Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market experienced fluctuations in Q3 2025, initially supported by costs and fundamentals, but later declined due to external market influences and unexpected news. The outlook for Q4 suggests a potential for stronger soybean oil prices due to tightening supply and ongoing supportive factors in the domestic and international vegetable oil markets [1][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the price of domestic first-grade soybean oil first rose and then fell, reaching a low of 8069 CNY/ton on July 7 and a high of 8730 CNY/ton on August 13. The average price for the quarter was 8428 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.08% increase from the previous quarter and a 7.30% increase year-on-year [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics in Q3 showed an increase in both supply and demand for soybean oil, but the growth in inventory limited the price increase [1][5]. Group 2: Import Costs and Supply - The increase in soybean import costs was a significant factor supporting soybean oil prices in Q3. The cost of imported soybeans rose to 4130 CNY/ton, up 6.63% quarter-on-quarter and 3.92% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for Brazilian soybeans amid ongoing trade issues [3]. - The volume of soybean imports increased, with China importing 8618 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%. The average operating rate of key domestic crushing enterprises was 67%, up 11 percentage points from the previous quarter, resulting in a soybean oil output of 527 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.56% [3]. Group 3: Demand and Inventory - Domestic demand for soybean oil saw limited growth in Q3, with total consumption reaching 497 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.18%. However, the increase in production led to a significant rise in inventory, with port soybean oil stocks reaching 122 million tons, up 41.86% from the previous quarter [5]. - The demand situation was influenced by seasonal factors and market uncertainties, leading to increased purchasing activity from downstream customers ahead of traditional holidays, despite a weaker restaurant industry impacting overall demand [5]. Group 4: External Market Influences - By the end of Q3, external market prices for soybean oil declined, with CBOT soybean oil dropping to 49.44 cents/pound, a decrease of 12.85% from its quarterly high, and Malaysian palm oil prices falling by 4.58% [7]. - Looking ahead to Q4, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to decline, and domestic oil mill operating rates are anticipated to decrease, tightening soybean oil supply. However, seasonal reductions in consumption are also expected [7]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The biodiesel policy remains a significant factor influencing the vegetable oil market, with expectations of increased demand supporting both domestic and international vegetable oil markets despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. biodiesel policy implementation [7]. - Overall, the soybean oil market is expected to experience a strong performance in Q4, with prices projected to range between 8300 and 8700 CNY/ton, supported by fundamental supply-demand factors and international market influences [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report predicts a short - term rebound for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, although the short - term supply in China is sufficient and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on prices, the Sino - US trade issue limits the continuous decline space. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows soybean meal, with trade policies and high inventory leading to a mixed situation of long and short factors [1][4]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to have short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a positive consumption outlook due to Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies and the procurement demand from China and India in September, but the frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and the many short - term factors in the US soybean oil market may suppress its performance this month. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy changes and the approaching US soybean harvest, while the domestic double - festival stocking demand provides some support [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate bullishly. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the double - festival demand support its high - level and strong - oscillating price, but the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, red dates, and live pigs are rated as cautiously bearish. For cotton, the increasing supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the poor export demand of US cotton, and the high level of unpriced buy orders suppress the price, with a possible short - term rebound due to potential new - cotton rush - buying. Red dates may face pressure after the new fruit is launched, with possible large price fluctuations before November. Live pigs' spot prices are under pressure from high - volume supply, and the market lacks clear positive factors in capacity regulation [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3031.71 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 165.2295 yuan/ton, up 20.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.686 million tons, up 25,000 tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.332 million tons, up 15,000 tons (0.21%) from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 28,200 tons (2.48%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 191.067 yuan/ton, up 67.23 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 74,000 tons, down 27,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, down 500 tons from last week [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9345 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 641,500 tons, up 22,200 tons (3.58%) from last week. The export data of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 showed different trends in different reports [7][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.33% to 13720 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped by 0.24% to 15293 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract fell by 0.90% to 66.30 cents/pound [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the international market, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest and supply period. In the domestic market, new cotton is about to be launched, the demand is weak, and the export of textile and clothing in August decreased year - on - year [10][11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Information**: The red date main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.47% to 10670 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The estimated new - season production is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.47% to 12825 yuan/ton, and the latest spot price increased slightly by 0.23% to 12940 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned出栏量 in September is expected to increase. In the medium - term, the出栏量 is expected to grow until the first quarter of 2026. The demand is expected to gradually show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [17].