Core Viewpoint - The Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October has declined to 49.0%, marking the first drop in three months, attributed to seasonal factors and a complex international environment [1][2]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The October PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity due to pre-holiday demand release and external factors [1]. - Historical data indicates that the PMI typically declines in October, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past decade [1][2]. Group 2: Sub-Indices Analysis - In October, various sub-indices such as production, new orders, and new export orders all saw declines, with the new export orders index at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, indicating a tightening in manufacturing exports [2]. - The production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, consistent with seasonal patterns and external trade uncertainties [2]. Group 3: Stability Factors - Despite the decline in PMI, there are signs of stability in the manufacturing sector, with high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries maintaining PMIs above 50, indicating expansion [3]. - Large enterprises continue to play a stabilizing role, with their production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for October was at 52.8%, suggesting a generally optimistic outlook among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, indicating overall stability in business operations [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that external environmental disturbances may gradually ease, which could benefit the recovery of China's manufacturing and macroeconomic landscape [4]. - There is a recognition of the need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to address insufficient effective demand impacting production investment [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]