Core Viewpoint - July economic data shows signs of slowdown, with only exports accelerating while industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real estate sales all underperformed compared to previous values, indicating a divergence in internal and external demand [1][6]. Economic Data Summary - Actual GDP index estimated to be approximately 5.02% year-on-year based on industrial value added and service production index, and about 4.79% when estimated using industrial value added and retail sales [1][6]. - Exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9% [6]. - Industrial value added grew by 5.7%, down from 6.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of 0.38% [1][7]. - Service production index rose by 5.8%, lower than the previous 6.0% [6]. - Retail sales (社零) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonal adjustment of -0.14% [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, down from 2.8%, with a single-month year-on-year decline of -5.2% [3][13]. - Real estate sales decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 5.4% [4][15]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the industrial sector, coal production growth saw a significant decline, while new industry products like smartphones and robots also experienced a slowdown [7][8]. - Retail sectors such as dining and tobacco continue to show low growth, with automotive sales turning negative for the first time in five months [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all showed notable declines, with real estate investment down by 17.2% year-on-year [3][15]. - Real estate data indicates a continued slowdown in sales, new construction, and investment, with significant declines in various metrics [4][15][16]. Policy and Market Outlook - The overall economic indicators suggest the emergence of a "slowdown zone," which aligns with market expectations [5][18]. - Recent macroeconomic policies are focused on supporting service consumption, particularly through interest subsidies for personal and business loans [5][18]. - The continuation of "two重" policies and real estate policies is deemed crucial for stabilizing the economy [5][18].

Economic Overview - July economic data shows signs of slowdown, with only exports accelerating while industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real estate sales all underperformed compared to previous values, indicating a divergence in internal and external demand [1][6] - The actual GDP index estimated from industrial value added and service production index year-on-year is approximately 5.02%, while the estimate based on industrial value added and retail sales is about 4.79%, both lower than the second quarter [1][6] Industrial Performance - Industrial value added year-on-year growth is 5.7%, down from 6.8% previously, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase of 0.38%, only higher than April's tariff impact [7][9] - Major product output shows significant declines in coal production growth, while new industry products like smartphones and robots also saw decreased growth rates; however, integrated circuits and power generation equipment remain at high growth levels [9][10] - The industrial enterprise sales rate increased to 97.1%, the second highest this year, indicating improved supply-demand relationships despite lower industrial supply [11] Consumer Spending - Retail sales year-on-year growth is 3.7%, down from 4.8%, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted decline of 0.14% [12][13] - Key sectors dragging down retail performance include dining and tobacco, as well as automotive sales, which turned negative for the first time in five months, likely due to price competition constraints [12][13] - Growth in household appliances and mobile phones remains high, but cumulative growth has slowed compared to the first half of the year, influenced by the gradual release of demand and lower national subsidy fund balances [12][13] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is 1.6%, down from 2.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 5.2% [13][14] - Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showed significant month-on-month declines, with manufacturing attributed to high equipment renewal funding released in the first half of the year [13][14] - Infrastructure investment's unexpected decline may be due to weather disturbances and the timing of new project approvals and financial tools, with local investment showing reduced activity [13][14] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continues to slow, with declines in sales, new starts, construction, investment, and funding availability [16][17] - The average price of new and second-hand homes in 70 cities showed slight month-on-month declines of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating limited changes from trend values [16][17] - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing aim to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that further policy support may be necessary to prevent continued declines [16][17] Overall Economic Sentiment - July's soft data, including PMI and BCI, along with credit and economic data, indicate a consistent trend of slowdown, aligning with the previously mentioned "deceleration zone" [5][18] - Ongoing macroeconomic policies are emerging, particularly focused on supporting service consumption, which is expected to gradually bolster consumer spending [5][18] - Local investment and real estate are identified as key sources of the overall data slowdown, with effective investment being a crucial part of terminal demand [5][18]