Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' Asia Economic Team projects that China's actual exports are expected to achieve an annual growth rate of around 8% this year, with a forecast of double-digit growth in 2024, leading to an upward revision of the export growth forecast from 2%-3% to 5%-6% for the coming years [1] Group 1 - Structural advantages supporting China's export growth include a significant and expanding cost advantage, which is expected to continue driving an increase in global market share [1] - Increased investment in emerging economies by China is stimulating local demand for Chinese products, exemplified by the growth in capital goods exports to Africa [1] - Strong performance in high-tech product exports is attributed to policy support and robust overseas market demand, with expectations for continued strong growth driven by policy, technological advantages, and higher overseas profit margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports have shown strong resilience in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in Q2, despite the U.S. imposing tariffs as high as 145% [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports accelerated in Q3, and the high base in Q4 is not expected to hinder continued high growth [1] - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to macroeconomic and industrial cycles, as well as structural support from seven years of industrial transformation and upgrading since 2018 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - China's exports are expected to maintain high growth through 2026, even in a globally high inflation environment, with exceptional profitability in the export chain [1] - The successful transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing and export industries are key factors in maintaining confidence against U.S. tariff adjustments [1]

Core Insights - Despite the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, China's export engine remains strong, with external demand from other economies largely offsetting the decline in exports to the U.S. [1][3] - In May, China's exports to the U.S. fell by nearly 35% year-on-year, yet overall exports grew by approximately 5%, driven by rapid trade expansion to other markets [3][5] - High-tech products are leading the growth in Chinese exports, with significant increases in exports of semiconductors, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, and mechanical components [5] Group 1 - The decline in exports to the U.S. is counterbalanced by strong demand from Southeast Asia, the EU, Latin America, and India [3][5] - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to the high liquidity of goods trade and the ability of Chinese exporters to adjust trade flows [3][5] - Chinese leading enterprises have enhanced their competitive edge by improving their position in the value chain, resulting in internationally competitive products [5] Group 2 - The growth in exports is expected to continue as long as global economic growth remains stable and end-user demand is healthy [5] - The increasing share of non-U.S. buyers in China's export market indicates a shift in trade dynamics [5] - Analysts suggest that bilateral tariffs are unlikely to fundamentally alter trade flows, allowing for sustained growth in Chinese exports [5]