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午评:沪指震荡微跌,银行板块拉升,半导体等板块下挫
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-04 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining, while certain sectors like banking are showing resilience [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3969.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.51% [1] - Over 3700 stocks in the market were in the red, indicating widespread declines [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2312 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as metals, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, automobiles, brokerages, and liquor are all experiencing declines [1] - Conversely, the banking sector is performing well, with coal, insurance, electricity, and real estate sectors also showing gains [1] - Concepts related to cross-strait integration and shipping are becoming more active [1] Future Outlook - Huachuang Securities predicts a policy vacuum in the next 1-2 months, leading to potential market consolidation [1] - The push against "involution" may cause temporary setbacks in production data, but a mid-term perspective suggests a stronger inflation rebound driven by supply before demand [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clearer economic growth targets and a more predictable policy environment, enhancing stability in both domestic and foreign policies, which may lead to further market uptrends [1] - A new cycle of profit growth has begun, with the market pricing in performance recovery, particularly in low-base sectors expected to show greater elasticity next year, focusing on cyclical and consumer sectors [1] Industry Insights - Historically, the collapse of the largest public fund sector is often due to fundamental risks leading to a downward cycle; however, the current electronics sector fundamentals do not indicate a similar collapse [1] - Attention should be paid to performance realization in the electronics sector moving forward [1] - Since October, there has been a continuous shift between high and low-performing stocks, which is expected to be gradual rather than abrupt [1] - For growth-oriented companies, internal structural adjustments are preferred over inter-industry shifts, with a focus on high-growth areas such as laser equipment, communication devices, PCB, and gaming [1]