杨帆认为，不确定性或贯穿2025年经济运行。回顾历史上不确定性陡升时期，全球经济呈现阶段性收缩 与结构性分化并存的特征。 对于外部环境，杨帆表示，将特朗普再次执政期和疫情期比较，相同之处可能在于全球多数经济体会面 临私人部门投资活动在不确定性环境下放缓的现象，各国财政部门或保持相对宽松的财政政策予以对 冲；不同之处在于本轮通胀可能呈现成本推动型特征，关税带来的价格上涨将侵蚀美国居民的购买力， 难以延续疫情期间的"消费—利润—收入—消费"循环。美国消费的走弱或将导致中国外需走弱，拖累中 国经济的增长动能。 对于内部环境，杨帆表示，不确定性也为我国改革带来契机，2025年迎来"十五五"经济社会发展规划的 制定，将涉及经济走势、科技革命、财政关系等重大宏观问题，引领我国产业迈向更高质量的发展。预 计财政扩张将更加聚焦促进消费回暖与价格修复，短期纾困与长期培育并举，以化解隐债与转型升级推 动基建投资回暖，地产调控仍着眼于供需再平衡。 证券时报记者 孙翔峰 5月28日，中信证券2025年资本市场论坛在上海举行。中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师杨帆、中信证券 首席A股策略分析师裘翔分别发表了宏观、策略方面的最新观点。 "为解 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that Chinese equity assets are entering an annual-level bull market starting from Q4 2025, with a simultaneous expansion of fiscal and monetary policies across major global economies [2] - The market is expected to shift from a focus on small-cap stocks to a trend-driven rally in core assets, marking a significant change since 2021 [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - Key long-term trends identified include the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, Europe's focus on energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves, and China's acceleration in improving social security and stimulating domestic demand [2] - The 2025 economic and social development plan is anticipated to guide China's industries towards higher quality development, with a focus on future industries such as 6G, embodied intelligence, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 3: Private Fund Performance - In 2024, 23.36% of the 3938 private fund products reported dividends, with Junfu Investment leading with 17 dividend-paying products [3] - Among the 429 billion-yuan private fund products, 13.75% had dividends, with the top managers being Ruanfu Investment and Tianyan Capital [3] Group 4: Financing Activities - Manbi Intelligent, an AI company, completed a new round of financing worth several hundred million yuan, with notable investors including Moutai Fund and Hongtai Fund [4] - Tantu Technology announced the completion of a several hundred million yuan Series B financing, aiming to enhance core component R&D and expand market presence [5] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Taikang Asset's private fund management company has completed registration with an initial investment scale of 12 billion yuan, focusing on private securities investment funds [6] - Zhongtai Securities has received approval for a public offering of up to 6 billion yuan, with plans for investments in technology, alternative investments, and wealth management [7][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese equity market is expected to enter a bull market starting from Q4 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles among major global economies, with a shift in market style towards core assets after four years of small-cap rotations [1][2] - The China Securities Index 800 Free Cash Flow Index has shown a positive performance, with a 0.90% increase, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Debon Logistics (up 9.98%) and Lao Feng Xiang (up 7.35%) [1] - The introduction of policies to support listed companies in attracting institutional investors with over 5% holdings and establishing long-term cash dividend policies is expected to enhance corporate governance and attract long-term capital [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the decline in risk-free interest rates will be a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025, leading to a broad-based increase in valuations for both A and H shares, particularly benefiting blue-chip stocks [2] - The Cash Flow 800 ETF primarily consists of large-cap blue-chip stocks, focusing on high dividend yields, stable cash flows, and profitability [3] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index 800 Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 69.54% of the index, highlighting the concentration of cash flow-generating companies [3]