Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, geopolitical factors bring short - term price rebounds, but the supply surplus pressure in 2026 remains the dominant factor, and significant price surges are unlikely [4] - For PX & PTA, the supply is expected to contract in January, the price trend is strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the early holiday of the terminal in early January [4] - For MEG, the price rebound is limited due to the dual - weak supply and demand and inventory reduction pressure [5] - For BZ & EB, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate widely, and the price center of styrene is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - US WTI crude oil price is stable above $58 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative increase of over 3%. Geopolitical situations such as US actions in Venezuela and Nigeria and the attack on a Russian refinery are beneficial to the market, but supply surplus in 2026 is the core driving factor [4] PX & PTA - PX domestic load is stable, with high - level operation. There are maintenance plans in January, and the processing fee continues to rise. PTA supply tightens, with strong cost support, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4] MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate decreases, the price rebounds from the bottom. The port inventory decreases but remains high. The import volume is expected to decline, and the price rebound is limited due to dual - weak supply and demand [5][18] BZ & EB - The overseas gasoline cracking spread is weak, the support for pure benzene from overseas oil blending weakens. The pure benzene port inventory accumulates, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene operating rate rebounds, and its price center is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5][27] Polyester and Terminal - The polyester industry's average operating rate is basically stable, with significant inventory reduction in polyester filament. The terminal weaving market is weak, with fewer new orders, and the production load is gradually decreasing [22] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate slightly decreases, and the styrene operating rate rebounds. The port inventories of both increase. The downstream demand shows certain resilience, and further observation is needed [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in the overall commodity market. PX is in a high - level volatile market, PTA has strong cost support, and MEG is expected to rebound due to the anticipated supply contraction under new energy consumption standards [1][2] - The outlook for PX in 2026 remains optimistic, and the narrowing spread between February and March may indicate healthy demand. However, the future PTA exports to India may decrease significantly. The supply of MEG is expected to contract due to equipment maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha remained strong at the end of the session. The PX price rose today, with the February physical goods negotiated at 829/838 and March at 833/834, but no deals were made. The PX valuation was 833.5 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars from yesterday. The geopolitical risk concerns eased, and the crude oil futures fell to near a five - year low on December 16. A Chinese broker said the weakness of crude oil may have been "priced in", and the PX outlook in 2026 is optimistic [5][6] - PTA: South Korea's PTA exports increased by 63% month - on - month to 199,793 tons in November. Exports to India doubled, but future exports to India may decline significantly due to policy changes [6] - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia advanced its maintenance plan for one line, expected to last until January 9, 2026 [7] - Polyester: Two polyester plants in Nantong plan to carry out maintenance in January and February 2026 respectively for one - month each. The nominal capacities of the plants are 250,000 tons and 160,000 tons, mainly producing dull filaments and bicomponent filaments. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Views and Suggestions - PX: The commodity market rebounded with the improvement of macro sentiment, and PX prices rose. Recently, there have been few changes in PX plants, with the domestic operating rate at 88.1% (- 0.1%). The weekly output is 740,000 tons. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to carry out over one - month maintenance on CDU and reforming in January 2026, with an expected PX load reduction of about 10%. The Asian operating rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The 400,000 - ton Idemitsu plant restarted, and the 700,000 - ton Satorp plant in the Middle East restarted, while the 550,000 - ton GS PX plant shut down. The PTA operating rate remained at 73.7%. The PXN spread continued to widen. It is recommended to operate in the range of 6550 - 7000, close the 5 - 9 bull spread, and take profit on the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [8] - PTA: The supply and demand of PX at the cost end are tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses. There may be a negative feedback in the industrial chain due to potential production cuts. Therefore, the upside space of PTA is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range of 4500 - 4800, close the 5 - 9 bull spread, and take profit on the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [9] - MEG: The market is concerned about the impact of new energy consumption standards on coal - based plants. The current price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production plants, leading to some plants' operational shutdowns. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. Low profits have led to a widespread decline in plant operating enthusiasm. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart of the 200,000 - ton Huayi plant [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PX market has limited upside potential. Although the supply is tight before the holiday, the demand is weakening, and the polyester start - up decline may bring negative feedback. The PXN is expanding, but the valuation support from the blending oil logic is weakening [3]. - The PTA market also has limited upside potential. The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester industry is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, which may lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The PTA processing fee is continuously compressed [5]. - For MEG, it is at a low - valuation level, and short - selling is not recommended. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and it is advisable to operate in the range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve shows a forward decline, and attention should be paid to the 01 - contract warehouse receipt pressure. The supply is tight, the near - end is strengthening, and the PXN is rising. The gasoline cracking spread is falling, which is negative for the blending oil market. The aromatics blending oil economy is weakening [20][26][31]. - The PX - MX spread has soared, and the Asian MX blending oil economy has significantly declined, while the overseas MX isomerization economy has increased [47][49]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The domestic PX start - up rate is at a historical high, with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian start - up rate is 78.6% (- 0.1%). There are expectations of supply contraction in the future, such as the Zhejiang Petrochemical's CDU maintenance in January [61]. - In October, the PX import volume was 830,000 tons. The import from South Korea has increased, while that from Saudi Arabia has been low [63][65]. - In November, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong accumulated 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [84]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The PTA basis and monthly spread have rebounded at a low level driven by raw materials, but the spot supply is still in surplus. The processing fee has been at a low level for a long time [90][100]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA start - up rate remains at 73.7%, with a weekly output of about 1.44 million tons. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative PTA output was 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [101][102]. - In October, the PTA export volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory holding willingness is low, and the warehouse receipt volume is continuously increasing [104][120]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The MEG monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price has reached a new low. The relative valuation has been continuously decreasing, and the profit of various production processes is in a loss state [133][137][140]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG start - up rate is 70% (- 3%), and the weekly domestic supply is about 400,000 tons. Many coal - chemical and ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads due to low profits [141][142]. - In October, the MEG import volume was 650,000 tons, and in November, it was over 720,000 tons. The overseas inventory is high, and the arrival volume remains at a high level, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory [143][152]. Polyester Segment - **Start - up** - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (- 0.6%), maintaining a high level. The start - up rate is expected to be 91% in December, 89% in January, and 84% in February [156][159]. - **Inventory** - The downstream sales are sluggish seasonally, and the inventory has begun to rise. The filament (POY/FDY) equity inventory is about half a month, the short - fiber inventory is at a low level both this year and in the same period of history, and the bottle - chip inventory has slightly increased [166][172]. - **Export** - From January to October, the total polyester export volume was 12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of various polyester products has also increased to different extents [173][176]. - **Profit** - The texturing profit is acceptable, but the FDY loss has expanded, and the POY is at the break - even point, which may affect the filament start - up enthusiasm [177]. Terminal (Weaving and Apparel) - **Demand and Start - up** - The overall demand is weakening. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 67% (- 2%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 83% (- 2%) [198]. - **Inventory and Sales** - The domestic demand orders have declined month - on - month, and the de - stocking speed of grey fabric inventory has slowed down. The new order atmosphere is weak, the shipment situation has deteriorated, and the fabric price has declined locally [201][202]. - **Retail and Export** - From January to October, the retail sales of Chinese clothing, footwear, and textiles were 106.127 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative export from January to October was 126.2 billion US dollars, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [203][209]. - Overseas, the clothing retail data in the US and Europe have risen strongly, while the overseas textile and clothing inventory has slightly declined month - on - month [213][219].

Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal continues to show weakness, reaching a new low in the current phase, with domestic coal production slightly contracting week-on-week [1] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in mining activity, while import levels remain high, leading to sufficient supply [1] - Demand from coking enterprises is declining, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm and a drop in steel production, resulting in weakened real demand for coking coal [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The photovoltaic market is experiencing an overall decline in demand, leading to increased sales pressure across various segments and early shutdowns for some companies [2] - The polysilicon inventory continues to rise, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - Despite a reduction in production across the supply chain, the weak demand is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation [2] Group 3: Rebar Market - The rebar market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production from steel mills, with a slight decline in apparent consumption [3] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the overall supply-demand situation remains weak, with cost support for steel products lacking [3] - Recent declines in raw material prices have improved profitability for some steel mills, leading to expectations of increased rebar production in the future [3]

Market Trends - On December 8, coking coal and coke prices continued to decline sharply, with coking coal main contract falling below 1100 yuan/ton and coke contract dropping over 6% [1][2] - Since November, coking coal has shifted from a leading performer to a significant underperformer, with a monthly decline of 17% and coke down 11% [1][2] Reasons for Price Drop - The first reason for the decline is the weakening of the spot market, with prices dropping across nearly all coal types and a high auction failure rate of 30-50%, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [10][12] - The second reason is the pressure from futures contracts nearing delivery, particularly the coking coal 2601 contract, which is expected to have a delivery volume of around 200,000 tons, leading to concerns about the profitability of accepting delivery [13][15] - The third reason is the negative feedback from the steel industry, where reduced profits have led to production cuts, thereby decreasing demand for coking coal [16][17] Import Impact - There has been a significant increase in imports of Mongolian coal, with the goal of reaching 100 million tons annually, which has pressured domestic coking coal prices [19][20] - The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has dropped from 1170 yuan/ton to 988 yuan/ton, a decline of over 15% [20][21] Inventory Levels - Coking coal inventories at washing plants are at 321.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.09 million tons, while coal mine inventories are at 247.01 million tons, up 23.09 million tons [22] - Coking enterprises have inventories of 1009.20 million tons, showing a slight decrease, while steel mills hold 798.27 million tons, reflecting a mixed inventory situation [27] Market Outlook - Analysts from Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggest that the recent decline in coal and coke prices is closely related to increased supply from Mongolia and reduced demand due to seasonal maintenance in steel mills [29] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the downward pressure on prices is expected to continue in the short term due to increased imports and reduced steel production [30] - Zhongxin Jiantou Futures notes that the core factor suppressing coking coal prices is the expectation of a relaxed supply, with domestic production remaining high and imports increasing [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - **Logic**: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - **View**: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - **View**: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - **View**: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability**: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - **Coke Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - **Import/Production**: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - **Steel Mill Purchase Price**: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is "shockingly weak" [1]. - The investment rating for PVC is "low - level shock" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report Caustic Soda - High production and high inventory patterns continue, and the market keeps shorting chlor - alkali profits. The impact of alumina's production increase and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. Long - term alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industry chain [5]. - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. With limited cost support and no production cuts by manufacturers, it's difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [5]. PVC - The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change in the short term. Although the futures price has reached a historical low and some devices may reduce production, the high - start and weak - demand pattern persists before the 03 contract. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The load in North and Northeast China has increased, while that in East, Central, and Southwest China has decreased due to device maintenance and production cuts [5]. - Demand: The alumina industry is likely to reduce production, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. Export orders are few, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Valuation is suppressed, and high - production pressure persists in winter. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [5]. PVC - Supply: The high - production structure is hard to change in the short term. The 2026 spring and summer maintenance may be stronger than this year [7]. - Demand: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition, and domestic demand related to real estate is weak [7]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Low - level shock, stop losses on short positions, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at 4,600 and the lower support at 4,400. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, while the 1 - 5 month spread is weak [10]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda from January to September is 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.29%. It's expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year in 2025, exceeding 4 million tons [14][18]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia is continuously falling, currently at $380 per dry ton [19]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is decreasing, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is declining. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [25][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory, being weak. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65% [37][38][40]. - Maintenance will significantly decrease after November. In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43][45]. - In November, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong has increased, raising caustic soda costs. Liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, so the cost support for caustic soda is limited [46][50]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the production and profit of propylene oxide have recovered, the production of epichlorohydrin has recovered while the profit has declined, and the production of dichloromethane and chloroform has declined while the profit has recovered [53][57][62]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity has expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity in the first quarter is relatively concentrated, with an expected annual increase of 13.9 million tons [66][68]. - Alumina's production, inventory, and profit are showing a downward trend, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The alumina industry has a negative feedback effect on caustic soda, and the high - profit hoarding of caustic soda in late 2024 is hard to replicate [70][76]. - The pulp industry's production capacity is expanding, and the demand is in the peak season, but the terminal profit is being compressed. The production capacity of the finished paper industry is stable, and the production of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry are stable. The production of the water treatment industry is stable, and the production of the ternary precursor industry is increasing [83][90][94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [104]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate has increased month - on - month. In November 2025, maintenance has decreased. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026 [110][114][115]. - The profit of the northwest integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, weakening the impact of profit on supply [117]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up rate of the PVC downstream has decreased month - on - month [121][126][132]. - From January to September, the cumulative export volume is 2.9216 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 50.63%. India is still the most important export destination. The number of PVC warehouse receipts is continuously increasing [139][140].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit [3] - The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other, and the supply pressure in the domestic market increases [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production - cut expectation, and the cost support is limited, making it difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [3] - In the long term, the alumina production - cut problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2291, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2375, and the basis was 84 [1] Spot News - On November 17, due to poor unloading of alumina, the main downstream product in Shandong, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda was reduced by 10 yuan to 720 yuan, and the transaction prices in cities across Shandong followed the decline, with a relatively large drop in the southwestern Shandong market due to high inventory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory situation of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting chlor - alkali profit [3] - From the demand side, the impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda offsets each other. In winter, there is limited supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling under high - operation conditions. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production - cut expectations, cost support is limited, and without production cuts by manufacturers, it's hard for caustic soda to rebound significantly. In the long run, alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **螺纹**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **热卷**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **铁矿**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦炭**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦煤**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **锰硅**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **硅铁**: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given rating rules, but presumably implies a certain bullish tendency [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material market is complex, with prices mostly in a volatile state. Demand expectations are generally pessimistic, but policy easing provides some support. Each variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and market participants need to pay attention to factors such as environmental restrictions, production changes, and macro - level events [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market showed a slight rebound in volatility. This week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased slightly, production declined simultaneously, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation pace slowed down. Iron - making water production increased, but downstream acceptance capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, there is still downward pressure in the later stage. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. From the October data, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels. Demand expectations are still pessimistic, but policy easing still provides some support to the futures market. In the short term, it may continue the volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market trends and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market was volatile, and the basis was relatively high recently. On the supply side, global shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine was officially put into production, but the short - term production capacity that could be released was limited. The domestic arrival volume was at a high level for the same period, and port inventory continued to increase. There was some structural movement in Australian ore inventory. On the demand side, steel demand declined in the off - season, the loss situation of steel mills intensified, and although iron - making water production rebounded this week, there was still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, several important events had been implemented, and the short - term impact on the futures market weakened. The market began to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore market, and it is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The intraday coke price was volatile. The fourth round of coking price adjustments was fully implemented this week. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers made small - scale purchases as needed, and inventory decreased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price may mainly fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price was volatile. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas, and attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a discount to Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal - producing areas, and the price may mainly fluctuate [6] Silicon Manganese - The intraday silicon manganese price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a high level, and silicon manganese inventory increased slowly. The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly compared with the previous period. The price of spot manganese ore changed quickly with the fluctuations of the futures market and increased this week [7] Silicon Iron - The intraday silicon iron price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased compared with the previous period, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand remained resilient. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. The increase in electricity costs and the price of blue charcoal led to a certain sentiment of a bottom - bouncing rebound in silicon iron, and it is judged that the price is more likely to rise than to fall [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern in the short term, with the demand outlook remaining pessimistic but the downside supported by moderately loose macro policies [2]. - Iron ore is predicted to oscillate mainly, as the market starts to trade the reality of a marginally looser fundamental situation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to show a moderately strong oscillatory trend, given the ample supply of carbon elements and the weakening downstream demand [4][5]. - Silicomanganese has strong support at the price bottom, despite the continuous decline in hot metal production and the slow accumulation of inventory [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall, considering the cost increase and the resilient overall demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market was mainly oscillatory, with thread steel slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil [2]. - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased slightly, production declined synchronously, and inventory continued to fall [2]. - The demand for hot-rolled coil stabilized, production continued to decline, and the pace of inventory accumulation slowed down [2]. - Hot metal production dropped from its high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb the output was insufficient [2]. - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall [2]. - Steel exports declined from their high level, and the overall domestic demand remained weak [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis has been relatively high recently [3]. - Globally, iron ore shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year, and the Simandou extension mine officially started production, but the short-term production capacity was limited [3]. - The domestic arrival volume remained at a high level for the same period, port inventory continued to increase, and there were some structural changes in Australian ore inventory [3]. - In the off-season, steel demand declined, steel mills' losses intensified, and there was room for further reduction in hot metal production [3]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated during the day, and the downstream's acceptance of the fourth round of price increases was poor [4]. - Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly [4]. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream buyers purchasing on a small scale as needed [4]. - Traders' purchasing willingness was average [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated during the day, and the daily import volume from Mongolia remained high [5]. - The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices [5]. - Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared to the previous period [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated during the day, and the first-round inquiry price from a large steel mill in the north was 5,750 yuan/ton, compared with the October tender price of 5,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Hot metal production continued to decline, and the weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [6]. - Silicomanganese inventory was slowly accumulating, and the Comilog's forward manganese ore quotation increased slightly compared to the previous period [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day, and hot metal production continued to decline [7]. - Export demand rose to around 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7]. - The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall demand remaining resilient [7]. - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].