丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会。政策针对 每笔 1 万元以内的逾期金额，精准聚焦小额逾期、诚信还款的客群。对于个人而言，政策激励 目前逾期的客群尽快还款，对于历史上有逾期记录但已经结清欠款的客群，有利于未来正常新 增贷款的审批。不过，与个人破产制度不同，信用修复的核心前提是全额偿还累计欠款。对于 银行而言，可能加快逾期客户还款，改善资产质量预期，并小幅增加零售贷款投放。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ [Table_Summary2] 央行首发信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行发布关于实施"一次性信用修复政策"有关安排的通知，并举行新闻发布会介绍有关情况。政策明确，为支持信用受损但积极还款 的个人高效便捷重塑信用，2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日期间单笔不超 1 万元的逾期信息，若 2026 年 3 月 31 日前足额还款，征信系统将不予展 示，且实行 "免申即享" 无需个人申请。 信用修复不收取费用 通知明确，一次性信用修复政策实行"免申即享"，个人无需申请和操作，也无需提交证明材料，由中国人民银行征信系统对符合条件的逾期信息进行自动 识别和统一处理。值得注意的是，此次政策不区分个人经营贷、房贷、消费贷、信用卡等业务类型，只要符合适用条件，都能获得信用修复。在贷款机构 方面，政策也不区分银行、小贷、消费金融公司等，包括京东白条、花呗、借呗以及助贷机构的逾期贷款，只要接入央行征信系统的机构均可纳入政策范 围。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a stable yet slightly slowing economy[3] - Social retail sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to GDP growth[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%, outperforming total investment growth by 4.5 percentage points, with high-tech industries showing significant investment increases[3] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation concerns have eased, with the CPI rising to 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, and the PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%[4] - Core CPI has shown a strong recovery, increasing to 1.2% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - The report indicates a need for coordinated macro policies to promote reasonable price recovery amid various influencing factors[4] Global Economic Concerns - The report expresses heightened concerns about the cooling labor market in overseas economies, contrasting with previous assessments of strong labor markets in developed economies[5] - In September 2025, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.0%, below expectations, influenced by declines in housing and used car prices, while other major economies also reported high inflation rates[5] - The report notes a significant drop in U.S. non-farm employment growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, compared to 71,000 in the same month last year[5] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, reflecting a shift from observation to active policy implementation[7] - The central bank has resumed buying government bonds, with a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, indicating a potential increase in monetary easing[9] - The focus on credit policy remains on optimizing structure and supporting key areas, with new measures to assist personal credit recovery expected to be implemented by early 2026[10] Currency Stability - Concerns regarding the RMB exchange rate have diminished, with the report suggesting that the current level is acceptable to the central bank, focusing on the positive impact of exchange rate stability on the economy[11] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate to support foreign trade and cross-border capital flows[11]