Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which has led to concerns about supply disruptions. However, recent developments indicate a potential easing of these tensions, which may impact supply expectations and pricing dynamics in the near term [1][5][8]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol prices have recently corrected after a spike driven by fears of supply chain disruptions in Iran due to escalating conflicts. The price settled at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1]. - As of June 19, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 77.44% capacity, a 2.30 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 6.61 percentage point increase year-on-year. High profits from coal-to-methanol production are encouraging operational activity [1]. - Reports indicate that Iran's methanol production facilities may restart operations following a proposed ceasefire agreement, which could significantly alter supply expectations for July imports to China [1][4]. Demand Factors - The average operating rate of domestic coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities is at 85.53%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points. Traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a focus on essential procurement [2]. - The methanol port inventory in China reached 670,500 tons as of June 25, an increase of 84,100 tons from the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of stock [2]. Market Outlook - According to various institutions, the methanol market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to oscillate within a high range due to the interplay of geopolitical factors and domestic supply-demand dynamics. Key focus areas include the pace of Iranian facility restarts and the actual growth in import volumes [4][5][6]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks, which has led to a correction in energy prices and a potential weakening of domestic methanol futures [5][6]. - The overall market logic is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions, with ongoing uncertainties in international relations affecting trading strategies [7][8].

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - **Silver**: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - **Zinc**: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - **Lead**: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - **Polysilicon**: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - **Coke**: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Pig**: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - **Stock Index**: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 26, the main contract of rebar futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since September 12, 2024, due to multiple factors including supply - demand, cost, and macro - economic environment. In the future, with lackluster off - season consumption, EAF steel mills may cut production, and the steel market is in a low - valuation area, presenting short - term long opportunities from oversold rebounds [3]. - Today, the A - share market rose and then fell. The three major indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index) closed in the red, while the CSI 1000 closed strongly in the green. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index continued to show a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6][7]. - Gold's internal and external markets broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 confirmed as the end of this wave of adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. There is resistance near a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for adjustments to buy on dips instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. - In May, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, iron ore faces large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation. Technically, it hit a new low today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [15]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [17][18]. - For PTA, the PX plant operating rate remains low, and major manufacturers like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, leading to tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, suppressing the PTA futures price. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Rebar futures price decline is due to complex supply (blast furnace production cuts but EAF restarts) and weak demand (slowdown in manufacturing investment, low real - estate sales). Cost pressure comes from falling coking coal prices and increased iron ore shipments. In the future, off - season consumption is poor, and EAF steel mills may cut production [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market was volatile today. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index maintained a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 as the end of the adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. Wait for dips to buy instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, iron ore has supply - surplus pressure due to reduced exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Technically, it hit a new low, with a bearish oscillating view [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Glass demand growth depends on real - estate policies. Currently, daily melting is low, sales have improved slightly, but inventories are high, and downstream restocking motivation is weak. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations, with a bearish oscillating view [17][18]. Technical Analysis - PTA - PX plant operating rate is low, and major manufacturers plan maintenance in May, causing tight spot circulation. Downstream polyester demand is poor, suppressing PTA prices. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to fluctuate, iron ore is expected to be weak in oscillation, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended to wait and see, nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][19][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to be weak in oscillation [1][29][30] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are recommended to be short on rallies, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline in oscillation, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][31][38] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex and volatile, with factors such as trade policies, economic data, and geopolitical issues affecting the market [5][7][11] - Different industries and varieties have different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to specific circumstances [1][5][7] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, inventory levels, and seasonal factors, and risk control should be strengthened [7][19][20] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: The U.S. trade policy and domestic policies affect the market, and it is recommended to defend during the holiday [5] - Treasury bonds: Pay attention to the official PMI data in April, and the current interest rate trading needs to pay more attention to the safety margin [5] Black building materials - Rebar: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restriction policies [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [8] - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the changes in blast furnace hot metal production and steel mill raw material inventory digestion rhythm [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The price is expected to be strong in oscillation, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,200 - 20,000 [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 122,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton [15] - Tin: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range, with the reference range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract [16] - Gold and silver: The price is expected to be in an adjustment state, and it is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions, with the reference range of 760 - 802 for the SHFE gold 06 contract and 7,800 - 8,600 for the SHFE silver 06 contract [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the intensity of domestic stimulus policies [19] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 05 contract and the inventory removal situation [20] - Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply situation after the start of tapping [21][22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 1,730 - 1,850 [24] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 2,200 - 2,350 [26] - Plastic: The price is expected to be low in oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, the subsequent impact of the Iranian port, and the tariff game [28] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short call options, and the price is expected to be weak in oscillation [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton: The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near term [29] - Apples: The price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but attention should be paid to macro risks [29][30] - PTA: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 4,200 support level [30] Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies [31][32] - Eggs: It is recommended to be short on rallies, and the 06 contract is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [33][34] - Corn: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2,400 pressure level and the 2,280 - 2,300 support level for the 07 contract [34][36] - Soybean meal: It is recommended to be short on rallies in the short term and long on dips in the long term, and attention should be paid to the 2,900 support level [36][37] - Oils: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and attention should be paid to the 7,800 - 8,000, 8,300 - 8,400, and 9,600 pressure levels [38][43]