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广发证券:7月经济数据边际放缓的两个源头
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-08-15 10:00
Core Viewpoint - July economic data shows signs of slowdown, with only exports accelerating while industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real estate sales all underperformed compared to previous values, indicating a divergence in internal and external demand [1][6]. Economic Data Summary - Actual GDP index estimated to be approximately 5.02% year-on-year based on industrial value added and service production index, and about 4.79% when estimated using industrial value added and retail sales [1][6]. - Exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9% [6]. - Industrial value added grew by 5.7%, down from 6.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of 0.38% [1][7]. - Service production index rose by 5.8%, lower than the previous 6.0% [6]. - Retail sales (社零) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of -0.14% [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, down from 2.8%, with a single-month year-on-year decline of -5.2% [3][13]. - Real estate sales decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 5.4% [4][15]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the industrial sector, coal production growth saw a significant decline, while new industry products like smartphones and robots also experienced a slowdown [7][8]. - Retail sectors such as dining and tobacco continue to show low growth, with automotive sales turning negative for the first time in five months [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all showed notable declines, with real estate investment down by 17.2% year-on-year [3][15]. - Real estate data indicates a continued slowdown in sales, new construction, and investment, with significant declines in various metrics [4][15][16]. Policy and Market Outlook - The overall economic indicators suggest the emergence of a "slowdown zone," which aligns with market expectations [5][18]. - Recent macroeconomic policies are focused on supporting service consumption, particularly through interest subsidies for personal and business loans [5][18]. - The continuation of "two重" policies and real estate policies is deemed crucial for stabilizing the economy [5][18].
【广发宏观郭磊】7月经济数据边际放缓的两个源头
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-15 07:00
广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一, 7月经济数据呈现一定的放缓特征。六大口径中只有出口加速,工业、服务业、消费、投资、地产销 售单月同比均低于前值,即内外需分化出现。按照工业增加值和服务业生产指数估算的实际GDP指数同比约 为5.02%,按照工业增加值和社零估算约为4.79%,均不同程度低于二季度。 第二, 工业增加值同比5.7%,低于前值的6.8%。环比季调0.38%,年内仅高于4月关税冲击时。从主要产 品产量来看,原煤产量增速降幅较大。新产业产品中,智能手机、机器人增速有所下降;集成电路、发电设备 增速依然在高位。"反内卷"相关行业产量较为分化,太阳能电池产量增速有所下降;汽车、水泥等领域变化 不大;和直觉不太一致的是,粗钢、钢材产量增速均略高于前值。不过整体来看,工业企业产销率有所上行, 7月单月属年内次高,即等量的需求下工业供给更低,初步显示出"反内卷"改善即期供需关系的效果。 第三, 社零同比3.7%,低于前值的4.8%,环比季调为-0.14%。从主要部类来看,拖累力量一是餐饮和烟 酒,增速依旧较低,属于延续6月的趋势;二是汽车,五个月以来同比首次转负,可能和 ...