黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-20 成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 风险 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹本 周产量较上周有所上升，库存、需求略微下降；热卷产量和消费上升，库存小幅下降。昨日，全国建材成交9.01 万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求维持韧性，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累 ...

钢材：市场情绪谨慎，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2990元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3104元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，昨 日全国钢材城市库存369.11万吨，环比减少3.59%；热卷库存169.6万吨，环比减少3.09%，全国建材成交11.02万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-17 市场情绪谨慎，钢价震荡运行 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：全球发运回落，铁矿窄幅震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格窄幅震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于704.5元/吨，涨幅0.21%。 现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一 ...

Market Performance Review - A-shares experienced a significant rise after the holiday but shifted to a volatile phase, with major indices showing mixed performance, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose by 3.27% [12] - The leading sectors included defense, telecommunications, electric power equipment, and banking, influenced by geopolitical events and international trade policies [13] A-share Sentiment Recovery Needs Catalysts - The sentiment among A-share investors has notably declined, with a strong correlation between market movements and investor sentiment since the rally began on September 24, 2024 [17][21] - The financing capital, which reflects investor sentiment, has seen a significant outflow since April, indicating reduced trading enthusiasm [20][21] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade talks are critical; if they indicate a continuation of trade tensions, it may further depress market sentiment [32] Policy Impact on Market Sentiment - The ability to boost A-share investor sentiment will largely depend on policy developments, particularly related to domestic demand stimulus measures [35] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting's policy expectations have not materialized, necessitating clear stimulus policies to catalyze market recovery [37] Dividend Stock Valuation Enhancement - The potential for further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts enhances the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, railways, and electric power [5][33] - The current environment suggests that dividend stocks may offer better value compared to other asset classes, especially as the market anticipates further monetary easing [34] Future Market Outlook - The recovery of A-share sentiment is contingent on the timing of domestic demand stimulus policies, with current macroeconomic data showing signs of weakness [35][28] - The first quarter earnings reports have not provided significant positive surprises, with only 21.78% of companies exceeding expectations, which is below historical averages [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the consumer sector, particularly the Consumption ETF (159928), which has seen a notable increase in trading volume and net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Consumption ETF (159928) rose by 0.96% during trading, with a transaction volume exceeding 630 million yuan and a net subscription of 236 million units [1][3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has attracted over 160 million yuan in net inflows, and in the last 60 days, it has accumulated nearly 1.3 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Major stocks within the Consumption ETF have shown positive performance, with North China Grain increasing by the daily limit for three consecutive days, and other companies like Haida Group and Huaxi Biological also seeing significant gains [3]. - Muyuan Foods announced an expected net profit of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 245.9 million yuan in the same period last year, attributed to increased pig sales and lower costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector is seen as a rigid support for domestic demand, with a consensus on the necessity to stimulate domestic consumption amid U.S. tariff impacts [3][4]. - Historical data from the 2018 trade friction indicates that the food and beverage sector demonstrated defensive characteristics, with lower declines compared to other sectors during market downturns [4]. - The current valuation of the food and beverage industry is approximately 22 times earnings, which is at a historical low compared to an average of 32 times in 2018 [4][6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, stable companies with high dividend yields, and sectors with profit elasticity such as the restaurant supply chain [5]. - The top ten stocks in the Consumption ETF account for 67% of the index, with leading positions held by major liquor brands and pig farming companies [8].