Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，三大指数全天高开后维持震荡态势，沪深两市成交额大幅回落，全市场超4000只个股上涨，行业板块普遍上涨，通信、煤炭板块大幅走强，有色金属板块逆市领跌 [2] - 海外方面，特朗普在关税政策上的松动对市场风险偏好有一定修复；国内方面，经济基本面有喜有忧，政策端市场关注二十届四中全会对“十五五”规划的安排，预计以发展新质生产力为主线 [2] - 9月工业生产支撑经济，通缩压力减缓，通胀预期回升有提振作用，但中美贸易问题困扰市场，宏观层面不确定性大，前期估值偏高的中小盘股面临回调压力，建议暂时观望 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: IF主力合约（2512）涨至4506.8，环比+22.2；IH主力合约（2512）涨至2970.4，环比+8.8；IC主力合约（2512）涨至6909.2，环比+44.2；IM主力合约（2512）涨至7059.2，环比+35.0 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH当月合约价差为1547.8，环比+16.2；IM - IC当月合约价差为165.6，环比+25.6等 [2] - **Futures Positions**: IF前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00，环比+774.0；IH前20名净持仓为 - 16,222.00，环比 - 185.0等 [2] - **Basis**: IF主力合约基差为 - 31.4，环比 - 2.4；IH主力合约基差为 - 4.5，环比+0.3等 [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment - A股成交额为17,512.95亿元，环比 - 2031.13；两融余额为24,293.85亿元，环比 - 278.11等 [2] 3.3 Industry News - 前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，同比增长5.2%；9月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%；1 - 9月全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%等 [2] - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，海外特朗普关税政策松动，国内经济基本面有变化，政策端关注二十届四中全会 [2] 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - 10月24日15:15 - 16:30关注法国、德国、欧元区、英国10月SPGI制造业PMI；20:30关注美国9月CPI、核心CPI；21:45关注美国10月SPGI制造业PMI [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on October 14, with strong performance in sectors such as finance, liquor, photovoltaic equipment, and coal, while semiconductor, small metals, communication equipment, and battery sectors underperformed [1][2] - Market expectations for policy support are rising, alongside the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may bolster market confidence [1][2] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to show a rebound in profit growth across most industries due to a low base from the previous year, which is expected to strengthen market fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The A-share market opened high but closed lower, indicating a lack of continuation in the recovery trend, influenced by uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade issues and a recent pullback in technology stocks [2] - All three major indices fell below the 10-day moving average, suggesting a more ambiguous overall market trend and increased short-term risks [2] - Despite short-term caution, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to sustained interest in technology investments driven by the global AI wave, improved liquidity from household savings entering the market, and favorable global liquidity conditions from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market experienced fluctuations in Q3 2025, initially supported by costs and fundamentals, but later declined due to external market influences and unexpected news. The outlook for Q4 suggests a potential for stronger soybean oil prices due to tightening supply and ongoing supportive factors in the domestic and international vegetable oil markets [1][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the price of domestic first-grade soybean oil first rose and then fell, reaching a low of 8069 CNY/ton on July 7 and a high of 8730 CNY/ton on August 13. The average price for the quarter was 8428 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.08% increase from the previous quarter and a 7.30% increase year-on-year [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics in Q3 showed an increase in both supply and demand for soybean oil, but the growth in inventory limited the price increase [1][5]. Group 2: Import Costs and Supply - The increase in soybean import costs was a significant factor supporting soybean oil prices in Q3. The cost of imported soybeans rose to 4130 CNY/ton, up 6.63% quarter-on-quarter and 3.92% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for Brazilian soybeans amid ongoing trade issues [3]. - The volume of soybean imports increased, with China importing 8618 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%. The average operating rate of key domestic crushing enterprises was 67%, up 11 percentage points from the previous quarter, resulting in a soybean oil output of 527 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.56% [3]. Group 3: Demand and Inventory - Domestic demand for soybean oil saw limited growth in Q3, with total consumption reaching 497 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.18%. However, the increase in production led to a significant rise in inventory, with port soybean oil stocks reaching 122 million tons, up 41.86% from the previous quarter [5]. - The demand situation was influenced by seasonal factors and market uncertainties, leading to increased purchasing activity from downstream customers ahead of traditional holidays, despite a weaker restaurant industry impacting overall demand [5]. Group 4: External Market Influences - By the end of Q3, external market prices for soybean oil declined, with CBOT soybean oil dropping to 49.44 cents/pound, a decrease of 12.85% from its quarterly high, and Malaysian palm oil prices falling by 4.58% [7]. - Looking ahead to Q4, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to decline, and domestic oil mill operating rates are anticipated to decrease, tightening soybean oil supply. However, seasonal reductions in consumption are also expected [7]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The biodiesel policy remains a significant factor influencing the vegetable oil market, with expectations of increased demand supporting both domestic and international vegetable oil markets despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. biodiesel policy implementation [7]. - Overall, the soybean oil market is expected to experience a strong performance in Q4, with prices projected to range between 8300 and 8700 CNY/ton, supported by fundamental supply-demand factors and international market influences [7].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The overall increase in gold prices at domestic gold stores exceeds 20 yuan, with most stores surpassing the 1200 yuan mark [1] - Lao Miao Gold has seen a significant rise of 29 yuan per gram, reaching a new high of 1218 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1100 yuan per gram, with a price difference of 118 yuan per gram [1] - Detailed price changes for various gold brands include: Lao Miao Gold at 1218 yuan (+29), Liufu Gold at 1215 yuan (+25), and Zhou Dafu Gold at 1215 yuan (+25) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has surged by 35.5 yuan per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [2] - Current recycling prices for selected brands are: 944.50 yuan per gram for gold, 947.70 yuan for Cai Zhi Gold, and 955.20 yuan for Lao Feng Xiang Gold [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - Spot gold prices have surged over 90 dollars, breaking historical highs, and currently stand at 4123.01 dollars per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase [4] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo attributes the rising gold prices to ongoing U.S.-China trade issues and strong demand from investors and central banks, with a target price of 4200 dollars per ounce [4] - The signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement by leaders from Egypt, the U.S., Qatar, and Turkey has slightly eased concerns over escalating conflicts, which has limited the recent surge in gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core issue of the trade relationship between the US and China remains unresolved, with both sides unable to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement, leading to increased uncertainty in trade matters [2][3] - The US Department of Commerce has implemented new export control rules targeting companies on the "entity list," which primarily affects Chinese firms, indicating a strategic move to prevent sanctioned companies from acquiring US products through subsidiaries [3][5] - The recent escalation in US sanctions is perceived as a response to China's military advancements, which have heightened US political sensitivities, suggesting that further actions may follow [5][6] Group 2 - The decline in US agricultural exports to China, particularly soybeans, has resulted in significant financial distress for American farmers, potentially impacting political support for the Trump administration [6][8] - The US's aggressive stance on semiconductor and artificial intelligence technologies may backfire, as China has developed alternatives, indicating that US sanctions could harm its own supply chains [8][10] - China's potential countermeasures, including export controls on strategic minerals like rare earths, could disrupt US military and technology sectors, prompting US industry leaders to seek negotiations with the Trump administration [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Domestic short - term supply is sufficient, and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on soybean meal. However, due to Sino - US trade issues, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. There is a possibility of a retracement to 2930 yuan for support confirmation. Be cautious about bullish operations before the holiday [1][4]. - **Short - term decline in rapeseed meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in palm oil**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are positive for consumption expectations, but frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may limit its performance before the double holidays. Be cautious about bullish operations [1][8]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in soybean oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and the approaching US soybean harvest may pressure soybean oil, while domestic double - festival stocking demand is positive, but there is a lack of its own upward - driving force. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end [1]. - **Oscillating and bullish in rapeseed oil**: Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand support high - level and strong oscillations, but the resumption of Sino - Australian trade restricts continuous upward movement. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian negotiations and US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautiously bearish on cotton**: US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries' increasing supply pressures the market, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting has started with no obvious price - holding behavior. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][12]. - **Cautiously bearish on red dates**: Although there is an expected reduction in new - season production, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap after considering inventory. The weather speculation window is shrinking, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][14]. - **Cautiously bearish on live pigs**: The spot market is under continuous pressure from supply, and the bearish sentiment in the futures market is rising. In the short and medium term, supply pressure is obvious. Consider short - selling the November contract on rebounds and maintaining the reverse - spread strategy [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, down 70.3 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons week - on - week; and bean粕 inventory was 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average soybean crushing profit was - 150.7804 yuan/ton, up 14.45 yuan; the basis of bean粕01 was - 84 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.79 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [5]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 172.3755 yuan/ton, up 18.69 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal01 was 42 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the national key area commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons week - on - week; the weekly commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons [7][8]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of bullish views was 29%, down 6 percentage points; the proportion of bearish views was 47%, up 29 percentage points [7]. Cotton - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - **Prices**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13610 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the domestic spot price was 15242 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9][10]. - **Operation and Profit**: The mainstream area spinning mills' operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage point; the weaving mills' operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the spinning mills' cotton profit was - 994.30 yuan/ton, up 112.20 yuan [9]. Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Prices**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10735 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day; the spot price of Kashgar general - grade dates remained unchanged at 6 yuan/kg [13]. - **Market Situation**: The yield is expected to decrease, but there may not be a significant supply - demand gap after considering inventory [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig存栏 was 3782.4 million heads, up 0.51%; the planned September slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month [15][16]. - **Prices**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the latest spot price was 12930 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [15][16]. - **Operation and Profit**: The key slaughter enterprises' daily operating rate was 32.95%, up 0.21 percentage points; the slaughter profit was - 18.2 yuan/head, up 0.70 yuan [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report predicts a short - term rebound for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, although the short - term supply in China is sufficient and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on prices, the Sino - US trade issue limits the continuous decline space. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows soybean meal, with trade policies and high inventory leading to a mixed situation of long and short factors [1][4]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to have short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a positive consumption outlook due to Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies and the procurement demand from China and India in September, but the frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and the many short - term factors in the US soybean oil market may suppress its performance this month. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy changes and the approaching US soybean harvest, while the domestic double - festival stocking demand provides some support [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate bullishly. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the double - festival demand support its high - level and strong - oscillating price, but the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, red dates, and live pigs are rated as cautiously bearish. For cotton, the increasing supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the poor export demand of US cotton, and the high level of unpriced buy orders suppress the price, with a possible short - term rebound due to potential new - cotton rush - buying. Red dates may face pressure after the new fruit is launched, with possible large price fluctuations before November. Live pigs' spot prices are under pressure from high - volume supply, and the market lacks clear positive factors in capacity regulation [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3031.71 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 165.2295 yuan/ton, up 20.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.686 million tons, up 25,000 tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.332 million tons, up 15,000 tons (0.21%) from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 28,200 tons (2.48%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 191.067 yuan/ton, up 67.23 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 74,000 tons, down 27,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, down 500 tons from last week [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9345 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 641,500 tons, up 22,200 tons (3.58%) from last week. The export data of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 showed different trends in different reports [7][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.33% to 13720 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped by 0.24% to 15293 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract fell by 0.90% to 66.30 cents/pound [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the international market, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest and supply period. In the domestic market, new cotton is about to be launched, the demand is weak, and the export of textile and clothing in August decreased year - on - year [10][11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Information**: The red date main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.47% to 10670 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The estimated new - season production is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.47% to 12825 yuan/ton, and the latest spot price increased slightly by 0.23% to 12940 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned出栏量 in September is expected to increase. In the medium - term, the出栏量 is expected to grow until the first quarter of 2026. The demand is expected to gradually show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - **Analysis**: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Analysis**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - **Analysis**: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - **Market Conditions**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - **Analysis**: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - **Market Conditions**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

Group 1 - The impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with service sector PMI falling short of expectations and several sub-indices deteriorating rapidly [1] - Although imports have sharply decreased, leading to a reduction in the US trade deficit, consumer spending has noticeably weakened [1] - The market has raised the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September to nearly 90%, despite PMI remaining above 50, which does not provide sufficient justification for an immediate rate cut [1] Group 2 - In the short term, market liquidity is deemed more critical than fundamentals for driving market performance, as evidenced by the rising stock market despite declining GDP growth since 2011 [1] - The continuous influx of capital from the north to the south is expected to lead to new highs in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year, following historical trends [1] - Both Hong Kong and A-share markets present numerous investment opportunities, with Hong Kong benefiting from abundant liquidity and potential synchronized rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - A-share sectors such as infrastructure, Apple supply chain, Tesla supply chain, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 are performing well and are not available in the Hong Kong market [2] - The challenges faced in the current anti-involution measures are more significant than previous efforts, with upstream industries experiencing prolonged deflation that is affecting downstream sectors [2] - The worst outcomes of the US-China trade war are believed to be behind, although negative headlines may still cause short-term market fluctuations [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. If inventory accumulation exceeds expectations in August - September or purchases from China and India remain poor, it may be seasonally short - allocated. Strategies like expanding the rapeseed - palm oil spread and reverse - arbitrage between September and January contracts are recommended. However, there are potential bullish factors in the second half of the year, and it's advisable to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [2][5]. - Soybean oil also has a pattern of weak current situation and strong future prospects. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis. There are opportunities to go long on soybean oil in the fourth quarter, while observing changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Positive news about US biodiesel obligations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, leading to a 4.86% weekly increase in the palm oil 09 contract [1]. - Soybean oil: The same positive factors in the US biodiesel policy and Middle East situation affected US soybeans and US soybean oil directly, resulting in a 4.75% weekly rise in the soybean oil 09 contract [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Production: June rainfall forecasts indicate continued dryness in Malaysia. Conservatively estimated, production may remain flat or slightly decrease to 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. The annual production in Malaysia in 2025 is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production than last year from July - August [2]. - Export and inventory: Export from the producing areas remains strong, with ITS reporting a 14.31% increase in exports in the first 20 days of June. India's palm oil imports in June may exceed 900,000 tons, leading to a strong expectation of inventory reduction in Malaysia in June [2]. - Market impact: The US biodiesel policy is positive. In the 2025/2026 season, about 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply will be withdrawn from the international market, causing a potential upward trend in the international oil market. There are differences in market expectations for palm oil production this year. If good yields are maintained from July - August, there may be significant inventory accumulation pressure from August - September [2]. Soybean oil - International market: The EPA significantly increased the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for biomass diesel in 2026, reversing market expectations. The price of US soybean oil has room to rise further. In the 2025/2026 season, the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by at least 1.5 million tons to 6.93 million tons, and the expected consumption in 2026 is over 10 million tons [3][4]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly due to high crushing rates, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 8,170 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,600 yuan/ton, a low of 8,140 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,536 yuan/ton, with a 4.86% increase [7]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 7,788 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,198 yuan/ton, a low of 7,780 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,156 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 9,324 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,750 yuan/ton, a low of 9,295 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,726 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% increase [7]. - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 4,035 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,144 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,034 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, with a 4.79% increase [7]. - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 52.55 cents/pound, reached a high of 56.47 cents/pound, a low of 52.55 cents/pound, and closed at 55.04 cents/pound, with a 7.52% increase [7]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline month - on - month, and inventory may decrease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise rapidly in the second quarter [9][11]. - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase compared to the same period last month [11]. - Price spread: The POGO spread is declining, indicating pressure on palm oil fundamentals. The Indian soybean - palm oil CNF spread is rising [11][12]. - Import: The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2025 have decreased by 270,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils have decreased by 540,000 tons [12].