证 券 研 究 报 告 杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔偏鸽，中国权益领涨全球 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250815-20250822) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.08.25 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250815-20250822)本周五的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔整体发言偏鸽，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。但 同时也指出在近期，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行。整体态度偏鸽，但市场也对短期快速降息的预期进行了修正。本周中国股市持续走强，领涨全球股市，1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率下行7BPs至4.26%，美元指数略微下跌，当前位于100以下；2）权益方面，本周中国股市持续走强，创业板、沪深300和恒生科技领涨全球股市，分别上涨6.1%、 4.2%和4.1%；3）商品方面，本周商品类资产多数反弹，布伦特原油上涨1.71%，黄 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示，截至8月22日，A股已有1526家上市公司对外披露2025年半年报，其中921家 上市公司实现净利润同比增长，占比约为60.35%。进一步来讲，净利润同比增幅超过10%的有761家，超过30%的有 501家，超过50%的有359家，超过100%的有210家，超过300%的有66家。 其中，数码视讯、先达股份、智明达、容知日新、仕佳光子、索通发展等公司2025年上半年归属于上市公司股东的净 利润增幅居前。其中，数码视讯2025年上半年共实现营业收入约2.65亿元，同比增长24.7%；实现归属于上市公司股东 的净利润约1670万元，同比增长2747.64%。 站在净利润规模角度，上述1526家上市公司中，净利润超过1亿元的有567家，超过5亿元的有180家，超过10亿元的有 88家，超过50亿元的有19家，超过100亿元的有8家。中国移动、贵州茅台、宁德时代、中国电信、中国石化、工业富 联、牧原股份、华能国际、洛阳钼业等公司2025年上半年净利润居前。 而在申万一级行业中，电子、交通运输、农林牧渔、汽车、机械设备、有色金属、家用电器、社会服务等行业营业收 入表现较好。农林牧 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant market activity on August 20, with 102 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 14 stocks hitting the limit down [1] - The liquid metal concept saw strong performance, with Dongfang Zirconium hitting the limit up [1] - The smart speaker concept also gained traction, with Kosen Technology achieving a four-day consecutive limit up and Huiwei Technology hitting the limit up [1] Group 2 - ST Gaohong faced a continuous decline, hitting the limit down for eight consecutive days [2] - Aili Home and ST Nanzhi both experienced limit down for two consecutive days [2] - ST Huarong and Xintian Pharmaceutical also faced limit down [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation positions of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant weights in non-bank financials (8.9%), comprehensive (8.5%), and telecommunications (7.7%) sectors [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is reported at 0.8%, with the telecommunications sector leading at 6.5% and banking lagging at -2.1% [3][10] - The report indicates that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 17.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 2.1% [3] Industry Performance Review - The top three performing industries for the week are telecommunications (6.5%), comprehensive financials (6.0%), and electric equipment & new energy (3.3%), while the worst performers are banking (-2.1%), national defense & military (-1.7%), and textiles & apparel (-1.7%) [3][10] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of weekly and monthly returns across various industries, indicating a strong performance in sectors like telecommunications and comprehensive financials [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with high valuation risks. Currently, the retail trade, national defense & military, media, and computer industries are flagged for high valuations, exceeding the 95% percentile [12][13] - The methodology for the valuation warning system involves excluding the top 10% of PB ratios to ensure robust estimates [12] Strategy Performance - The report outlines various strategies and their performance, with the highest excess return from the long-term reversal strategy (6.3%) and the lowest from the funds flow strategy (-2.0%) [3] - The current top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy are non-bank financials, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals [15][16] Macro Style Rotation - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries based on macroeconomic indicators, which include comprehensive financials, computers, media, national defense & military, comprehensive, and non-bank financials [21][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic indicators in predicting industry performance and the methodology used to rank industries based on their exposure to various styles [22] Emotional Momentum Tracking - The emotional momentum tracking strategy identifies the top three industries based on implied market sentiment, which are machinery, telecommunications, and light industry manufacturing [18][20] - This strategy focuses on capturing market sentiment before earnings expectations are published, utilizing daily return and turnover rate data [19]

本篇报告是由和恒咨询发布，《2024年报专精特新上市公司市值战略研究报告》主要聚焦于专精特新上市公司在市值管理方面的表现和战略建议。 作为我国广大中小企业的领头羊，下游需求收缩不可避免地传导至专精特新企业，使其面临的内卷压力逐步加大。专精特新企业，尤其是上市公司，是研 究"科技创新如何引领经济走出内卷"的最佳样本之一，更是观察新质生产力发展路径的重要窗口——这正是本报告希望呼应的核心命题。 从趋势来看，专精特新上市公司数量呈持续增长态势,其在A股的数量占比较2022年的31.44%提升了2.92个百分点；但市值规模占比有所波动,较2023年的 14.99%小幅下降0.83个百分点。 2024年报 专精特新上市公司 市值战略 研究报告 2025年8月 | 一、专精特新 2024年整体情况概览 . | | --- | | 1.1 重要历史使命 . | | 1.2 指数持续大幅跑赢大盘中盘 . | | 1.3 估值溢价高,但明显分层 | | 二、科学的市值管理战略方法论 . | | 2.1 市值管理的本质是"做价值涨预期" . | | 2.1.1 价值创造 . | | 2.1.2 价值塑造 . | | 2.1.3 ...

截至2025年8月14日 13:54，恒生科技指数下跌0.87%。成分股方面涨跌互现，华虹半导体领涨3.42%， 地平线机器人-W上涨2.31%，商汤-W上涨1.79%；比亚迪电子领跌，联想集团、网易-S跟跌。恒生科技 ETF嘉实(159741)下修调整。 流动性方面，恒生科技ETF嘉实盘中换手12.5%，成交1.06亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至8月 13日，恒生科技ETF嘉实近1年日均成交1.51亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。恒生科技ETF嘉实最新融资买入额达703.23万元，最新融资余额达 1332.99万元。 截至8月13日，恒生科技ETF嘉实近3年净值上涨33.50%。从收益能力看，截至2025年8月13日，恒生科 技ETF嘉实自成立以来，最高单月回报为33.67%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为23.28%，上 涨月份平均收益率为7.43%。 财通证券指出，过去两年，恒生科技指数在中国及全球范围均实现显著超额收益，2025年内涨幅为 21.7%（同期万得全A/纳斯达克100分别为15.5%/13.5%）。核心标的方面，目前市场对核心互联网标的 的盈利预期已较为充分，中报阶段的关 ...

2024年，专精特新上市公司在复杂环境中展现出独特发展态势，既是创新驱动与产业升级的核心力量，也是观察新质生产力的重要窗口，却也面临内卷压 力，固定资产周转率下滑。 市值管理本质是"做价值涨预期"。"做价值"含价值创造、塑造和经营。2024年价值创造得分44.78，未及格，盈利质量分化加剧；价值塑造得分38.51，偏短 视，产业投资逻辑不清晰；价值经营意愿增强，回购、增持、股权激励活跃，并购金额提升但活跃度下降。"涨预期"包括预期传播、稳定和释放。预期传播 主动性强但市场反馈弱；预期稳定保持优势，信披合规较好；预期释放回报性增强，价值分层凸显。 市值管理分诊断、规划设计、实施推进三阶段。针对现状，建议厚植价值创造，坚持"一米宽万米深"战略；加大与资本市场互动，提升资本运作专业化；加 快市值管理工具箱建设，借力专业机构。 2024年专精特新上市公司市值管理整体得分46.56，低于A股，关键窗口已开启，需多措并举实现高质量发展。 从整体表现看，其数量占A股34.36%，市值达11.02万亿元，指数持续跑赢大盘和中盘，截至2025年8月5日较2021年初上涨10.71%，估值溢价高但分层明 显，65.81%公司市值 ...

Export and Import Growth - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% (previous value 5.9%), while import growth was 4.1% (previous value 1.1%) [5] - Month-on-month, July exports decreased by 1.1% compared to June, slightly below seasonal levels but higher than the same period in 2024 [5] - The trade surplus decreased in July 2025 [5] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, with growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments before August tariffs [11] - Exports to the United States decreased by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions increased by 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [11] Product-Specific Insights - In the machinery and electronics sector, equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to previous over-shipments [18] - Labor-intensive imports decreased, while grain imports saw a notable increase [23] Future Outlook and Risks - Export growth is expected to moderate, with key risks including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments [29] - The resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment [29]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest drop in valuation [1] - Overall valuations have decreased across indices, with the CSI 300 leading the decline [1][4] - Consumer services have shown resilience in PE valuation, while banks have led in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The CSI 300 index has seen a PE-TTM historical percentile drop of 6.5 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile has decreased by 7.5 percentage points [4][5] - All major indices have experienced a comprehensive decline in valuations, with the CSI 300 index leading the downturn [4][5] Industry Valuation - In terms of PE valuation, consumer services have increased by 1.0 percentage point, while banks have led in PB valuation with a 0.5 percentage point increase [4][5] - The automotive sector is noted for its cost-effectiveness in the PE-G comparison [4] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across most indices, except for the ChiNext index, which saw an increase of 2.3% in turnover rate and 8.2% in transaction volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance has risen to 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.30% increase [4][5] Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has slightly increased to 4.71%, up by 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [4][5]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is approaching its conclusion, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure high-quality development [2][4] - The completion of major projects, such as the Yebatan Hydropower Station, is crucial for economic recovery, with efforts to enhance construction efficiency and ensure timely production [3][4] - Various regions are implementing targeted measures to stimulate consumption and support enterprises, including financial incentives and local initiatives [5][6] Group 2 - The development of new advantages is emphasized, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, with significant investments and support for innovation ecosystems [7][8] - Financial institutions are adapting to support technology-driven enterprises, with increased funding for innovation and technology transformation [8] - The ongoing reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aim to enhance support for high-quality, unprofitable tech companies, reflecting a commitment to fostering innovation [9][10] Group 3 - The commitment to deepening reform and opening up is evident, with new policies to enhance market access and attract foreign investment [12][13] - International perceptions of China's economic prospects are improving, with forecasts for economic growth being revised upward by major financial institutions [13][14] - The emphasis on high-quality development and the ability to meet the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a foundation for future economic stability [14]