研究报告 Research Report 1 Jul 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 经济预测：预计东南亚各国 2H25 经济预计将维持温和增长，整体 增速在 4%至 5%之间。随着通胀普遍回落至 2%–3%，各国央行有更 多政策操作空间。越南若成功避免美国高关税，3Q25 将以制造业 和基建为支撑；菲律宾内需与汇款拉动明显；泰国受消费疲软与出 口承压拖累，全年增速承压；新加坡则因外部需求疲弱面临更大压 力。整体来看，下半年东南亚经济仍将依靠内需恢复、基建投资与 旅游复苏支撑，但外部风险如中美贸易摩擦、全球需求放缓等仍是 主要不确定因素。亚洲开发银行预计 2025 年东盟增长将维持在 4.7%左右，2026 年同样约 4.7％，而国际货币基金组织下调亚太整 体增速至 3.9％，指出贸易摩擦等因素对区域构成压力。 消费：消费指标表现各异。2025 年 5 月印尼消费者信心指数为 117.50，创下自 2022 年 9 月以来的新低。2025 年 4 月马来食品饮 料批发指数为 165.2，同比增长 5.5%；零售板块食品饮料指 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 据新华社报道，美国东部时间6月3日，美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特证实，美国政府已向贸易伙伴 发出信函，催促加快贸易谈判进程。白宫并未透露哪些经济体收到催促信函，但包括财政部长贝森特在 内的高级官员表示，他们正与越南、日本和印度等国展开谈判。 美国关税政策频繁变动，影响亚太股市的走势。全周来看，亚太股市涨跌互现。 上周，越南胡志明指数周跌0.21%，报1329.77点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌0.87%，报7113.43 点；新加坡海峡指数周涨1.02%，报3934.29点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨0.56%，1516.79点；菲律 宾马尼拉指数周涨0.56%，报6376.79点；泰国SET指数周跌1.11%，报1136.43点。 亚太其他地区股指多数上涨。日经225指数周跌0.59%或223.49点，报37741.61点；韩国KOSPI指数周涨 4.24%或114.38点，报2812.05点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.96%，报8515.7点。 中国银行研究院主管王有鑫向21世纪经济报道记者表示，亚太股市频繁波动主要有几方面原因：一是， 全球经 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify explicit investment ratings for the Southeast Asia Staples and Discretionary sectors. Core Insights - Economic growth in Indonesia and Thailand has slowed, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q3 2021, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and reduced government spending [15] - Thailand's GDP growth was 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] Economic Data - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 4.87%, marking a decline from previous quarters, influenced by weak domestic consumption and government spending cuts [15] - Thailand's GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 3.1%, showing a slowdown from the previous quarter's 3.3% [23] - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 6.93% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter from 2020 to 2025 [37] Inflation Trends - In April 2025, Indonesia's CPI increased by 1.95% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in consumption during the Eid holiday [18] - Thailand experienced its first deflation since March 2024, with a CPI decrease of 0.22% in March 2025 [24] - Vietnam's CPI rose by 3.12% year-on-year in April 2025, with core inflation increasing to 3.14% [2] Consumer Sentiment and Retail Performance - Consumer confidence in Indonesia declined, with the consumer confidence index at 121.10 in March 2025, down from 123.80 in the previous year [20] - Malaysia's leading index rose to 112.5 in March 2025, indicating potential future economic activity [3] - In April 2025, Vietnam's retail sales index for food and beverages showed a year-on-year decline of 1.66% [20] Market Performance - In April 2025, stock indices in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia rose by 3.9%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively, while Singapore and Vietnam indices fell by 3.4% and 6.9% [13] - The report highlights that only Vietnam's consumer sectors outperformed the indices, while other markets' consumer sectors lagged [3] Valuation Metrics - As of April 2025, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios at 1% and 3% respectively, while Thailand's were at 4% and 62% [4] - Singapore's essential and discretionary consumer sectors had historical PE ratios of 36% and 33% respectively [4]