Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant currently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1]. - Iron ore prices are fluctuating. The supply of iron ore is generally recovering, and its consumption maintains resilience. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and future attention should be paid to the iron water output and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal and coke prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern has not changed significantly [6]. - The supply - demand structure of thermal coal has improved, and the coal price has rebounded slightly. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to continue to rise, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 2986 yuan/ton and 3103 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar production has increased, while inventory and demand have slightly decreased. Hot - rolled coil production and consumption have increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The daily national building materials trading volume is 9.01 million tons. The off - season weak demand suppresses rebar prices, while hot - rolled coils show strong resilience, and short - term exports remain high [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuates. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 242.18 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate is 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal fluctuate within a range. Coke production is restricted, and inventory has decreased significantly. Coking coal supply has tightened, and the inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased. Downstream coking enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The expected output at the mine mouth is shrinking, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price of low - calorie coal has increased significantly, and the price of high - calorie imported coal is firm. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to rebound, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [8][9] Core Views - Steel market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices are oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant currently, and future focus is on Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is in the shipping peak season, with an overall supply recovery trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the molten iron output in the off - season and inventory changes [3] - Coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating. Although the supply - demand relationship has improved to some extent, the long - term supply is still loose, and the price rebound is restricted [5][6] - Thermal coal prices lack demand support in the short - term, and the supply is loose in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,104 yuan/ton. The national steel city inventory was 3.6911 million tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 1.696 million tons, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. The national building materials transaction volume was 110,200 tons. Rebar is in the consumption off - season, and weak demand will suppress prices. Hot - rolled coil has better profits and stronger production and sales resilience, but there are concerns about future consumption after the export rush fades [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated narrowly. The main 2509 contract closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 973,000 tons, a 21.47% week - on - week increase; the forward spot trading volume was 870,000 tons, a 7.45% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly to 33.53 million tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 23.845 million tons, an 8.6% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1,371 yuan, up 1.90%; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 2.84%. The imported Mongolian coal spot price was weaker than the futures price. Coke supply is decreasing due to narrowing profits and environmental policies, and there is a price cut expectation. Coking coal supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing [5][6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In May, the industrial raw coal output was 4 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. In Shanxi, environmental inspections have been upgraded, and the estimated production suspension capacity is about 10.5 million tons. The market demand is average, and the price is in a stalemate. The port market trading is sluggish, and the downstream demand is poor. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, while the low - calorie price is falling [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

Market Performance Review - A-shares experienced a significant rise after the holiday but shifted to a volatile phase, with major indices showing mixed performance, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose by 3.27% [12] - The leading sectors included defense, telecommunications, electric power equipment, and banking, influenced by geopolitical events and international trade policies [13] A-share Sentiment Recovery Needs Catalysts - The sentiment among A-share investors has notably declined, with a strong correlation between market movements and investor sentiment since the rally began on September 24, 2024 [17][21] - The financing capital, which reflects investor sentiment, has seen a significant outflow since April, indicating reduced trading enthusiasm [20][21] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade talks are critical; if they indicate a continuation of trade tensions, it may further depress market sentiment [32] Policy Impact on Market Sentiment - The ability to boost A-share investor sentiment will largely depend on policy developments, particularly related to domestic demand stimulus measures [35] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting's policy expectations have not materialized, necessitating clear stimulus policies to catalyze market recovery [37] Dividend Stock Valuation Enhancement - The potential for further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts enhances the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, railways, and electric power [5][33] - The current environment suggests that dividend stocks may offer better value compared to other asset classes, especially as the market anticipates further monetary easing [34] Future Market Outlook - The recovery of A-share sentiment is contingent on the timing of domestic demand stimulus policies, with current macroeconomic data showing signs of weakness [35][28] - The first quarter earnings reports have not provided significant positive surprises, with only 21.78% of companies exceeding expectations, which is below historical averages [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the consumer sector, particularly the Consumption ETF (159928), which has seen a notable increase in trading volume and net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Consumption ETF (159928) rose by 0.96% during trading, with a transaction volume exceeding 630 million yuan and a net subscription of 236 million units [1][3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has attracted over 160 million yuan in net inflows, and in the last 60 days, it has accumulated nearly 1.3 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Major stocks within the Consumption ETF have shown positive performance, with North China Grain increasing by the daily limit for three consecutive days, and other companies like Haida Group and Huaxi Biological also seeing significant gains [3]. - Muyuan Foods announced an expected net profit of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 245.9 million yuan in the same period last year, attributed to increased pig sales and lower costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector is seen as a rigid support for domestic demand, with a consensus on the necessity to stimulate domestic consumption amid U.S. tariff impacts [3][4]. - Historical data from the 2018 trade friction indicates that the food and beverage sector demonstrated defensive characteristics, with lower declines compared to other sectors during market downturns [4]. - The current valuation of the food and beverage industry is approximately 22 times earnings, which is at a historical low compared to an average of 32 times in 2018 [4][6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, stable companies with high dividend yields, and sectors with profit elasticity such as the restaurant supply chain [5]. - The top ten stocks in the Consumption ETF account for 67% of the index, with leading positions held by major liquor brands and pig farming companies [8].