Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The State Council will issue the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and promote the equipment update loan discount policy to reduce the financing cost of business entities. The steel supply increased last week, driving up raw material demand and strengthening cost support, which in turn led to a rebound in steel prices. Although the apparent demand decreased slightly, in line with the off - season characteristics, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and rebound in the short term due to cost - push factors [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3121 | 5 | 0.16 | 2632410 | 1510669 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 716.5 | 13.5 | 1.92 | 1692774 | 654225 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 847.5 | 52.5 | 6.60 | 5225301 | 733946 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1421.5 | 37.0 | 2.67 | 144716 | 56720 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. The macro - level policy of consumer goods trade - in and the increase in steel production at the fundamental level supported the raw material demand and cost. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (- 10) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 10) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3190 (- 10) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - On June 26, the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in will be issued in July, and the national subsidy fund usage plan will be formulated monthly and weekly. Recently, inspections in Linfen, Shanxi are frequent. Two coal mines in Pu County stopped production due to environmental protection, with a production capacity of 330 million tons. Some coal mines and coal - washing plants are still shut down, and the supply in Linfen continues to shrink. The state will support equipment updates with 200 billion Yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds this year, with the first batch of about 173 billion Yuan already allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is under project review and screening [7][10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][16]

Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that in July, the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade program will be released, indicating a continued focus on "people's livelihood" over infrastructure, which may support stock market resilience [1][2][3] - The banking sector has reached a historical high, with the current dividend yield spread over the 10-year government bond yield at approximately 2.36%, which is at the 16% low percentile level since 2008, suggesting that the historical context may indicate a lower actual percentile [1][3] - Despite the low yield spread, it does not imply a significant adjustment for bank stocks, as the scarcity of assets in a low-interest-rate environment has reduced the risk premium for high-dividend sectors, indicating potential opportunities in the banking industry, albeit with lowered expectations [1][3] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking index rose by 1.06%, continuing to set historical highs, with the median dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the China Securities Banking Index dropping to 4.00% [3] - The low interest rate environment has altered the risk premium dynamics, suggesting that the banking sector may still present opportunities despite the current low yield levels [3] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a larger decline than the A-share market, primarily due to the Hong Kong dollar reaching the weak side of the convertibility guarantee, leading to tightened liquidity [4] - Despite the tightening liquidity, there is still a continuous inflow of southbound funds, which may support the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. The double - coking market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term, and the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom. The ferroalloy market is expected to be oscillating strongly [5][6][9][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: On June 26, the NDRC announced policies including issuing the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July, implementing equipment renewal loan interest subsidies, and having 200 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal. In mid - June, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.148 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel was 2.77 million tons, a 1.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Price**: The rebar price in Shanghai is 3,060 yuan (- 10), in Beijing is 3,150 yuan (- 10); the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,180 yuan (-), in Tianjin is 3,100 yuan (-) [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector rose last night, with coal and coke leading. Steel production increased this week, exports decreased, and the apparent demand is expected to weaken. Some blast furnaces started to reduce production, but the incentive for steel mills to cut production is low due to high profits. The steel price is oscillating at the bottom in the short term and may decline in the medium - to - long term [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - maintain bottom - side oscillation; Arbitrage - hold the 10 - 01 reverse spread; Option - wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: From July 11 to July 15, Mongolian ports will be closed for the Naadam Festival, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles is expected to decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.82%, unchanged from last week [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron water output increased slightly this week, and the supply of coking coal is temporarily reduced. The spot market sentiment has improved, and the fourth - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The double - coking fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - wait and see, and consider shorting at high levels in the medium term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Option - wait and see; Spot - futures - pay attention to spot - futures positive spread opportunities [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 26, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 872,000 tons, a 19% decrease from the previous day. The night - session iron ore price rose 1.2%, and the PB powder spot price in Qingdao Port is 701 yuan (- 1) [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of mainstream mines is stable, and the demand for iron ore remains high. The current market focuses on whether the weak reality in the off - season can be continuously traded. Considering the low valuation of the black sector and the positive spread structure, the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - wait and see [17]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: UMK announced the price of South African semi - carbonate lump manganese ore for China in July 2025 at $3.85 per ton - degree, a decrease of $0.05 [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon - iron spot price is slightly stronger, and the manganese - silicon market is also showing a strong trend. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - sell call options at high levels [17][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector is "slightly bullish with a tendency to fluctuate" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The national development and reform commission announced on June 26 that it will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy, with continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies. After the news of the easing of the Middle East situation faded, the winder all - A index rose for three consecutive days from Monday to Wednesday and then slightly pulled back on Thursday. Treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and slightly declined and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety performed slightly stronger, bottomed out in the afternoon and then rebounded. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Thursday was flat compared with the previous trading day, with the weighted average of DR001 at 1.37% and that of DR007 at 1.69%. In the spot bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.25 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year fell 0.75 BP to 1.51%, the 10 - year fell 0.82 BP to 1.65%, and the 30 - year fell 1.30 BP to 1.85%. The national development and reform commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy [1] Market Logic - The continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies and the fading impact of the easing of the Middle East situation on the financial market led to the short - term horizontal fluctuation of the main varieties of treasury bond futures, and they may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - oriented investors should conduct band operations [1]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/27 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: NDRC announced that the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in p ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong SAR government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to establish Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset field [1] - The new policy declaration builds on the first declaration from October 2022, emphasizing the government's vision for digital asset development and the practical application of tokenization [1] - The declaration aims to create a robust digital asset ecosystem that integrates with the real economy and social life, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as an international financial center [1] Group 2 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance," targeting the establishment of a high-quality inclusive financial system within five years [2] - The plan focuses on optimizing the inclusive financial service system, enhancing the inclusive credit system, and strengthening the inclusive insurance system to support private enterprises [2] Group 3 - China Mobile is seeking nationwide partners for the "RWA Ecological Cooperation" initiative to promote the digitalization and capitalization of real-world assets (RWA) [3] - The initiative will select 20 units to form the "RWA Joint Laboratory," focusing on data resource integration, technology research and development, and funding support [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to implement an integrated action for domestic and foreign trade, aiming to cultivate leading enterprises in this area [4] - The ministry will host over 330 events for foreign trade promotion and enhance policy support for enterprises facing difficulties [4] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement a loan interest subsidy policy for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [5] - The sales of related products for the "old-for-new" policy have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] Group 6 - The National Medical Insurance Administration has included a commercial health insurance innovation drug directory in the 2025 adjustment plan, highlighting the growing role of commercial health insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [6] Group 7 - A new generation of domestically developed CPU, the Longxin 3C6000, was released, which does not rely on any foreign supply chains and meets various computing needs [7][8] Group 8 - The Central and State Offices issued opinions to advance flood control reservoir construction and improve the flood control engineering system [9] Group 9 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced additional central budget investments to support local implementation of labor substitution projects, aiming to address employment and income issues for key groups [10] Group 10 - Shanghai is focusing on industries such as cell and gene therapy, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to enhance its technological innovation and research capabilities [11]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is effectively boosting investment, consumption, and transformation in China, with significant sales growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, leading to over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales from trade-in programs this year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funding for consumer goods trade-in programs in July, ensuring a structured and balanced approach to fund allocation throughout the year [3][6] - A total of 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds will be allocated to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][6] - The NDRC aims to enhance project management and financial oversight for equipment upgrades, with 200 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates this year [6] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Sales Data - As of May 31, 2025, the trade-in program has generated 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [5] - The program has seen significant participation, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and millions of purchases in home appliances and digital products [5] Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Developments - The Guangdong provincial government has confirmed that it will not prematurely end the trade-in policy, addressing concerns about temporary suspensions in certain cities due to system upgrades [5] - Recent policies from various departments emphasize financial support for key consumption areas, including trade-in programs for old vehicles and appliances, aiming to enhance consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 300 billion yuan in trade-in subsidies is projected to represent approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024, potentially boosting retail sales growth by about 1 percentage point this year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the funding for the consumer goods replacement program and aims to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization while simplifying the subsidy application process [1] Group 1: Funding and Financial Mechanisms - The NDRC will collaborate with the Ministry of Finance to expedite the allocation of funds for the consumer goods replacement program [1] - There will be a focus on establishing a mechanism for direct and efficient access to special long-term government bond funds [1] - The introduction of interest subsidies for equipment renewal loans is intended to lower financing costs for various business entities [1] Group 2: Consumer Experience and Operational Efficiency - Efforts will be made to simplify the subsidy application process and clarify the timelines for review and payment [1] - The aim is to enhance consumer experience and alleviate the financial pressure on businesses regarding advance funding [1]