上次评级 买入 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] Q2 净利润扭亏为盈，不强赎转债增强信心 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] 实现较大增幅。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 0.22/0.56/0.73 元， 分别对应 2025-2027 年 52X/21X/16X PE，维持对公司的"买入"评 级。 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧，扩产不及预期 | [T重a要bl财e务_P指r标ofit] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,714 | 2,804 | 2,825 | ...

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：2025-045 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于 2025 年半年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十四号——食品制造》的相关规定，现将新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、2025 年半年度主要经营数据情况 1、主营业务按照产品类别分类情况 2、主营业务按照销售渠道分类情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 销售渠道 | 年 月 2025 1-6 | | --- | --- | | 经销 | 1,215,298,102.93 | | 直销 | 139,304,199.76 | | 合计 | 1,354,602,302.69 | 3、主营业务按照地区分类情况 1 单位：元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Industry Co., Ltd. has reported significant declines in net profit, with a 69.24% drop in 2024 and a loss of 73.30 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking the lowest performance in nearly a decade [1][3][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tianrun Dairy's revenue was 625 million yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 73.30 million yuan, a staggering decline of 1713.36% [2] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.804 billion yuan, a 3.33% increase, but net profit fell to 43.66 million yuan, a 69.26% decrease [3] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased culling of low-yield cows and inventory impairment provisions for milk powder [2][3] Market Conditions - The dairy and cattle farming industries are facing challenges, with a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in national cattle inventory and a 12.3% drop in fresh milk prices in major producing provinces [2] - The company is experiencing a phase of oversupply in milk sources and intensified market competition, prompting it to optimize its core herd and explore new sales channels [2][3] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Xinjiang New Agricultural Dairy Co., Ltd. has significantly impacted Tianrun Dairy's profits, with a reported loss of 95.35 million yuan attributed to this acquisition in 2023 [4][5] - New Agricultural Dairy's performance has been poor post-acquisition, with losses continuing into 2024, further straining Tianrun Dairy's financials [5][6] Strategic Focus - Despite challenges, Tianrun Dairy's revenue from markets outside Xinjiang has shown growth, with 2024 figures indicating a 9.25% increase in revenue from these markets [7][8] - The company aims to leverage its advantages in Xinjiang's milk sources to build a robust product matrix and industry system [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue, with total revenue at 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is facing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decrease in milk prices. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin, which was 14.63% in Q1, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotional activities [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to increase its dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year, reaching 74,500 tons [4]. - The report forecasts that the company's earnings are expected to recover after an initial decline, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.24, 0.53, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company is projected to have total revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 3.3%, 4.9%, 8.6%, and 8.9%, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline significantly in 2024, with a forecast of 44 million yuan, before recovering to 78 million yuan in 2025 and reaching 246 million yuan by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.1%, 16.8%, 17.1%, 18.2%, and 19.2% from 2023 to 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue due to weak demand in the dairy industry, with a revenue of 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company faced a net loss of 73.3 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the culling of cows impacting profitability [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the report suggests that the company's operational resilience remains strong, and it anticipates a recovery in performance after an initial decline [4]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 2,714 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 12.6% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% [5]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 19.1%, with a forecasted increase to 19.2% by 2027 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.66 [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The dairy industry is experiencing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decline in milk prices and a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in the national cow inventory [4]. - The company has been exploring new sales channels and optimizing its cattle structure to improve production efficiency, with a reported increase in dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights that the company is actively addressing the challenges posed by increased market competition and supply-demand imbalances [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].

新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 | 证券代码：600419 | 证券简称：天润乳业 | 公告编号：临 | 2025-016 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110097 | 债券简称：天润转债 | | | 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及 其附件《第十四号——食品制造》的相关规定，现将新疆天润乳业股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、2025 年第一季度主要经营数据 1、主营业务按照产品类别分类情况 二、2025 年第一季度经销商变动情况 2、主营业务按照销售渠道分类情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 销售渠道 | 2025 年 1-3 月 | | --- | --- | | 经销 | 545,486,834.99 | | 直销 | 60,277,680.86 | | 合计 | 605,764,515 ...