持续调整，恢复增长 汤臣倍健(300146) ——公司跟踪报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.22 2025-11-24 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 [Table_Invest] [Table_Target] [Table_CurPrice] 本报告导读： 低基数下，优化产品、运营，业绩恢复增长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 9,407 | 6,838 | 6,291 | 6,606 | 7,134 | | (+/-)% | 19.7% | -27.3% | -8.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 1,746 | 653 | 785 | 875 | 1,039 | | (+/-)% | 26.0% | -62.6% | 20.2% | 11.4% | 18.9% | | 每股净收益(元) | 1.03 | 0.39 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.21 营收逐季提速，持续开拓可期 妙可蓝多(600882) ——公司跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 陈力宇(分析师) | 021-38677618 | chenliyu@gtht.com | S0880522090005 | 本报告导读： 2025Q3 公司营收增长提速，利润低基数上继续明显改善，奶酪品类长期渗透率提升 空间较大，公司 B 端开拓和 C 端改善之下逐步提速成长可期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI year-on-year will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets [3] - It is anticipated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate in 2026, leading to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets by foreign investors [3][12] - The report highlights that during historical phases of PPI recovery, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, indicating a positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability [16] Historical Review - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI year-on-year growth, particularly during phases of PPI recovery and RMB appreciation [7][9] - The report outlines four cycles of RMB appreciation and depreciation since 2015, noting that during appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced price increases [10][12] - The report identifies that the leading sectors during the appreciation phases were internet and cyclical stocks, benefiting from improved profitability expectations [15] Profitability Trends - The report indicates that during periods of PPI year-on-year growth, there is a notable improvement in ROE for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a direct impact of PPI on corporate earnings [16] - The report notes that as of the third quarter of 2025, A-share ROE has stabilized at the bottom, and Hong Kong stock ROE is expected to improve alongside PPI growth in 2026 [3][22] Foreign Investment Insights - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets, with a significant increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs in 2025, indicating heightened interest in core assets [4] - The report mentions that the A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting increased foreign interest in Hong Kong-listed core assets [4] - It is noted that over 30 major market cap companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets belong to sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and quality dividend stocks, which are expected to benefit from improving profitability [3][4] Sector Focus - The report identifies key sectors expected to benefit from improving ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI-related core assets), and cyclical sectors [3] - It emphasizes that sectors with strong competitive advantages, such as high-end manufacturing and specialty consumption, are likely to attract foreign investment [3] - The report also points out that domestic funds have room to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public fund portfolios allocated to Hong Kong [4][22]

Group 1 - The report highlights a critical week for the US stock market, focusing on Nvidia's earnings report and non-farm payroll data, with expectations of liquidity improvement and sentiment recovery [3][13][20] - The A-share market is expected to experience fluctuations, with attention on price increases in sectors like new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, as well as low-level rebounds in dividend-paying sectors such as banking and coal [3][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the overall A-share index has declined, with small-cap stocks outperforming, while the ChiNext index has shown weakness [4][30] - In terms of sector performance, industries such as consumer goods, retail, and basic chemicals have led gains, while sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and military defense have faced declines [4][31] Group 3 - The report notes a slight recovery in trading activity within the A-share market, with an increase in average daily trading volume and turnover rate [5][39] - The report also mentions a rise in panic sentiment domestically, with the implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF increasing [5][43] Group 4 - The report discusses the weak performance of social financing and credit in October, with new loans significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling economy [23][26] - It highlights that the economic indicators, including exports and fixed asset investment, have shown a downward trend, with retail sales continuing to decline for five consecutive months [26][27] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the focus on sectors experiencing price increases, low-level rebounds, and technology themes, including military industry, domestic semiconductors, AI applications, and new energy [29][30] - It also points out that the electronic industry is nearing historical high valuation levels in terms of PE and PB ratios [33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 6.02% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 216.28 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.54% increase [10]. - The introduction of new product categories has been a highlight, with revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauces, and other condiments increasing by 7.9%, 5.9%, 9.6%, and 13.4% respectively [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 39.63%, up by 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in prices of key raw materials such as soybeans and sugar [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 224.827 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5,852 million shares [3]. - The net asset per share is 6.76 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.20, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11%, 12%, and 12% [10][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.652 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 5.627 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.860 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [9][11].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 昨天上涨较多的创业板、科创板，下跌超2%。 港股今天也下跌。 昨天美股出现了比较大的波动。 今天大盘整体下跌，还在4.1星。 大盘股下跌略多，中小盘股微跌。 价值风格波动相对较小。 银行等指数微涨。 成长风格相对低迷。 纳斯达克等下跌超过2%，周五盘前美股股指期货继续下跌。 导致今天全球股票市场比较低迷。 亚太地区股票市场普遍下跌1-2%以上。 美股在10月底的时候，达到了高估，也是今年以来首次达到高估。 在进入高估之后，美股的波动变大。 之后纳斯达克从高点回调约5%，回到了正常偏高。 波动原因，一方面是因为高估回调； 另一方面是因为美联储12月份是否继续降息还不太明朗，引发市场担心。 A股等人民币资产估值还没有太高，最近的全球波动中相对风险小一些。 A股之前连续三周上涨，本周略微下跌，最近波动不大，相对还比较坚挺。 1. 有朋友问，消费类指数有哪些？它们有啥区别呢？ 一般提到消费行业，会有两种：必需消费、可选消费。 （1）必需消费 是我们日常生活中必不可少的消费品。 主要是食品饮料，包括酒、乳制品、肉制品等。 例如中证消费、食品饮料、白酒等，都是必需消费品种。 （2） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market present investment opportunities, despite external volatility and investor sentiment leaning towards securing profits [1] - The report suggests that the market is expected to recognize various positive factors and discrepancies, leading to potential upward movement after a period of consolidation [1] - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell strategy," focusing on aggressive investments in technology (AI chain) and non-ferrous metals, while defensive investments should concentrate on high-dividend stocks and turnaround situations [1] Group 2 - The "turnaround" strategy focuses on essential consumer goods, which are showing signs of supply-demand inflection after four years of difficulties, with valuations still at historical lows [2] - Companies with competitive advantages are expected to increase market share and profit margins, leading to alpha growth, and the industry competitive landscape is anticipated to improve [2] - The high dividend strategy highlights the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, which has a dividend yield of 6%, supported by stable dividend capabilities and increasing demand for dividend stocks due to the growth of southbound capital [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market present investment opportunities, driven by external volatility and investor sentiment to secure profits. The market is expected to recognize various positive factors, leading to potential upward movement after a period of consolidation [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Policy Insights - The macroeconomic environment in China continues to show marginal slowdown, but the new economy, particularly technology, is experiencing strong growth with a half-year profit growth rate of 31.7%, providing robust support for the stock market [2]. - There are signs of easing tensions in US-China relations, with recent high-level talks resulting in several temporary measures, supporting the view of "competition without conflict." The government's upcoming policies are expected to focus on technology innovation, expanding domestic demand, and macroeconomic adjustments [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Valuation - Continuous net inflows from foreign and southbound funds are observed, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and three additional cuts next year, totaling 75 basis points [3]. - The end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction in December is anticipated to alleviate liquidity pressures, further encouraging overseas capital to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The combination of fundamental support, favorable policies, and improved liquidity positions the Hong Kong stock market in a valuation trough, which is expected to drive a rebound [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy is a return to a "barbell strategy," focusing on offensive positions in technology (AI chain) and non-ferrous metals, while defensive positions should emphasize dividend stocks and turnaround opportunities [4]. - The AI industry chain is highlighted as a resilient growth sector with significant long-term potential, with recommendations for investments in internet-related AI, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and electric power [4]. - Non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from a combination of dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity, with gold also gaining from global central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Defensive Strategies - The "turnaround" strategy focuses on essential consumer goods, which are showing signs of supply-demand inflection after four years of challenges, with valuations still at historical lows [5]. - Companies with competitive advantages are expected to increase market share and profit margins, suggesting a phased buying approach for long-term holding [5]. - High dividend strategies are emphasized, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index offering a stable dividend yield of 6%, driven by increasing demand for "fixed income plus" products from southbound funds [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is actively optimizing its product structure, leading to a revenue decline in Q3, but profit margins remained stable. Future focus will be on the 2C business and coffee segment [1][4]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.27% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin decreased by 4.26 percentage points to 12.56% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant decline of 68.54% year-on-year, with the net profit margin dropping by 3.45 percentage points to 1.47% [4][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,841 million RMB, with a forecasted decline to 2,311 million RMB in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 to 2,352 million RMB [3][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 258 million RMB in 2023 to 84 million RMB in 2024, with a further decline to 47 million RMB in 2025 [3][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.57 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.18 RMB in 2024, and recovering to 0.10 RMB in 2025 [3][6]. Product Performance - In Q3, the non-dairy creamer segment saw a decline of 2.60% year-on-year, while coffee and plant-based products experienced significant growth of 56.67% and 62.51% respectively [4][9]. - The syrup segment faced a substantial decline of 54.27%, contributing to the overall revenue drop due to the company's product optimization strategy [4][9]. 2C Business Development - The company has achieved a breakthrough in its 2C business, with revenue reaching 57.57 million RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 132.77% [4][9]. - The company employs a dual-drive strategy focusing on both B2B and B2C, with significant investment in online platforms such as TikTok, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Tmall [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Insights - Despite a decline in revenue for the third quarter, the company continues to maintain good profit expansion, with a high growth trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025. The company is expected to continue gaining market share in the future [1][5]. - Both domestic and international markets have shown rapid growth, with the domestic market growing by 21.12% to RMB 379 million and the international market growing by 32.37% to RMB 936 million in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][9]. - The company has plans for capacity expansion, including new plants and production lines, which are expected to enhance future market share [5][9]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.837 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 29.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 378 million, reflecting a growth of 44.8% [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at RMB 1.11, RMB 1.33, and RMB 1.61 respectively, while the book value per share (BPS) is expected to be RMB 8.47, RMB 9.37, and RMB 10.45 [5][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 24.38%, with a slight decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][9]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company has established a plant in Xinjiang Aksu in 2023 and signed a strategic cooperation agreement in May 2024 for further capacity investment in Shaanxi Province. Additionally, plans are in place to invest in a juice processing line in Liaoning Province, which is expected to process 120,000 tons of apples and pears annually, generating approximately RMB 200 million in revenue [5][9].