证券研究报告 生育政策密集出台或将刺激行业发展，关注北交所母婴行业相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十一期（20250706） 投资要点： | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 政策出台有望鼓励生育，或将刺激母婴行业发展。国务院、各地政府出台育儿补贴、购房优 惠等政策，有望刺激母婴行业的发展。根据国家统计局，2024 年中国出生人口 954 万，为 2017 年以来首次回升，而根据艾媒咨询数据，2018-2024 年中国母婴消费市场规模稳步上升， 2024 年达 76299 亿元。中国乳制品行业规模不断扩大，但奶类产量 2024 年有所下降，根据 南方乳业招股书、灼识咨询数据，2024 年中国乳制品规模约 5216.70 亿元，预计 2026 年达 5966.60 亿元。中国婴幼儿辅食市 ...

近日，中信证券股份有限公司公布贵州南方乳业股份有限公司（简称"南方乳业"）完成北交所上市辅 导，南方乳业也于近期密集发布适用于北交所上市后的一系列公司管理制度。 从冲刺上交所到谋求北交所上市，南方乳业与一众新三板挂牌乳企一样，接连遭遇上市政策收紧。从业 绩表现来看，南方乳业2024年营收、净利润增长乏力，贵州省外市场营收占比依旧不足5%，能否如愿 上市存未知数。 完成北交所上市辅导 公开资料显示，南方乳业为贵阳市农业农垦投资发展集团有限公司（简称"贵阳农投"）控股子公司，前 身是1953年成立的"花溪奶牛场"。2017年11月，贵阳农投批准贵阳三联乳业有限公司（简称"三联乳 业"）设立南方乳业。为更好地推进贵阳农投集团乳业板块发展和上市，解决同业竞争问题，2019年12 月，三联乳业将南方乳业100%股权转让给贵阳农投，并在次年将乳业核心资产无偿划转给南方乳业。 早在2020年，南方乳业曾就IPO券商服务项目进行公开招标。中信证券2023年1月发布的上市辅导备案 报告中，南方乳业赫然在列，彼时其拟申报的上市板块为上交所主板。2023年6月，贵州证监局完成对 南方乳业的上市辅导工作验收。 然而自2023年12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Southern Dairy Co., Ltd. has completed its listing guidance work and plans to IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the guiding institution [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Southern Dairy reported operating revenue of 1.817 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.65% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 209 million, reflecting a growth of 4.36% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 28.15%, up from 24.44% in the previous year [2][3]. Shareholding Structure - As of December 31, 2024, the controlling shareholder of Southern Dairy is Guiyang Agricultural Investment Group, which holds 88.21% of the company's shares [3]. Management Changes - Southern Dairy has experienced three changes in chairmanship within a year, with Wang Qiansheng retiring in May 2024, followed by Huang Dezhe and then Geng Kun taking over in June 2025 [4]. Leadership Profile - Geng Kun, the current chairman, has a background in agricultural technology and has held various positions in agricultural institutions prior to his appointment [5].

江西阳光乳业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 证券代码：001318 证券简称：阳光乳业编号：2025-002 | 投资者关系活动类别 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议□媒体采访√业绩说明会□新闻发布会□路 | | --- | --- | | | 演活动□现场参观 □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 投资者网上提问 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 21 日 (周三) 下午 14:30~17:00 | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net）采用 | | | 网络远程的方式召开业绩说明会 | | 上市公司接待人员 | 1、董秘杨发兴 | | 姓名 | 2、财务负责人艾剑波 | | | 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况 | | | 公司就投资者在本次说明会中提出的问题进行了回复： | | | 1、公司 2025 年 5 月 20 日预计解禁约 20 万股，市值约 26.6 亿， | | | 属于首发原始股。请问董秘，控股股东在解禁后有没有减持计划？如 | | | 没有，为打消股东们的顾虑，是否让大股东表个态？ | ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Industry Co., Ltd. has reported significant declines in net profit, with a 69.24% drop in 2024 and a loss of 73.30 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking the lowest performance in nearly a decade [1][3][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tianrun Dairy's revenue was 625 million yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 73.30 million yuan, a staggering decline of 1713.36% [2] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.804 billion yuan, a 3.33% increase, but net profit fell to 43.66 million yuan, a 69.26% decrease [3] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased culling of low-yield cows and inventory impairment provisions for milk powder [2][3] Market Conditions - The dairy and cattle farming industries are facing challenges, with a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in national cattle inventory and a 12.3% drop in fresh milk prices in major producing provinces [2] - The company is experiencing a phase of oversupply in milk sources and intensified market competition, prompting it to optimize its core herd and explore new sales channels [2][3] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Xinjiang New Agricultural Dairy Co., Ltd. has significantly impacted Tianrun Dairy's profits, with a reported loss of 95.35 million yuan attributed to this acquisition in 2023 [4][5] - New Agricultural Dairy's performance has been poor post-acquisition, with losses continuing into 2024, further straining Tianrun Dairy's financials [5][6] Strategic Focus - Despite challenges, Tianrun Dairy's revenue from markets outside Xinjiang has shown growth, with 2024 figures indicating a 9.25% increase in revenue from these markets [7][8] - The company aims to leverage its advantages in Xinjiang's milk sources to build a robust product matrix and industry system [10]

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：临 | 2025-016 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十四号——食品制造》的相关规定，现将新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、2025 年第一季度主要经营数据 1、主营业务按照产品类别分类情况 二、2025 年第一季度经销商变动情况 2、主营业务按照销售渠道分类情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 销售渠道 | 2025 年 1-3 月 | | --- | --- | | 经销 | 545,486,834.99 | | 直销 | 60,277,680.86 | | 合计 | 605,764,515 ...