以下文章来源于字母PRO ，作者薛亚萍 不出意外，董宇辉在2025年依然保持了高速增长态势。 据第三方平台统计，2025年与辉同行累计直播421场，场均GMV（商品交易总额）为5000万-7500万元，据此估算， 其全年GMV约达210亿-315亿元。相 比2024年的约百亿GMV，至少翻了一倍不止。 另一家第三方平台统计显示，仅在2025年四季度，与辉同行便直播87场，场均GMV为5000万-7500万元，推算其三个月GMV约为43亿-65亿元。据此估 算，与辉同行全年GMV约为172亿-260亿元。 对于上述第三方数据，与辉同行方面回应称，公司内部数据不对外公布，一般情况第三方数据均不准确。 字母PRO . 了解互联网巨头们的一切。 与自己和解，与卖货和解。 文 ｜ 薛亚萍 编辑 ｜ 王靖 来源｜ 字母PRO（ID：molibang168） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 但各方数据均一致指向其业绩在2025年实现了 大幅 增长。 数据增长的背后，是董宇辉对直播带货的态度发生了明显转变。 这一年以来， 董宇辉在个人IP塑造上更为从容和主动 ，逐渐摆脱早期"知识主播"与"卖货"之间的心理拉扯，不但不再拧巴， ...

2026 十大研判 20260105 2026 年 A 股市场将在康波萧条期迎来繁荣，大盘指数大概率创新高。 建议关注有色金属、新消费/大众消费、高端制造以及国产算力链条。 Q&A 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是人民币汇率升值驱动，实体部门的现金 流量表已经改善，资产负债表也有望得到修复。随着美联储重启降息，跨境资 本将加速回流中国，这将带来 PPI 和 CPI 相继走出通缩。2025 年只是牛市的 前菜，而 2026 年将迎来估值和盈利的戴维斯双击。预计美联储可能会进行量 化宽松（QE），而中国央行也可能实施大规模化债政策，从而快速修复实体部 门的资产负债表。 为什么认为 2026 年是中国回归繁荣的起点？ 2018 年，中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式进入工业化成熟期。这一阶段类 似于 1,945 年的美国和 1975 年的日本，制造业拥有强劲的对外出口能力，可 以赚取大量国民财富并改善内需消费景气。因此，从 2019 年开始，中国就进 入了康波萧条期作为追赶国的繁荣期。然而，由于美联储激进加息导致跨境资 本外流，以及房价暴跌导致居民和企业部门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the consumer sector showing strong performance, while the real estate sector rebounded from low levels. External factors, such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, briefly boosted market sentiment, but the gains were not sustained, indicating that external factors can only cause short-term emotional fluctuations without altering the underlying market logic [1][4][14] - The recent market volatility is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the strength of domestic economic recovery, the time required for policy effects to materialize, and seasonal liquidity pressures as the year-end approaches. Institutional rebalancing for annual performance also contributes to short-term disturbances [1][14] Sector Analysis Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has been active, with significant gains in retail, food and beverage, and other consumer stocks driven by favorable consumption policies. Recent government initiatives aim to stimulate consumption, indicating a structural rally in this sector [7][8][10] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a rebound due to the implementation of supportive policies from both central and local governments. The focus on stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local debt risks is expected to improve the sector's fundamentals, providing short-term boosts to the market [10][11] Financial Sector - The financial sector, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, has shown upward momentum. Recent regulatory adjustments have lowered risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to enhance their performance. The overall market conditions, including liquidity and economic recovery, are favorable for the financial sector [11][12] Technology Sector - The technology sector, including semiconductor and AI-related industries, remains a focus for investment. The report suggests selecting stocks with strong earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [2][14] Automotive Sector - The autonomous driving sector has gained attention with the approval of L3 level autonomous driving vehicles for commercial use, marking a significant step towards commercialization in China. This development is expected to drive interest and investment in related stocks [12]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]

Group 1 - The market status indicates an increased correlation between the US and Chinese markets, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile, reflecting a new normal of "overnight alignment and intraday reversal" [2][10][13] - The US core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment, indicating a stable economic environment without significant inflationary pressures [2][10][13] - China's economic fundamentals show a combination of corporate profit bottoming out and a decline in domestic demand, which opens a window for further policy support [2][10][13] Group 2 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a divergence, with broader AI-related assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [3][24][25] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][24][25] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by demand from AI investments, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [3][24][25] Group 3 - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is emphasized as a strategic move, with a focus on increasing consumer demand supported by income growth and effective investment [4][31][32] - The government plans to enhance the second distribution of income by increasing minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies, while future efforts may focus on optimizing the first distribution through wage reforms [4][31][32] - Historical examples from Japan and the US illustrate that income growth leads to increased service and new-type consumption, suggesting that China's current income growth initiatives could similarly boost consumer spending [4][31][32] Group 4 - The current market environment, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggests a shift in investment strategy towards tangible demand and domestic policy benefits as the new focus for 2026 [5][42][43] - Recommendations include investing in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors poised for recovery in consumer spending (airlines, hotels, duty-free, food and beverages) [5][42][43] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a rebound in long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and manufacturing sectors [5][42][43]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]

物价持续攀升已成为日本首相高市早苗面临的一大执政挑战。在她就任首相之前，由于民众对生活成本 高企的不满情绪日益升温，其所属的执政党自民党已在两场全国性选举中受挫。 整体通胀率同样符合分析师预期，录得2.9%;而进一步剔除能源价格的通胀指标同比涨幅为3%，较前月 小幅回落。 这份通胀数据出炉之际，距离日本央行议息决议公布仅剩数小时。接受一项调查的50位经济学家一致预 测，日本央行将把基准利率上调至0.75%，这将是30年来的最高水平。在央行持续推动货币政策向中性 立场靠拢的背景下，本次通胀数据或将令投资者进一步聚焦2026年后续加息节奏。 值得注意的是，日本核心通胀指标已连续44个月站上央行设定的2%通胀目标。本轮整体通胀上行的背 后，能源价格回升构成重要支撑——随着政府削减公用事业补贴，能源相关消费成本出现明显反弹。 日本核心通胀指标连续第二个月稳定在3%，在日本央行即将召开议息会议的数小时前，这一数据释放 出物价压力持续高企的信号。市场普遍预计，日本央行将迎来自今年1月以来的首次加息操作。 日本总务省周五发布的数据显示，剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)11月同比上涨3%，涨幅与 前月持平，且与经济 ...

研究报告 Research Report 19 Dec 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 11 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，多数消费跑输指数 Moderate, Uneven Inflation; Most Consumer Sectors Underperform the Index [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI 80 100 120 140 160 HAI Southeast Asia Staples HAI Southeast Asia Discretionary MSCI China Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善 Inflation Moderate and Differentiated; Consumption Structurally Impr ...