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东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 05:31
编者按:在美国关税冲击以及地缘政治回潮等复杂挑战下,东亚各国以及地区合作面临巨大的"压力测 试"。以东盟和中日韩(10+3)机制为主渠道的东亚合作如何保持韧性,并在转危为机中实现更大发 展?本期"环球圆桌对话"就此展开讨论。 许利平:中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员 当然,在单边主义、保护主义和经济霸凌冲击国际多边贸易体制的大背景下,东亚合作也面临着复杂挑 战。比如,地区国家出口面临美国关税冲击。10+3国家多为外向型经济体,相当程度上依赖出口拉动 经济增长。这种出口导向的经济发展模式一方面是面向东亚区域内部,另一方面也面向区域外,尤其是 与美欧的贸易往来。目前来看,对美出口在地区国家对外贸易中普遍占据相当高的比例,美国滥施关税 将对东亚国家出口产生直接影响。当然,美国关税冲击也会刺激地区国家对商品出口进行结构性调整, 包括减少对美出口,增加对区域内以及美国之外其他国家和地区的出口比重。 尽管如此,地区国家出口成本还是不可避免地将会有所增加。长期以来,经济全球化和世界范围内的产 业分工促进资金、人力、原材料和中间品等各种资源自由流动、优化配置。但美国挑动关税和贸易摩 擦,对全球产供链包括中间品贸易造成打击 ...
环球圆桌对话:东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 23:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the resilience of East Asian cooperation, particularly through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, in the face of challenges such as U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6][13] - The 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience despite global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][12] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, initiated in the 1990s, has evolved to address crises, with significant achievements like the Chiang Mai Initiative aimed at establishing a regional currency swap network [2][3] Group 2 - The cooperation framework is characterized by crisis-driven collaboration, enhancing political trust among member countries, and leveraging the large consumer market of approximately 2.2 billion people [3][4] - The region faces challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, particularly from U.S. tariffs impacting export-dependent economies, prompting structural adjustments in trade [4][6] - The U.S. tariff strategy has led to varying responses among 10+3 countries, with Japan and South Korea committing significant investments to maintain lower tariff rates, while ASEAN countries like Vietnam have begun to align more closely with U.S. trade requirements [6][7] Group 3 - The articles emphasize the need for 10+3 countries to strengthen regional integration and maintain open trade principles to enhance collective benefits [5][8] - The RCEP agreement is highlighted as a crucial element for regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules across various sectors [8][12] - The potential for digital and green economies to serve as new growth engines for the region is discussed, alongside the importance of establishing a regional financial safety net [8][12][14]