Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue, with total revenue at 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is facing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decrease in milk prices. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin, which was 14.63% in Q1, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotional activities [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to increase its dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year, reaching 74,500 tons [4]. - The report forecasts that the company's earnings are expected to recover after an initial decline, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.24, 0.53, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company is projected to have total revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 3.3%, 4.9%, 8.6%, and 8.9%, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline significantly in 2024, with a forecast of 44 million yuan, before recovering to 78 million yuan in 2025 and reaching 246 million yuan by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.1%, 16.8%, 17.1%, 18.2%, and 19.2% from 2023 to 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue due to weak demand in the dairy industry, with a revenue of 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company faced a net loss of 73.3 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the culling of cows impacting profitability [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the report suggests that the company's operational resilience remains strong, and it anticipates a recovery in performance after an initial decline [4]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 2,714 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 12.6% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% [5]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 19.1%, with a forecasted increase to 19.2% by 2027 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.66 [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The dairy industry is experiencing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decline in milk prices and a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in the national cow inventory [4]. - The company has been exploring new sales channels and optimizing its cattle structure to improve production efficiency, with a reported increase in dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights that the company is actively addressing the challenges posed by increased market competition and supply-demand imbalances [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].