珍酒李渡(06979)：公司实控人吴向东（持股比例66.7%）自2003年起先后收购湘窖、开口笑、江西李渡 和贵州珍酒，打造以三大企业、四大品牌、多种香型为核心的国内领先民营白酒企业，上市主体珍酒李 渡以"旗舰珍酒、国宝李渡、地区领先湘窖及开口笑"为三级增长引擎，2023年三者收入贡献占比分别为 65.2%、15.8%、17.4%。 25Q1春节旺季催化下，行业整体营收小幅增长，但增速较2024年下滑，行业仍处调整期。 分价格带来看，高端白酒整体稳中有增，次高端酒营收增速接近零值区间，地产酒及其他白酒分化加 剧。当前进入5月，白酒行业由传统淡季转向五一、端午小旺季，在需求回暖的情况下主流产品价盘有 望企稳。 东吴证券发布研报称，白酒维持中期看好观点，位置比节奏重要。周期底部关注边际企稳信号，行业中 观参考指标包括茅台批价稳定性、旺季动销验证以及渠道库存变化。面对需求复苏曲折的不利环境，龙 头酒企渠道调控及供需匹配能力持续进化，通过数字化跟踪、加强直营等手段，对不同区域、不同价位 的产品投放管理更趋精细，期待营销变革展现豹变效果。该行认为，在宏观平稳背景下，龙头酒企韧性 增长仍具一定保障，经过春节动销检验，全年 ...

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].