长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0919 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 消费行业的分类 消费行业，跟投资者的日常生活密切相关，也是最知名的行业。 一般提到消费行业，会有两种：必需消费、可选消费。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，消费有哪些细分行业，长期表现如何？ 过去20年，消费行业经历了哪些牛熊市？为啥今年比较低迷，之后还会起来吗？ 投资消费行业，需要注意哪些？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 （1）必需消费 是我们日常生活中必不可少的消费品。 主要是食品饮料，包括酒、乳制品、肉制品等。 （2）可选消费 是提高我们生活质量的消费品。 主要是汽车、家电、传媒娱乐等。 像之前比较火的新能源车属于可选消费，游戏属于传媒娱乐。 另外，消费行业和一些策略进行叠加，也可以组成新的指数。 比如，消费行业和龙头策略进行叠加，组成了消费龙头指数。 下面这张图，汇总了消费行业的常见指数，方便大家更加直观地了解消费行业的分类、具体情况等。 消费行业的长期表现 长期来看，消费行业的表现不错。 如下是11个一级行业从2004年年底以来的表现。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend remains intact, suggesting a focus on structural themes rather than index points [1] - The report identifies AI technology and non-ferrous metals as the two main investment themes, with Alibaba (09988) being the preferred choice in the AI sector due to its full-stack AI capabilities, and attention on copper price upward opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The report recommends increasing allocation to sectors experiencing a reversal of difficulties, such as essential consumption, high dividend strategies, and undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks, while avoiding excessive concentration risk in holdings [1] Group 2 - Last week (September 22-26), the Hong Kong stock market saw a general decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.57% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.58%, while the AH premium significantly widened to 120 [1] - From an industry perspective, most major sectors in the Hong Kong stock market experienced declines, with only the materials sector showing an increase, while sectors such as conglomerates, real estate, and essential consumption led the declines [1] - In terms of micro-funding, there was a net outflow of Hong Kong capital, while both southbound and foreign capital saw net inflows: 1) Southbound capital had a total net inflow of HKD 44 billion, primarily flowing into non-essential consumption and information technology; 2) Foreign capital net bought USD 555 million through ETFs; 3) Local Hong Kong ETFs also saw a net inflow of HKD 7.7 billion, totaling a net inflow of HKD 59.6 billion year-to-date [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and future outlook of the consumer industry, highlighting its historical cycles of bull and bear markets over the past 20 years [1][11][13]. - The consumer industry is categorized into two main segments: essential consumption and discretionary consumption [5][6][7]. - Essential consumption includes daily necessities such as food and beverages, while discretionary consumption encompasses items that enhance quality of life, like automobiles and entertainment [6][7]. Group 2 - The consumer industry has shown good long-term performance, with both essential and discretionary segments being considered excellent investment options [11]. - Over the past 20 years, the consumer industry has experienced four cycles of bull and bear markets, indicating its volatility [13]. - The consumer industry has been relatively sluggish this year, with A-share consumer indices showing only slight increases compared to the broader market [15][19]. Group 3 - The recent low performance in the consumer industry can be attributed to high valuations in 2021, followed by a correction phase, leading to a decline in both valuation and earnings growth [17][22]. - The current economic cycle reflects a basic characteristic of the economy, where low fundamentals lead to pessimism and declining valuations, while improving fundamentals can boost investor optimism and valuations [26]. - Investment in the consumer industry should focus on undervalued opportunities, with a recommendation to buy during low valuation periods and hold until high valuations are reached [30][31].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with several factors alleviating liquidity constraints in September [1] - The easing of liquidity constraints is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved funding conditions in Hong Kong, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and the resolution of profit concerns following interim reports [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The current economic recovery is weak, with a notable divergence between old and new economic structures, while the Chinese government continues to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - The focus of industrial policy is on "Artificial Intelligence+", with the State Council issuing relevant action plans to accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces [2] Group 3: Liquidity and Valuation - The disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which fell significantly below expectations, has led to a projected interest rate cut in September, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points expected this year [3] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for approximately 30% of market transactions, providing significant support to the market [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes three aggressive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see growth due to the resolution of interim report concerns and sustained capital expenditure, while the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is only half that of the Nasdaq, indicating potential for recovery [4] - Non-ferrous metals are driven by a combination of U.S. dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity, while high-dividend stocks are in demand due to stable dividend capabilities and the growing interest in "fixed income plus" products among southbound investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with both internal and external liquidity remaining abundant [1][2]. Liquidity and Valuation - Factors constraining liquidity have eased, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved funding conditions in Hong Kong, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and the resolution of profit concerns following the interim reports [2][3]. - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for about 30% of market transactions, becoming a significant market support [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - The earnings growth of Hong Kong companies is at a historically low level, with a clear division between old and new economic structures [2]. - China is maintaining a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effectiveness of policy implementation [2]. Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes three offensive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4]. - Technology stocks are expected to see sustainable growth potential, with the Hang Seng Technology Index valued at only half of the Nasdaq [4]. - Non-bank financials are benefiting from record trading volumes and improved investment returns [4]. - High-dividend strategies are supported by a stable dividend yield of 6.12% from the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, with increasing demand for dividend stocks [4].

来源：市场资讯 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望后市，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新一轮上涨。从港股中 报数据来看，港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平，新旧经济结构分化明显，以科技为主导的结构性行 情具有坚实的盈利支撑。配置方向上聚焦三进攻（科技、有色、非银）+两底仓（困境反转、红利）。 核心观点 ⚑ 港股9月核心观点。短期看，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新 一轮上涨。9月制约流动性因素有所缓解：1）美联储降息推进；2）香港市场资金面偏紧问题缓解；3） 南向资金持续流入港股市场；4）中报"靴子落地"，盈利担忧利空出尽。中长期来看，随着供需格局改 善，经济企稳回升，可能将迎来需求景气拐点，上市公司的盈利也有望底部反转。港股作为全球估值洼 地，估值修复空间很大。 ⚑ 基本面与政策：弱复苏格局延续，政策强调落地执行。港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平，新旧经 济结构分化明显。中国延续更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策基调，更强调政策的落地和有效 性。产业政策聚焦"人工智能+"，国务院印发相关行动意见，新质生产力培育进入加速期。 ⚑ 流动性与估值：内外资合力 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to become a leader in the oatmeal and health food sector, with a strong outlook for future growth [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.149 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 18.07%, with a gross margin improvement of 1.07 percentage points to 43.59% [13]. - The report highlights the company's focus on product innovation and expansion into new health food categories, which is expected to drive long-term growth [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,578 million yuan - 2024: 1,896 million yuan (growth of 20.2%) - 2025: 2,314 million yuan (growth of 22.1%) - 2026: 2,748 million yuan (growth of 18.7%) - 2027: 3,196 million yuan (growth of 16.3%) [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 115 million yuan in 2023 to 279 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.0% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.52 yuan in 2023 to 1.25 yuan in 2027 [5][14]. Product and Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported the following product performance: - Pure oatmeal: 13.24% growth - Compound oatmeal: 27.56% growth - Cold oatmeal: 27.23% growth [13]. - Regional performance showed that the southern region's revenue grew by 20.14%, while the northern region's revenue grew by 13.34% [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over low-income consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on essential goods [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July, marking a 5% decrease and falling below market expectations [7]. - Retail sales data remains resilient, with July retail sales reaching $726.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [7]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly below expectations [9]. - Employment data shows a significant downward revision, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000 [14]. Macroeconomic Overview - Consumer confidence has weakened, with inflation concerns rising. The short-term inflation expectation increased from 4.5% to 4.9% [7]. - Retail sales growth is dependent on policy incentives and promotional activities, while consumer concerns about prices and unemployment persist [7]. - The CPI is influenced by declining energy prices and initial tariff effects, with core CPI reaching 3.1%, the highest this year [9]. Essential Consumption Insights - Beverage sales show marginal weakness, while tobacco data has rebounded. Alcohol and dairy sectors continue to exhibit weakness [27]. - Alcohol retail sales in June were $5.95 billion, down 3.3% year-on-year, indicating limited resilience in sales [27]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, reflecting a relatively flat performance [31]. - Tobacco shipments reached $6.05 billion in June, up 7.3% year-on-year, with a CPI increase of 6.5% [33]. Discretionary Consumption Insights - Restaurant and department store sales show marginal weakness, while clothing sales have improved [35]. - Restaurant retail sales in July were $98.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [35]. - Department store sales reached $77.39 billion in July, up 2.3% year-on-year, but still below overall retail sales growth [38]. - Clothing retail sales in July were $26.63 billion, up 5.0% year-on-year, with expectations of price increases due to tariffs [40]. Market Performance and Valuation - The discretionary consumption sector performed well, with an 8.2% increase, while the essential consumption sector declined by 1.7% [4]. - The essential consumption ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million, while the non-essential consumption ETF experienced a net outflow of $650 million [4]. - The median valuation for leading food and beverage companies in the U.S. stock market was 24x at the end of July, indicating a relatively high valuation level [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company is currently under significant pressure due to external environment changes and its own strategic impacts, with a focus on waiting for recovery in the future [2]. - The revenue and profit are under pressure in the short term, with a reported revenue of 2.752 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% [11]. - The company is expected to enhance its focus on key product categories and accelerate the launch of differentiated new products in the second half of 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.806 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 803 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant decrease of 17.8% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.59 yuan [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from sunflower seeds was 1.772 billion yuan, down 4.45% year-on-year, while nut products generated 614 million yuan, down 6.98% year-on-year [11]. - The direct sales model's revenue proportion increased from 20.51% at the end of 2024 to 28.33% in the first half of 2025 [11]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 23.37 yuan, with a target price set at 27.45 yuan [5][11]. - The market capitalization is approximately 11.822 billion yuan [6]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is projected at 14.5% [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the current price is 14.85 [12].