Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a bullish/ bearish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, same as above [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand, negative feedback in the industrial chain, and macro - environment factors. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal have support at previous lows, and silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have relatively stable demand and supply situations. External factors such as trade frictions and tariff policies need continuous attention [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. During the long holiday, terminal demand decreased significantly month - on - month and remained weak year - on - year. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly. The recovery of post - holiday demand needs further observation. With the decline of steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain keeps fermenting. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export in September remained high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of bilateral games and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly and reached a new high this year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained resilient at a high level. After the National Day, steel mills have a certain restocking demand, but the pressure of future production cuts is increasing. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is strengthening, and the market sentiment has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade [3] Coke - The coke price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level is average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre - holiday restocking, downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders is general. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction turnover decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decrease in output. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8]

Group 1 - The current price of soybean meal is critical as it approaches the key level of 3000 yuan/ton, raising questions about its stability [2] - There is a divergence between spot and futures markets, with spot prices remaining stable while futures have retreated [2][3] - The retreat in futures prices indicates a change in market expectations for future conditions, influenced by factors such as the return of U.S. soybeans to the Chinese market [3][9] Group 2 - Recent developments suggest urgency from the U.S. side regarding soybean exports to China, highlighted by Trump's social media post and the U.S. Soybean Association's call for action [6][8] - The expectation of a high yield for U.S. soybeans adds pressure for them to re-enter the Chinese market, which could alleviate supply tightness in the fourth quarter [9] - There are rumors of a potential government release of 3 million tons of soybeans, which, regardless of its truth, contributes to market sentiment affecting soybean meal prices [9][11] Group 3 - Despite the recent retreat in prices, the decline is expected to be limited due to cost support and seasonal demand increases in the fourth quarter [11] - The overall trend for soybean meal is anticipated to be a slow upward movement, with a higher likelihood of price increases compared to declines [11]