东亚区域合作
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东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 05:31
Core Insights - The East Asian cooperation, primarily through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, is under significant pressure due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical challenges, necessitating resilience and adaptability for future growth [1][4][12] Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - The ASEAN and 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience amid global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][2] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which originated in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, has evolved to address economic recovery and long-term development, highlighting its crisis-driven nature [2][3] Group 2: Structural Adjustments and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs pose a direct threat to the export-driven economies of the 10+3 countries, which rely heavily on trade with the U.S. and are now compelled to adjust their export structures [4][5] - Countries like Japan and South Korea have engaged in significant investments and market openings to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, while ASEAN nations are experiencing internal divisions regarding trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7] Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The 10+3 cooperation framework is characterized by a strong emphasis on political trust and market complementarity, with a combined population of approximately 2.2 billion, creating a substantial consumer market [3][4] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a vital tool for enhancing regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules of origin [11][12] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen regional cooperation, the 10+3 countries should maintain ASEAN's central role, implement RCEP effectively, and embrace digital and green economies as new growth engines [8][9] - Enhancing the regional financial safety net and exploring local currency settlements are crucial for increasing resilience against external economic shocks [8][12]
环球圆桌对话:东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 23:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the resilience of East Asian cooperation, particularly through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, in the face of challenges such as U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6][13] - The 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience despite global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][12] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, initiated in the 1990s, has evolved to address crises, with significant achievements like the Chiang Mai Initiative aimed at establishing a regional currency swap network [2][3] Group 2 - The cooperation framework is characterized by crisis-driven collaboration, enhancing political trust among member countries, and leveraging the large consumer market of approximately 2.2 billion people [3][4] - The region faces challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, particularly from U.S. tariffs impacting export-dependent economies, prompting structural adjustments in trade [4][6] - The U.S. tariff strategy has led to varying responses among 10+3 countries, with Japan and South Korea committing significant investments to maintain lower tariff rates, while ASEAN countries like Vietnam have begun to align more closely with U.S. trade requirements [6][7] Group 3 - The articles emphasize the need for 10+3 countries to strengthen regional integration and maintain open trade principles to enhance collective benefits [5][8] - The RCEP agreement is highlighted as a crucial element for regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules across various sectors [8][12] - The potential for digital and green economies to serve as new growth engines for the region is discussed, alongside the importance of establishing a regional financial safety net [8][12][14]