Core Viewpoint - Southern Dairy has announced the resumption of its listing review on the Beijing Stock Exchange after a temporary suspension due to expired financial reports. The company faces scrutiny regarding its market position and R&D expenses, with analysts highlighting the importance of sustained profitability amid declining milk prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Position - Southern Dairy is a subsidiary of the Guizhou Agricultural Investment Development Group, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of dairy products, primarily low-temperature and room-temperature dairy products. The company claims a market share of approximately 67.84% in Guizhou and 1.03% nationally [2]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange has raised concerns about the accuracy of Southern Dairy's market position disclosures and the reliability of the data sources used to calculate market size and share [2][5]. - Southern Dairy is recognized as one of the top 20 dairy enterprises in China for 2024, indicating a leading position among local dairy companies [2]. Group 2: R&D Expenses - The company reported R&D expenses of 9 million CNY, 11.67 million CNY, 12.17 million CNY, and 5.76 million CNY over the past four years, with an average of 10.94 million CNY in the last three years. The majority of R&D costs are attributed to employee salaries and materials [3]. - The inquiry from the Beijing Stock Exchange questions the rationale behind the full inclusion of the chief engineer's salary in R&D expenses and the distribution of salaries among part-time R&D personnel [3]. Group 3: Profitability Concerns - In the first half of this year, Southern Dairy reported revenues of 850 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of 120 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth of 78.2% [4]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to a rise in gross margin and a reduction in asset disposal losses. The gross margin for low-temperature dairy products increased by 3.88% compared to the previous year [4]. - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of profitability, particularly with anticipated increases in milk prices, which could raise costs and challenge the company's ability to maintain stable product pricing [4][6]. Group 4: Market Expansion Strategy - Southern Dairy has been actively expanding its market presence outside Guizhou, with some growth in revenue from e-commerce channels. However, the company faces challenges in penetrating markets beyond its home province [5][6]. - The company is advised to focus on deepening its market presence within Guizhou rather than aggressively pursuing external markets, suggesting a strategy of leveraging new retail models to enhance profitability [6].

在北交所的第二轮问询函中，南方乳业的"市场地位披露准确性及经营风险揭示充分性"被重点关注。根据招股说明书，南方乳业目前的定位为地方型乳企， 产品销售主要集中在贵州及周边市场。该公司披露的数据显示，2023年，其在贵州省的市场占有率约为67.84%，全国市场占比为1.03%；同时，公司 是"2024年中国农业企业奶业20强"企业，业务规模在地方型乳企中位于前列。 近日，南方乳业宣布恢复北交所上市审核。今年9月下旬，因上市申请文件中的财务报告已到期需补充审计事项，南方乳业被北交所中止审核。11月14日， 南方乳业收到了北交所的第二轮问询函，涉及市场地位披露的准确性、研发费用的真实准确性等。业内分析人士指出，受奶价下行影响，南方乳业冲击北交 所，能否持续盈利是关键。 市场地位难匹配 官网显示，南方乳业属贵阳市农业农垦投资发展集团有限公司控股子公司，集乳制品、乳饮料的研发、生产、销售以及奶畜养殖于一体，产品主要以低温乳 制品和常温乳制品为主。旗下拥有"山花""花都牧场""贵草"等品牌，曾获中国奶业优秀乳品加工企业"最具影响力品牌企业"。 事实上，对于南方乳业在省外市场的拓展能力和成效，北交所在此次问询中也提出质疑。北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights that New Dairy Industry is poised for significant growth after a period of accumulation, with a clear mid-to-long-term development strategy aimed at achieving double-digit compound annual growth and doubling net profit margins over the next five years [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - From 2001 to 2021, the company completed three rounds of mergers and acquisitions to achieve national coverage and a full industry chain layout [1] - In 2023, the company announced a five-year strategic plan focusing on organic growth as the primary driver, supplemented by investments and acquisitions [1] - The company aims for a clear strategic goal of doubling net profit margins in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Market Development - The company has been intensifying efforts in the low-temperature sector and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel development [1] - Expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 11.15 billion, 11.81 billion, and 12.63 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 5.9%, and 7.0% [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 720 million, 860 million, and 950 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 19%, and 11% [1] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 18x, and 16x, respectively, which are below the average of comparable companies while showing strong growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to market benchmarks [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer spending recovery and highlights various sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, food and beverage, textiles, home appliances, retail, pharmaceuticals, and social services [1][6][20][22][25]. - Key recommendations include focusing on high-quality breeding stocks in agriculture, structural growth opportunities in consumer goods, and the potential for recovery in textile manufacturing orders due to stable overseas demand [6][9][20][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections Agriculture - The report suggests a continued recommendation for high-quality breeding stocks, emphasizing food security and the ongoing reduction in pig breeding capacity, which is expected to elevate future pork prices [25][26]. Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its structural growth, particularly in the liquor market, where demand is expected to stabilize. Companies like Ximai Foods are noted for their strong revenue growth and innovative product launches [7][8]. Textiles - The textile sector is recommended for its recovery potential, with a focus on leading manufacturers benefiting from improved order conditions as global demand stabilizes [9][10]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector shows signs of recovery, with companies like Huabao New Energy and XGIMI Technology expected to experience significant growth due to expanding market demands and improved operational efficiencies [14][15]. Retail - The retail sector is experiencing a boost in store openings and same-store sales improvements, particularly in the snack food segment, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [18][19]. Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical industry is recommended for its innovative upstream and CXO chains, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical showing strong performance and growth potential [20][21]. Social Services - The report identifies investment opportunities in the restaurant and OTA sectors, particularly in brands that are expected to benefit from ongoing consumer trends and government support for consumption [22][23].

Core Insights - Tianrun Dairy reported a significant decline in performance for the first three quarters of the year, with revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81%, and a shift from a profit of 22.27 million yuan to a loss of 10.61 million yuan, marking the first loss in the same period in nearly a decade [2][5] Industry Overview - The dairy industry is currently in an adjustment phase, characterized by a cyclical oversupply of raw milk, leading to frequent discounts on yogurt and fresh milk in supermarkets. This situation is compounded by the accelerated penetration of national dairy companies into regional markets, putting additional pressure on local enterprises [2][6] Company Performance - Tianrun Dairy's revenue from long-term dairy products was 1.096 billion yuan, while revenue from low-temperature dairy products was 822 million yuan, both showing declines compared to the previous year. Revenue from livestock products and others totaled 94 million yuan, also down from last year [2] - In the Xinjiang market, the company's revenue was 1.106 billion yuan, nearly flat compared to 1.051 billion yuan last year. However, revenue from outside Xinjiang dropped from 1.044 billion yuan to 907 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 13% [5] Market Strategy - Despite challenges, the company aims to maintain a balanced focus on both Xinjiang and external markets. The management emphasized plans to deepen market penetration and explore opportunities in southern Xinjiang, while targeting core products like yogurt and white milk in external markets through differentiated channels [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the dairy market and the need for strategic adjustments [4][5]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81%, and a net loss of 11 million yuan compared to a net profit of 22 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11 million yuan, a significant decrease of 77.60% year-on-year [4]. Product Category Performance - Revenue from various product categories in Q3 2025 included 358 million yuan from ambient dairy products, 264 million yuan from chilled dairy products, and 30 million yuan from livestock products, reflecting declines of 3.81% and 5.87% respectively, while livestock products saw an increase of 80.08% [5]. - The overall market demand remains weak, with ongoing price competition affecting revenue from both ambient and chilled dairy products [5]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2025 was 358 million yuan, up 10.16% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the region was 300 million yuan, down 13.68% [5]. - The company is expanding its sales network through various channels, including airports and convenience stores, to enhance consumer reach [5]. Sales Model Analysis - In Q3 2025, revenue from the distribution model was 580 million yuan, down 8.06% year-on-year, while direct sales revenue increased by 88.32% to 78 million yuan [5]. - The growth in direct sales is attributed to the establishment of an e-commerce subsidiary and the transition of the sub-brand Jiali from a distribution model to a direct sales model [5]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 16.17%, decreasing to 14.72% in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.14 percentage points [6]. - The increase in sales expenses is linked to promotional activities, with the sales expense ratio for Q3 2025 at 6.46%, up 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 1.66%, down 5.38 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to market conditions and inventory impairments [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianrun Dairy [6][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.074 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.11 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [3] - The company has shown resilience in operations despite industry supply and demand pressures, with expectations for improvement in raw milk prices as the supply situation stabilizes [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 77.60% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.72%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points, while the net margin was 0.64%, down 5.68 percentage points [5] Product and Market Development - The company sold 226,800 tons of dairy products from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%. The revenue from ambient dairy products in Q3 2025 was 358 million yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [4] - New product launches include various low-temperature yogurt and milk beer flavors, contributing to a diversified product matrix [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Xinjiang region in Q3 2025 was 358 million yuan, up 10.16% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Xinjiang was 300 million yuan, down 13.68% year-on-year [4] - The company expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of distributors in Xinjiang to 388 and outside Xinjiang to 574, totaling 962 distributors [4] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 2.750 billion, 2.957 billion, and 3.200 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 27 million, 124 million, and 187 million yuan [5][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 116, 25, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's Q3 report reveals struggles within the industry cycle, with a revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year and a shift from profit to a net loss of 10.61 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.074 billion yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a net profit loss of 10.61 million yuan, a significant change from previous profitability [1] Factors Impacting Performance - The decline in performance is attributed to two main short-term shocks: 1. Cost pressures from optimizing the herd structure, with an increased focus on eliminating low-production-value cattle [1] 2. Provision for bad debts related to accounts receivable, particularly in the student milk and nurturing project segments, highlighting collection risks [1] Industry Context - The dairy industry is experiencing systemic shocks due to a downward cycle, with fresh milk prices in major production provinces dropping by 3.2% year-on-year as of late September [1] - Tianrun Dairy's product structure increases its sensitivity to industry cycles, with 54% of revenue from ambient dairy products and about 40% from chilled dairy products, both highly competitive segments [1] Strategic Response - In response to declining raw milk prices and overcapacity among upstream companies, Tianrun Dairy is reducing herd size and focusing on high-yield cattle to mitigate sensitivity to low milk prices, adopting a strategy of "short-term losses for long-term efficiency" [1] - The company faces ongoing challenges, including slow recovery in liquid milk demand, high costs during the ramp-up of new capacity, and unresolved bad debt provisioning risks [1] Future Outlook - The ability to upgrade capacity and control costs will determine whether Tianrun Dairy can achieve a breakthrough when the industry cycle turns [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's Q3 report reveals struggles within the industry cycle, with a revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year and a shift from profit to loss, indicating significant operational challenges amid low milk prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.074 billion yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders turned negative, recording a loss of 10.6145 million yuan, with Q3 net profit dropping 77.60% year-on-year to 11.2418 million yuan [1][2]. - Despite a 1.91% increase in dairy product sales to 226,800 tons, revenue declined, suggesting a potential impact from industry price wars [2]. Cost and Operational Challenges - The company faces cost pressures due to optimizing herd structure, with plans to reduce the number of cattle from 64,800 to 51,900 by September 2025, resulting in short-term costs that erode profits [1][3]. - Bad debt provisions related to student milk and nurturing project milk businesses have further impacted profits, highlighting collection risks [2]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is experiencing systemic shocks, with average fresh milk prices in major producing provinces dropping 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]. - Tianrun Dairy's gross margin has decreased from 16.76% in 2024 to 16.17% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges [2]. Competitive Landscape - As a regional dairy company, Tianrun's product structure increases sensitivity to market cycles, with 54% of revenue from ambient dairy products and about 40% from chilled dairy products, both facing intense competition [2]. - The strategy of reducing herd size and focusing on high-yield cows aims to mitigate sensitivity to low milk prices, representing a common approach during industry capacity reduction phases [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges include slow recovery in liquid milk demand, high costs during new capacity ramp-up, and unresolved bad debt risks [3]. - The ability to convert capacity upgrades and cost control into competitive advantages will be crucial for Tianrun Dairy to navigate the upcoming industry cycle turning point [3].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy reported a decline in revenue and a net loss for the first three quarters of 2023, indicating significant challenges in the dairy industry amid low milk prices and increased competition [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81% [1][2]. - In Q3, revenue was 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately -10.61 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - The total profit for Q3 was 1.58 million yuan, a decline of 96.50% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 77.60% in Q3 [2]. Sales and Product Performance - The company sold 226,800 tons of dairy products from January to September, an increase of 1.91% compared to the same period last year [3]. - Shelf-stable dairy products accounted for 54% of the company's revenue, while low-temperature dairy products contributed approximately 40% [3]. Industry Context - The Chinese dairy industry is currently experiencing a downturn, characterized by low milk prices, capacity reduction in upstream farming, and intense competition among downstream dairy companies [3]. - The company's net profit growth rates are projected to decline by 27.71% in 2023 and 69.26% in 2024 [3]. Operational Adjustments - Tianrun Dairy has actively eliminated low-yield dairy cows, with over 7,700 cows culled in 2024 [3]. - As of the reporting period, the company had 51,900 cows, a decrease of 12,900 from the end of 2024 [3]. - The proportion of breeding cows increased to 56%, enhancing breeding efficiency [3]. Production Capacity - The company’s annual production capacity for dairy products has reached 200,000 tons, with the project nearing completion and entering trial operations [3]. - The production system includes 21 operational systems, creating a comprehensive data ecosystem covering the entire dairy supply chain [3]. Market Performance - As of October 23, Tianrun Dairy's stock price increased by 1.76%, closing at 10.42 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.288 billion yuan [4].