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环球圆桌对话:东亚区域合作如何顶住这场“压力测试”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 23:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the resilience of East Asian cooperation, particularly through the ASEAN and 10+3 mechanisms, in the face of challenges such as U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6][13] - The 10+3 region is projected to have an economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, showing resilience despite global trade turmoil, although growth may slow to 3.6% in 2026 due to ongoing challenges [1][12] - The 10+3 cooperation mechanism, initiated in the 1990s, has evolved to address crises, with significant achievements like the Chiang Mai Initiative aimed at establishing a regional currency swap network [2][3] Group 2 - The cooperation framework is characterized by crisis-driven collaboration, enhancing political trust among member countries, and leveraging the large consumer market of approximately 2.2 billion people [3][4] - The region faces challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, particularly from U.S. tariffs impacting export-dependent economies, prompting structural adjustments in trade [4][6] - The U.S. tariff strategy has led to varying responses among 10+3 countries, with Japan and South Korea committing significant investments to maintain lower tariff rates, while ASEAN countries like Vietnam have begun to align more closely with U.S. trade requirements [6][7] Group 3 - The articles emphasize the need for 10+3 countries to strengthen regional integration and maintain open trade principles to enhance collective benefits [5][8] - The RCEP agreement is highlighted as a crucial element for regional economic integration, focusing on tariff reductions and unified rules across various sectors [8][12] - The potential for digital and green economies to serve as new growth engines for the region is discussed, alongside the importance of establishing a regional financial safety net [8][12][14]
社科院报告聚焦稳定币及中国应对,建议以监管沙盒等方式探索应用
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 11:59
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for China to promote a diversified, equitable, and stable international monetary system in response to rising uncertainties in the current international monetary framework, highlighting the dual trends of fragmentation and diversification [1] Group 1: International Monetary System - The current international monetary system is experiencing increased uncertainty, with the U.S. dollar's dominance unlikely to collapse in the short term, but future developments may lead to a more fragmented and diversified system [1] - China should push for the diversification of reserve currencies to enhance the safety of foreign exchange reserves and cautiously advance the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In March 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing its total holdings down to $765.4 billion, thus falling from the second-largest to the third-largest holder [2] - The report suggests optimizing the strategy for holding U.S. Treasury bonds by flexibly adjusting the duration and constructing a diversified reserve system to enhance economic and financial resilience [2] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The report identifies the internationalization of the Renminbi as a crucial direction, focusing on countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP regions [2] - It recommends increasing the use of the Renminbi in trade settlements and investment activities in neighboring countries to enhance its acceptance and influence [2] Group 4: Stablecoins - The global stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, particularly with U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins extending their influence into traditional finance [3] - The report advocates for China to recognize and respond to this trend by exploring stablecoin applications through regulatory sandboxes and enhancing research in this area [3] Group 5: Regional Financial Cooperation - The report calls for the establishment of a regional financial safety net and strengthening financial cooperation with neighboring partners such as ASEAN and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [3] - It emphasizes the need for a robust internal financial risk prevention system, including macro-prudential management frameworks and monitoring of cross-border capital flows [3]
潘功胜:区域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-05-06 10:31
近 日 , 中 国 人 民 银 行 行 长 潘 功 胜 率 团 赴 意 大 利 米 兰 出 席 东 盟 与 中 日 韩 (1 0+3)财长和央行行长会,并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相 关讨论时表示,进一步完善清迈倡议机制、强化本区域金融安全网至关重 要。引入可以人民币等非美元可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具,既拓 展了清迈倡议的可用资源,凸显了区域特色,也标志着国际货币体系多元 化在本地区的积极进展,具有突破性意义。潘功胜呼吁区域国家团结一致 应对美关税冲击,他还介绍了中方相关宏观经济政策。 2025年5月4日至5日,中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩(10+3)财长和央 行行长会,并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论,与会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域 宏观经济形势造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化(CMIM)机制和10+3宏观经济研究办公室(AMRO) 等议题深入交换了意见,并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共 识。会议一致通过了在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安 排,并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步讨论方 ...