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天润乳业(600419):动销承压 渠道破局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 00:25
25Q2 业绩符合预期。公司25H1 营收13.95 亿元、同比-3.30%,归母净利-0.22 亿元、同比减亏,扣非净 利0.58 亿元、同比+141.32%,业绩符合此前预告。单25Q2 营收同比-3.94%、归母净利同比扭亏、扣非 净利同比显著提升至0.59 亿元,毛利率18.68%、同比+0.70pct,净利率6.28%大幅改善,主因淘汰牛等 非经常损失降低。 以价换量,渠道破局。拆分来看:1)产品层面,Q2 常温、低温乳制品收入同比分别-6.1%、-6.2%,均 环比降速,乳业消费趋势未有明显好转。2)市场层面,Q2 疆内、疆外收入同比分别 +10.6%、-17.2%,疆内增速环比Q1 显著改善,主因基数较低(24Q2 疆内收入同比-10.1%)且公司积极 开辟疆内各类新渠道出局成效,疆外增速环比进一步回落,竞争挤压依然明显。2025 年公司计划实现 乳制品销量31万吨,25H1 已完成16.23 万吨,有望完成全年目标。当前竞争较为激烈,公司以价换量特 征较为明显,Q1 乳制品销量同比+12.4%、吨均收入同比-13.6%,Q2 销量同比6.2%、吨均收入同 比-11.6%,价格和产品结构的拖累预 ...
天润乳业(600419):Q2净利润扭亏为盈,不强赎转债增强信心
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-22 09:35
上次评级 买入 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号:S1500524100003 邮 箱:zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编:100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] Q2 净利润扭亏为盈,不强赎转债增强信心 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] 实现较大增幅。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 0.22/0.56/0.73 元, 分别对应 2025-2027 年 52X/21X/16X PE,维持对公司的"买入"评 级。 风险因素:食品安全问题,行业竞争加剧,扩产不及预期 | [T重a要bl财e务_P指r标ofit] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,714 | 2,804 | 2,825 | ...
天润乳业(600419):减值如期收敛,带动盈利改善
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-22 05:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419), indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [8][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.395 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders improved to -22 million yuan from -28 million yuan in the same period last year. The non-recurring net profit reached 58 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 141.32% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 771 million yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, compared to -32 million yuan in the same quarter last year. The non-recurring net profit also improved to 59 million yuan from 1 million yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.791 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.5% compared to 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 630 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.5% year-on-year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.20 yuan, with subsequent years showing an increase to 0.49 yuan in 2026 and 0.58 yuan in 2027 [4][14]. - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 18.68%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost management and government subsidies [8][9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that despite external consumption pressures, the company has actively worked on sales strategies, leading to a notable revenue increase in domestic markets. The revenue from Xinjiang increased by 10.65% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Xinjiang decreased by 17.21% [8][9]. - The company is focusing on channel expansion and product innovation to counteract the competitive pressures and weak demand in the market [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for profit recovery in the short term, driven by reduced impairment losses and improved operational efficiency. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and expansion into new markets in the medium to long term [8][9].
天润乳业(600419) - 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司关于2025年半年度主要经营数据的公告
2025-08-21 11:01
新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码:600419 | 证券简称:天润乳业 | 公告编号:2025-045 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:110097 | 债券简称:天润转债 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于 2025 年半年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十四号——食品制造》的相关规定,现将新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据(未经审计)公告如下: 一、2025 年半年度主要经营数据情况 1、主营业务按照产品类别分类情况 2、主营业务按照销售渠道分类情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | 销售渠道 | 年 月 2025 1-6 | | --- | --- | | 经销 | 1,215,298,102.93 | | 直销 | 139,304,199.76 | | 合计 | 1,354,602,302.69 | 3、主营业务按照地区分类情况 1 单位:元 ...
阳光乳业上半年增利不增收,低温乳制品营收下滑
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-20 08:06
Core Insights - Sunshine Dairy's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 237 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.03%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was about 59.82 million yuan, an increase of 8.27% [2] - Low-temperature dairy products remain the main revenue contributor, generating approximately 185 million yuan, accounting for 78.37% of total revenue [2] - The company is facing challenges with milk supply and price fluctuations, but has established stable partnerships with large-scale farms to mitigate risks [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Low-temperature dairy products: Revenue of approximately 185 million yuan, down from previous year [2] - Ambient dairy products: Revenue of approximately 30.16 million yuan, up 8.56% year-on-year [2] - Milk powder: Revenue increased by 1189.94% year-on-year, but only amounted to 1.11 million yuan, contributing minimally to overall revenue [2] Supply Chain Strategy - The company is increasing its own farm construction to enhance self-supply of milk [3] - Sunshine Dairy is forming strong partnerships with large national farms to secure stable milk supply [3] - Long-term supply contracts are being signed to lock in prices and quantities, reducing risks associated with milk supply shortages and price volatility [3]
一季度日均处置94头牛,天润乳业上半年最高预亏2600万元,全年30亿目标如何逆势实现
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-17 02:13
Core Viewpoint - Despite facing challenges such as declining raw milk prices, oversupply of milk sources, and intensified market competition, Tianrun Dairy's performance remains under pressure, with a projected net loss for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Tianrun Dairy expects a net loss of between 26 million to 18 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased disposal of low-yield dairy cows, losses from bulk milk powder sales, and impairment provisions for biological assets [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 625 million yuan, with a net profit turning into a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a decline of 1713.36% [2] - The company reported a non-recurring net profit of between 46 million to 67 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating potential recovery in profitability starting from the second quarter [1] Inventory and Impairment - Tianrun Dairy has faced significant inventory impairment pressures, particularly related to milk powder, leading to multiple impairment provisions totaling approximately 10.7 million yuan over various periods [3][4] - The company has been actively reducing its dairy cow population, with the number of cows culled in the first quarter of 2025 reaching 8,500, averaging about 94.4 cows disposed of daily [5] Market Strategy and Sales - Despite a decline in revenue from main products, overall sales volume increased by 12.37% year-on-year to 74,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to increased marketing expenditures [6] - Tianrun Dairy aims to achieve a sales target of 310,000 tons of dairy products and set a revenue goal of 3 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing industry challenges [7] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Xin Nong Dairy for 326 million yuan has not yielded the expected benefits, with the subsidiary contributing a loss of 95.35 million yuan to Tianrun Dairy's profits in 2023 [8] - Xin Nong Dairy's performance has been disappointing, with a net loss of 81.36 million yuan in 2024, attributed to inventory impairments and cow disposal issues [8] Future Outlook - The company faces significant uncertainty regarding its ongoing projects, including the expansion of dairy farms, which have been delayed, leading to an impairment provision of approximately 1.03 million yuan [10]
北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十一期(20250706):生育政策密集出台或将刺激行业发展,关注北交所母婴行业相关标的
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-07 09:17
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, driven by government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth and stimulating market growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The implementation of various supportive policies by the government is expected to boost the maternal and infant industry, with a projected increase in birth rates and consumer spending in this sector [6][9]. - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching approximately 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, with a potential increase to 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [9][11]. - The report highlights the rapid development of the infant food market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a market size of about 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29]. - The maternal and infant retail chain market is also expanding, with a projected growth from 587.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 906.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [32][34]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The Chinese government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth, including subsidies and tax reductions, which are expected to stabilize and potentially increase the birth rate [6][7]. - The focus on modern parenting and quality of life among younger parents is driving demand for diverse maternal and infant products [6][9]. Market Growth - The maternal and infant consumption market is projected to grow to 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery in birth rates with 9.54 million births expected [9][11]. - The infant food market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 and a CAGR of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024 [25][29]. Industry Segmentation - The report outlines the structure of the maternal and infant industry, which includes upstream food production, midstream manufacturing of products, and downstream retail channels [13][14]. - The dairy industry is also highlighted, with a projected market size of 5,216.70 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in milk production due to market imbalances [16][20]. Company Analysis - The report identifies key companies in the maternal and infant sector listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Knight Dairy and Wuxi Jinghai, along with potential listings such as Southern Dairy and Ying's Holdings [44][45]. - The overall market capitalization of the consumer service sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange has increased, with a median market cap of 123.92 billion yuan [52][54].
南方乳业完成北交所上市辅导,直面上市政策收紧
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 09:01
Core Viewpoint - Nanfang Dairy has completed its listing guidance for the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) but faces challenges due to tightening listing policies and sluggish performance growth, raising uncertainties about its ability to successfully list [1][5]. Group 1: Company Background and Listing Progress - Nanfang Dairy is a subsidiary of Guiyang Agricultural Investment Development Group, established in 2017, and has undergone significant restructuring to enhance its market position [2]. - The company initially aimed for an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange but shifted its focus to the BSE due to regulatory changes and completed its listing guidance with CITIC Securities [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nanfang Dairy's revenue and net profit growth have slowed, with projected revenues of 1.817 billion in 2024, a mere 0.65% increase from the previous year, and net profit growth of 4.36% [5]. - The company ranks 20th among 36 listed dairy companies in terms of revenue, indicating a competitive but challenging market position [5]. Group 3: Market Presence and Expansion Efforts - Approximately 92% of Nanfang Dairy's revenue comes from the Guizhou province, with only about 4.63% from outside the province, highlighting a significant regional concentration risk [6][7]. - The company has implemented a "going out" strategy to expand its market presence beyond Guizhou, including community group purchases and e-commerce initiatives, but has seen limited success in increasing its provincial revenue share [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Industry Trends - The tightening of IPO regulations, particularly the implementation of a comprehensive registration system and the "827" policy, has led many companies, including Nanfang Dairy, to seek listings on the BSE as an alternative [8][9]. - The BSE has raised its listing requirements, focusing on innovation and specific financial metrics, which may pose additional challenges for traditional dairy companies like Nanfang Dairy [9].
天润乳业净利润陷历史新低,收购资产时机不佳
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-05-09 15:39
Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Industry Co., Ltd. has reported significant declines in net profit, with a 69.24% drop in 2024 and a loss of 73.30 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking the lowest performance in nearly a decade [1][3][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tianrun Dairy's revenue was 625 million yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 73.30 million yuan, a staggering decline of 1713.36% [2] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.804 billion yuan, a 3.33% increase, but net profit fell to 43.66 million yuan, a 69.26% decrease [3] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased culling of low-yield cows and inventory impairment provisions for milk powder [2][3] Market Conditions - The dairy and cattle farming industries are facing challenges, with a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in national cattle inventory and a 12.3% drop in fresh milk prices in major producing provinces [2] - The company is experiencing a phase of oversupply in milk sources and intensified market competition, prompting it to optimize its core herd and explore new sales channels [2][3] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Xinjiang New Agricultural Dairy Co., Ltd. has significantly impacted Tianrun Dairy's profits, with a reported loss of 95.35 million yuan attributed to this acquisition in 2023 [4][5] - New Agricultural Dairy's performance has been poor post-acquisition, with losses continuing into 2024, further straining Tianrun Dairy's financials [5][6] Strategic Focus - Despite challenges, Tianrun Dairy's revenue from markets outside Xinjiang has shown growth, with 2024 figures indicating a 9.25% increase in revenue from these markets [7][8] - The company aims to leverage its advantages in Xinjiang's milk sources to build a robust product matrix and industry system [10]
天润乳业(600419):淘汰牛只扰动利润,业绩有望先抑后扬
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-04 12:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue, with total revenue at 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is facing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decrease in milk prices. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin, which was 14.63% in Q1, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotional activities [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to increase its dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year, reaching 74,500 tons [4]. - The report forecasts that the company's earnings are expected to recover after an initial decline, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.24, 0.53, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company is projected to have total revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 3.3%, 4.9%, 8.6%, and 8.9%, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline significantly in 2024, with a forecast of 44 million yuan, before recovering to 78 million yuan in 2025 and reaching 246 million yuan by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.1%, 16.8%, 17.1%, 18.2%, and 19.2% from 2023 to 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2027 [5].