中美贸易问题还在谈判，美国为何突然变脸呢？特朗普升级打法，中国会用什么方式回应呢？ 在全球180多个与美国有贸易联系的国家中，唯有中国一个能够迫使特朗普在关税问题上高悬"免战牌"。现如今，中美在关税问题上虽说处于某种程度的休 战状态，但双方想要达成令彼此都满意的贸易协议， 仍然遥遥无期，这无疑进一步增加中美两国在贸易问题上的不确定性，并随时都有可能导致关税战火 重燃。至少，在双方达成协议之前，美国的挑衅性动作是不会停止的。果不其然，美国又变脸了，这是怎么回事呢？ 当然，特朗普升级打法，无非还是半导体和人工智能那几张牌，这对其他国家可能还有些效果，但用来对付中国，结果有可能是在朝着自己大腿开枪。毕 竟，中国既然敢于在几乎所有领域上跟美国正面刚，那就是因为手里头已经有了美国有关产品的替代品。对此，美方这套"连坐"封杀的操作，未必能够遏制 中国的芯片制造和人工智能雄心。与此同时，特朗普政府升级对华制裁措施，在伤害别人的同时，也必将伤害美国自己的产业链。因为这意味着，美国的供 应商需要花更多的时间和成本适应特朗普政府的制裁政策，更重要的是，他们还要承担失去中国市场的风险。毕竟，面对挑衅，中方已预告反击战！ 实际上，中 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待，隔夜豆粕 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 低开下行。短线有回撤 2930 元方向确认支持的可能。节前看多操作需谨慎对待。 | | | | 基本面偏弱。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | ★ | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | | | ...

1 豆粕：美豆渐进成熟收获 价格承压调整 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3014 | 2993 | 21 | 0. 70% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3031. 71 | 3025. 43 | 6. 28 | 0. 21% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2950 | 2950 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 間趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287. 5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2257.5 | 2251.25 | 6.25 | 0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3750 | 3750 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库 | | 豆粕 | | 存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。本周豆粕库存环比增加，美豆优良率环比调减， | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 昨日豆粕收跌，短期偏空承压走势，但由于中美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌 | | | | 空间暂有限，暂以大区间行情对待。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | ★ | | 美豆油端近期承压较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。关注逢低短多机会。关注马棕榈 ...

Group 1 - The impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with service sector PMI falling short of expectations and several sub-indices deteriorating rapidly [1] - Although imports have sharply decreased, leading to a reduction in the US trade deficit, consumer spending has noticeably weakened [1] - The market has raised the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September to nearly 90%, despite PMI remaining above 50, which does not provide sufficient justification for an immediate rate cut [1] Group 2 - In the short term, market liquidity is deemed more critical than fundamentals for driving market performance, as evidenced by the rising stock market despite declining GDP growth since 2011 [1] - The continuous influx of capital from the north to the south is expected to lead to new highs in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year, following historical trends [1] - Both Hong Kong and A-share markets present numerous investment opportunities, with Hong Kong benefiting from abundant liquidity and potential synchronized rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - A-share sectors such as infrastructure, Apple supply chain, Tesla supply chain, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 are performing well and are not available in the Hong Kong market [2] - The challenges faced in the current anti-involution measures are more significant than previous efforts, with upstream industries experiencing prolonged deflation that is affecting downstream sectors [2] - The worst outcomes of the US-China trade war are believed to be behind, although negative headlines may still cause short-term market fluctuations [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. If inventory accumulation exceeds expectations in August - September or purchases from China and India remain poor, it may be seasonally short - allocated. Strategies like expanding the rapeseed - palm oil spread and reverse - arbitrage between September and January contracts are recommended. However, there are potential bullish factors in the second half of the year, and it's advisable to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [2][5]. - Soybean oil also has a pattern of weak current situation and strong future prospects. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis. There are opportunities to go long on soybean oil in the fourth quarter, while observing changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Positive news about US biodiesel obligations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, leading to a 4.86% weekly increase in the palm oil 09 contract [1]. - Soybean oil: The same positive factors in the US biodiesel policy and Middle East situation affected US soybeans and US soybean oil directly, resulting in a 4.75% weekly rise in the soybean oil 09 contract [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Production: June rainfall forecasts indicate continued dryness in Malaysia. Conservatively estimated, production may remain flat or slightly decrease to 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. The annual production in Malaysia in 2025 is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production than last year from July - August [2]. - Export and inventory: Export from the producing areas remains strong, with ITS reporting a 14.31% increase in exports in the first 20 days of June. India's palm oil imports in June may exceed 900,000 tons, leading to a strong expectation of inventory reduction in Malaysia in June [2]. - Market impact: The US biodiesel policy is positive. In the 2025/2026 season, about 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply will be withdrawn from the international market, causing a potential upward trend in the international oil market. There are differences in market expectations for palm oil production this year. If good yields are maintained from July - August, there may be significant inventory accumulation pressure from August - September [2]. Soybean oil - International market: The EPA significantly increased the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for biomass diesel in 2026, reversing market expectations. The price of US soybean oil has room to rise further. In the 2025/2026 season, the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by at least 1.5 million tons to 6.93 million tons, and the expected consumption in 2026 is over 10 million tons [3][4]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly due to high crushing rates, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 8,170 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,600 yuan/ton, a low of 8,140 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,536 yuan/ton, with a 4.86% increase [7]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 7,788 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,198 yuan/ton, a low of 7,780 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,156 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 9,324 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,750 yuan/ton, a low of 9,295 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,726 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% increase [7]. - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 4,035 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,144 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,034 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, with a 4.79% increase [7]. - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 52.55 cents/pound, reached a high of 56.47 cents/pound, a low of 52.55 cents/pound, and closed at 55.04 cents/pound, with a 7.52% increase [7]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline month - on - month, and inventory may decrease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise rapidly in the second quarter [9][11]. - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase compared to the same period last month [11]. - Price spread: The POGO spread is declining, indicating pressure on palm oil fundamentals. The Indian soybean - palm oil CNF spread is rising [11][12]. - Import: The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2025 have decreased by 270,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils have decreased by 540,000 tons [12].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about a potential severe recession in the U.S. economy, despite recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China [1] Economic Outlook - Dimon indicated that the possibility of a recession remains high, although JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli reported that the likelihood is currently below 50% [1] - The recent agreement between the U.S. and China involves a significant reduction of tariffs for 90 days, alongside a suspension of tariffs on various goods from other countries [1] Tariff Impact - Dimon noted that even with the recent tariff reductions, the overall tariff rates on imports remain significantly higher than last year, which could negatively impact the economy [1] - He highlighted that businesses are beginning to hesitate in their investment decisions due to uncertainty about the future [1] Cautious Optimism - Dimon expressed cautious optimism regarding the tariff suspension, suggesting that it is essential to step back, reduce hostilities, and engage in dialogue [1] - He emphasized the ongoing global economic uncertainty and the need for policymakers and businesses to seek stable and sustainable solutions to trade issues between the U.S. and China for future economic stability [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coke have changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the growth rate of the demand side has begun to decline. It is expected that there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The domestic macro -利好 has been released, and the market has returned to the game between fundamentals and tariff policies. Although short - term coke demand is acceptable, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. It is expected that the main coke contract will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the near future [5][33]. - For coking coal, domestic policy benefits have been realized, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. The current supply of coking coal is still expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. The market atmosphere is still bearish, which drives the coking coal price to operate weakly. The trend of Sino - US trade issues can be followed in the near future [6][34][35]. Summary According to the Catalog Industry News - In April 2025, China exported 1046.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export of steel was 3789.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 52.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative import of steel was 207.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 3782.5 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to April, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 15267.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [8]. - On May 9, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12800 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1440 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 32.71% | | Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Out - of - Warehouse Price) | 1320 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 34.00% | | Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1030 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 38.69% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1300 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 41.18% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1400 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 36.36% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1446.5 | - 2.10 | 1478.0 | 1444.0 | 19882 | - 8388 | 50769 | 2405 | | Coking Coal | - | 877.5 | - 1.79 | 892.5 | 877.0 | 323286 | - 67585 | 403016 | 27997 | [14] Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals remain stable, with short - term demand supported but limited growth in hot metal production. After the release of domestic macro -利好, the market will focus on fundamentals and tariff policies. The main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][33]. - Coking coal: Policy benefits have been realized, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply is expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. Attention can be paid to the Sino - US trade issue [6][34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - Coking coal has high supply pressure and a weak fundamental situation, which drags down the futures to run at a low level. The follow - up trend of Sino - US trade issues needs attention [5]. - Although there are short - term favorable policies for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressures from coking coal still exist, and the long - short game is intense, with the futures main contract likely to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, but the domestic main production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, coal production in Shanxi remains high, and the reduction in imports is expected to be limited, resulting in high supply pressure [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Situation**: A "package" of incremental policies were introduced this week, and after a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Although short - term demand is okay, overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures still exist [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 7, the coke main contract closed at 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66% intraday. After the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, although the short - term demand for coke is okay, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. The long - short game of coke remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations [5][33]. - On May 7, the coking coal main contract closed at 908 points, down 0.77% intraday. The domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but the fundamentals of coking coal are still weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level. Attention should be paid to the future trend of Sino - US trade issues [6][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced three major measures: reducing the reserve requirement ratio, cutting interest rates, and lowering the provident fund interest rate, providing heavy - weight credit policy support for the property market. The reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market. The policy interest rate was cut by 0.1 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - On May 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1,290 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for flat - position delivery was 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for out - of - warehouse delivery was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 1.49% compared to the previous price. The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 7, the closing price of the coke futures main contract was 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 24,881 and an open interest of 45,157 hands, an increase of 3,280 hands from the previous trading day. The closing price of the coking coal futures main contract was 908 yuan/ton, down 0.77%, with a trading volume of 342,798 and an open interest of 360,120 hands, an increase of 16,714 hands from the previous trading day [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, and other aspects, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and coking coal, as well as charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][21][27] 3.5 Future Outlook - The situation of coke and coking coal futures is similar to the core viewpoints. For coke, the long - short game remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations. For coking coal, the fundamentals are weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level [5][6][33]