国防军工行业 2025 年半年报业绩回顾 "业绩底"筑基，上游环节和兵器板块实现增长 2025 年 09 月 04 日 ➢ 核心观点 1H25，民生军工成分（不含舰船）营业总收入同比增长 7.5%；归母净利润 同比下滑 19.8%。其中，2Q25 营业总收入同比增长 17.1%/环比增长 59.2%； 归母净利润同比下滑 9.5%/环比增长 91.2%。我们观点如下：1）2023~2024 年 行业需求不振导致业绩承压；2025 年以来需求好转，1H25 营收同比已经开始 增长。2）降价、减值等是影响利润的核心因素，因此 1H25 行业营收端和利润 端出现"非线性"变化，而这种情况将对业绩预测带来很大不确定性。3）2025 年是行业"业绩底"，收入端率先体现。4）产业链不同环节交付顺序、确收周期 等有差异，因此 1H25 上游营收同比增长，但中游营收仍同比下滑。 ➢ 趋势分析 2Q25 业绩环比改善幅度好于 2Q24 同期；盈利能力持续承压。1）收入端： 2025 年以来行业需求恢复，在 1H25 的营收端已有所体现，预计全年营收端将 保持增长。2）利润端：3Q23~2Q25，行业归母净利润连续 8 个季度同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is undergoing a significant transformation due to policy changes, with expectations of reaching a performance bottom by the first half of 2026 [1] - The stock price of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) rose by 9.54% to HKD 8.04, with a trading volume of HKD 1.25 billion [1] - Guotai Junan Securities released a report suggesting that liquor stocks may experience a trend reversal ahead of demand-side recovery, driven by high-frequency signals such as pricing [1] Group 2 - Zhenjiu Lidu's recent earnings forecast indicates a projected revenue of HKD 2.4 to 2.55 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit anticipated to drop by 39% to 40% year-on-year [1] - On August 8, the founder of Zhenjiu Lidu, Wu Xiangdong, launched a new beer product, using premium ingredients from various countries, priced at HKD 88 per bottle and HKD 1,056 per case [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has risen over 8%, currently trading at 7.94 HKD, with a transaction volume of 82.0855 million HKD, amid expectations of a market bottom for the liquor industry by mid-2026 due to policy changes [1][1]. Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu has issued a performance forecast indicating that its revenue for the first half of the year is expected to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1][1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to decline by 39% to 40% [1][1]. Industry Summary - According to a report from Guotai Junan Securities, the liquor industry is undergoing a cleansing process accelerated by policy variables, with expectations that the industry will reach a performance bottom by the first half of 2026 [1][1]. - The report suggests that liquor stock prices may show a trend reversal ahead of demand-side improvements, based on high-frequency signals such as batch prices [1][1].