限制中国产品对他们的竞争，比较依 靠高额补贴吸引产业回流，但仍然有三个问题无法解决：一是生产成本需要长期具有竞争；二是要有完 整和高效率的产业链；三是要有销售这些产品的大规模市场。 易小准强调，这三方面的优势恰恰都在中国，逐利是资本的天性，跨国公司在全球特别是中国布局产业 链，就是想要发挥不同国家的比较优势，通过专业分工降低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the domestic market and the need for operational optimization [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, down 22.52% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, down 69.32% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 445 million yuan, a decrease of 26.66%, with a net loss of 55 million yuan compared to a profit of 80 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. Industry Challenges - The domestic market is facing phase-specific pressures, including: 1. Centralized procurement affecting the pricing of certain medical products [2]. 2. Adjustments in terminal charging policies that may pose risks of price reductions for non-procurement projects [2]. 3. Changes in diagnostic-related groups (DRG) impacting overall testing volumes in hospitals [2]. Company Initiatives - In response to market pressures, the company is actively optimizing its operations by: 1. Strengthening cash flow management [2]. 2. Divesting from less profitable business segments [2]. 3. Implementing operational reforms to enhance efficiency and organizational vitality [2]. 4. Aligning its core product matrix and channel layout with policy directions to capitalize on market opportunities in grassroots testing capabilities [2]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is entering a phase of realization, with steady growth in Q3 2025, driven by: 1. The introduction of new technology platforms and instruments in key markets [3]. 2. Expansion into mid-tier markets through various new business lines [3]. 3. Localizing supply chains and operations, including the establishment of overseas subsidiaries and plans for forward warehouses [3]. - The U.S. subsidiary is focusing on integrating research, production, and sales in the North American toxicology market, with local production capabilities established [3]. Future Growth Prospects - The respiratory business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with long-term supply agreements signed with major U.S. clients [4]. - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 160 million, 330 million, and 400 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 60, 30, and 25 [4].

Core Insights - Apple has decided to adopt Intel's 18A (1.8nm) process technology for its next-generation low-end MacBook and other Mac devices, marking a strategic shift in its advanced manufacturing choices [1][2] - This decision indicates Apple's intention to avoid reliance on Samsung's foundry, which currently has 2nm production capabilities, due to concerns over supply chain security [2][3] Group 1 - Intel is expected to start delivering chips based on the 18A process to Apple by mid-2027, with these chips likely to be part of the M6 or M7 series [2][3] - The new chips will be used in future product lines including MacBook Air, iPad Air, and iPad Pro, contributing to Apple's localized supply chain strategy [2][3] Group 2 - Samsung's dual role as a competitor in key markets such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, smartwatches, and XR devices has led Apple to exercise caution in its supply chain decisions [3]

Core Insights - The Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act (IDAA) is set to be the most stringent market access policy in recent years, causing significant market reactions, particularly in the renewable energy sector [2][3] - The IDAA reflects a shift in global resource competition from "market for technology" to "rules for technology," emphasizing the need for companies to enhance core technology independence and supply chain resilience [2][12] Summary by Sections IDAA Overview - The IDAA is not the first EU policy targeting Chinese renewable manufacturers, following previous regulations like the New Battery Regulation and the Critical Materials Act, aimed at establishing a European self-sufficient standard system [3][4] - The IDAA introduces unprecedented requirements, including mandatory technology sharing, local content thresholds, and control over corporate governance, marking a significant escalation in market access barriers [5][6] Impact on Chinese Manufacturers - European markets have become a profit center for Chinese energy storage companies, with overseas orders reaching 214.7 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 130% [6] - Companies like Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. have seen substantial overseas revenue, with a gross margin of 40% in Europe, significantly higher than domestic margins [6][7] Strategic Responses - The IDAA's requirements necessitate a shift in business models for companies like Sungrow, which may face increased costs and compliance pressures due to local sourcing mandates [7][9] - Companies are encouraged to localize production in Europe to meet the IDAA's requirements, with the EU aiming for 10% of strategic materials to be mined and 40% processed locally by 2030 [9][10] Long-term Strategies - The IDAA poses a core threat of technology transfer, compelling companies to choose between technology and market access, leading to strategies such as substituting non-core technologies to comply with regulations [10][11] - Companies are exploring new markets in the Middle East and Latin America to mitigate risks associated with European policy changes, while also leveraging their manufacturing and system integration strengths [10][12] Conclusion - The IDAA signifies a profound change in the competitive landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Chinese energy storage firms to enhance their competitiveness and adapt to evolving market conditions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector's attempts to return to domestic production have not yielded significant improvements, with the manufacturing GDP share declining from 12% in 2009 to 10.3% in 2022, and projected to remain around 10% by 2025 [2][4][21] Group 1: U.S. Manufacturing Policies - The U.S. government has invested heavily in manufacturing revival, with initiatives like the $23 billion infrastructure investment and $390 billion for chips during the Obama administration, followed by tax cuts and tariffs under Trump, and further subsidies under Biden [2][4] - Despite these efforts, the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has not significantly improved, indicating a slow recovery [2][12] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment in manufacturing has dropped from 24.5% in 1970 to 8.5% currently, with new job creation primarily in the service sector [4][12] - Reports indicate that while over $3 trillion in investment has been announced, job creation has been modest, with Boeing facing significant operational challenges [4][12] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Impact - The U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on overseas manufacturing, particularly from China, has disrupted global supply chains, leading countries like Japan and South Korea to attempt similar moves, which resulted in increased costs and delays [6][10] - Japan's manufacturing costs rose by 30% due to supply chain disruptions, while South Korea's profits fell by 15% as they struggled with a lack of skilled labor and components from China [6][10] Group 4: Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Japan and South Korea's experiences highlight the challenges of relocating manufacturing back home, including rising costs and labor shortages, leading some companies to reconsider their decisions and move production back to China [8][10] - The aging workforce and low birth rates in these countries exacerbate the labor shortage, impacting their manufacturing capabilities [8][10] Group 5: China's Response - In response to U.S. tariffs and the manufacturing shift, China is focusing on high-tech industries, with projections indicating that by 2025, it will produce 60% of the world's electric vehicle batteries and increase its self-sufficiency in chips [10][12][17] - China's strategy includes investing in high-tech sectors and enhancing its workforce's skills to remain competitive globally [12][17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. manufacturing revival is slow, with significant challenges remaining, while China is leveraging the situation to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities [21] - The global manufacturing landscape is shifting, with Southeast Asia gaining an advantage as companies reassess their supply chains in light of U.S. policies [21]

Group 1 - The founder and chairman of CATL, Zeng Yuqun, is expected to visit South Korea later this month to discuss cooperation with Hyundai Motor Group and other local battery manufacturers, as well as suppliers of battery materials and equipment [1][3] - This visit marks Zeng's first official trip to a neighboring country in nearly three years, during which he will meet with Hyundai's chairman, Chung Eui-sun, to deepen their cooperative relationship amid high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [3] - CATL is actively expanding its supply chain for battery materials in South Korea, planning to meet with executives from leading local companies such as EcoPro and L&F, which are crucial players in the global NCM battery supply chain [3][4] Group 2 - In the first quarter of this year, CATL established a subsidiary in South Korea to accelerate its market expansion and localization of the supply chain [4] - Zeng Yuqun plans to hold closed-door meetings with the chairmen of SK Group, LG Group, and Hanwha Group to explore potential synergies in raw material procurement, equipment standardization, and overseas joint ventures [4] - Beyond the power battery sector, CATL views the South Korean energy storage system (ESS) market as a new growth opportunity, with plans to collaborate with local material and equipment companies to develop or sell ESS products [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the entry of restaurant companies into overseas markets is primarily through three mainstream models: direct chain franchising, regional chain franchising, and joint ventures, which directly influence how the supply chain is localized or internationalized [1] - The understanding of the supply chain has evolved beyond just ingredients and sauces; it now encompasses international procurement planning, logistics, distribution, warehousing, and the entire process at the store level, indicating a more complex international supply chain than previously thought [3] - The traditional method of Chinese restaurant brands finding local partners through exhibitions is becoming less viable, and by 2025, relying solely on short-term exhibitions to solve sales issues and find local partners may prove very challenging [3] Group 2 - The importance of local supply chains is increasing, and the ability to find local partners for production, processing, cooperation, and agency services is becoming essential for restaurant companies expanding overseas [3] - Restaurant companies are advised to have their supply chain and R&D departments spend more time in local markets to establish long-term cooperative relationships with various local supply chain partners, rather than focusing solely on headquarters [3] - A higher-level perspective is necessary for viewing the overseas supply chain, emphasizing the need for a long-term development approach rather than relying on past logic to address today's global market challenges [3]

Group 1 - Foreign investors targeting China in 2025 must navigate both the significant increase in US-China tariffs and the concurrent rise in incentives for foreign capital from Beijing [1][9] - Tariffs are identified as the fastest rising cost factor and the strongest incentive for companies to localize operations [1][15] - The US has implemented a 10% uniform tariff on all imports and punitive tariffs up to 145% on targeted Chinese goods, raising the average effective tariff to approximately 22%, the highest level since 1909 [6][15] Group 2 - The EU has raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 45.3% and initiated negotiations to convert tariffs into minimum price commitments, highlighting the rapid changes in tariff barriers [3] - Toyota's investment of 146 billion yen (approximately 20 billion USD) in a wholly-owned Lexus electric vehicle factory near Shanghai exemplifies a "produce locally, sell locally" strategy to mitigate US and EU tariffs [5] - The Chinese government has introduced measures such as the "Stabilizing Foreign Investment Action Plan" to ease market access and accelerate license approvals, along with tax incentives for reinvested profits [9][15] Group 3 - The establishment of 22 free trade zones with a "one chapter, one license" registration system and negative list industry access aims to reduce customs clearance delays and associated tariff financing costs [10] - Local subsidies, such as Guangzhou's reimbursement of up to 20,000 RMB (approximately 2,800 USD) for clean technology imports, are part of a broader competition to lower overall tariff rates [11] - Products manufactured in China that comply with EU origin rules can enjoy zero or low tariffs when entering 14 partner economies under RCEP, providing a buffer against US/EU profit losses [12] Group 4 - Despite a decline in the value of foreign direct investment in Q1 2025, the number of newly registered foreign-invested enterprises increased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating continued attractiveness for technology-focused investors [15] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a dual-market manufacturing approach, designing high-value products in China while arranging final assembly through ASEAN RCEP hubs to maintain origin flexibility [16] - The need for companies to prepare for varying tariff scenarios (0%, 45%, and 145%) in investment return predictions is emphasized, with internal rate of return fluctuations projected between 11-18 percentage points [16]

Core Viewpoint - Foxconn's recall of 300 Chinese engineers from India poses challenges to Apple's manufacturing expansion plans in the country, potentially impacting the production efficiency of iPhone models, particularly the upcoming iPhone 17 series [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Production - The recall of engineers is the second instance in recent months, raising concerns about the production capabilities of Foxconn's facility in Tamil Nadu, which has just begun operations [1][2] - The factory currently relies heavily on imported components for assembling iPhone screens, indicating a lack of local supply chain maturity [1][2] - The withdrawal of experienced engineers may hinder the training of local workers and the integration of new manufacturing processes, leading to production bottlenecks [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Diversification Challenges - Apple's efforts to localize its supply chain in India are complicated by the loss of skilled Chinese engineers, which could delay the company's ability to establish a robust manufacturing ecosystem [2][3] - The transition of production from China to India involves not only relocating existing capacity but also building new infrastructure and training local labor, which is a time-consuming process [2][3] Group 3: Broader Industry Context - Despite India's advancements in infrastructure and manufacturing incentives, the country still lacks a mature industrial cluster comparable to China's, with only 14 out of 187 top Apple suppliers having factories in India [4][5] - Geopolitical factors and labor issues, such as worker skill levels and rights, pose additional challenges for the expansion of Apple's supply chain in India [5]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's expansion plans in India face significant challenges as Foxconn recalls approximately 300 engineers from its Indian factory, potentially impacting the production capabilities for the upcoming iPhone 17 [2][3] Group 1: Production Challenges - Foxconn's recall of engineers marks the second such incident in recent months, raising concerns about the efficiency of the Indian manufacturing process [3] - The factory in Tamil Nadu, which produces metal casings and display modules for older iPhone models, has not yet started production for the iPhone 17 series [3] - The withdrawal of experienced engineers from China may hinder Apple's efforts to localize its supply chain in India, as replacing their expertise will require significant time and resources [3][5] Group 2: Supply Chain Diversification - Apple's strategy to diversify its supply chain involves not only relocating existing production but also building a new manufacturing ecosystem in India, which includes infrastructure and workforce training [5] - The recent events highlight the vulnerabilities in Apple's supply chain in India, with delays in training local engineers and integrating new manufacturing processes potentially leading to production bottlenecks [5][6] Group 3: Labor and Infrastructure Issues - Concerns persist regarding labor quality and the reliance on foreign workers, as the Indian manufacturing sector has been criticized for its dependence on imported labor from countries like Vietnam [6] - Despite improvements in infrastructure and incentives for manufacturers, India still faces challenges in creating a mature industrial cluster comparable to that in China [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape poses additional challenges for Apple's supply chain in India, with ongoing structural tensions between India and China affecting operational stability [8] - The "Made in America" initiative, advocated by former President Trump, adds another layer of complexity to Apple's production strategy in India, as it aims to balance local production with geopolitical pressures [8]