2月24日，商务部发布公告，将引能仕株式会社、日油株式会社等无法核实两用物项最终用户、最终用 途的20家日本实体列入关注名单，自公布之日起正式实施。 公告称，出口经营者向上述实体出口两用物项，不得申请通用许可或者以登记填报信息方式获得出口凭 证；申请单项许可时，应当提交对列入关注名单实体的风险评估报告，并提供不将两用物项用于一切有 助于提升日本军事实力用途的书面承诺。许可审查期限不受《中华人民共和国两用物项出口管制条例》 第十七条第一款规定期限的限制。 商务部将对关注名单中实体的两用物项出口实施更严格的最终用户和最终用途审查，涉日本军事用户、 军事用途，以及一切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口不予批准。 (2026年2月24日) 列入关注名单的实体根据《中华人民共和国两用物项出口管制条例》第二十六条规定，履行配合核查义 务的，可申请移出关注名单。商务部核实后，可以将其移出关注名单。 同时，商务部还发布公告，将三菱造船株式会社等20家参与提升日本军事实力的实体列入管控名单。 13. 三井物产航空航天株式会社(Mitsui Bussan Aerospace Co., Ltd.) 关注名单 1. 斯巴鲁 ...

内容提要 2025年以来俄罗斯卢布兑美元大幅升值。在油价持续低迷且俄罗斯经济增长疲软的背景下，卢布升值的原因，一是俄通过增加非油气出口、资本管制等改善 了经常账户与资本账户平衡；二是俄紧缩货币政策、外汇市场干预等也支撑了卢布汇率。卢布升值对俄联邦财政收入和企业经营造成负面影响，进而削弱了 俄经济增长动能，降低了俄资产的吸引力。我国需关注强卢布可能给哈萨克斯坦等中亚国家带来的输入性通胀等外溢影响，并警惕其他新兴市场国家类似的 汇率波动风险。 一、卢布大幅升值、锚定油价逻辑失灵 一是俄罗斯外债下降，购汇偿债需求低。2020至2024年，俄国家外债占GDP比重从3.9%下降至2.6%。2025年前三季度俄国家外债进一步下降13%，至4.6万 亿卢布。而且俄罗斯政府以卢布替代外币偿还对非友好国家债务，并允许和鼓励俄罗斯企业以卢布债券替代此前发行的欧洲债券，俄罗斯政府和企业购汇偿 债的需求均下降。 俄罗斯卢布曾长期被视作"石油货币"，其币值与油价高度正相关，这主要是由于石油、天然气等长期是俄罗斯主要的出口产品，是俄罗斯外汇储备和财政收 入的最主要来源。但2025年以来，俄卢布汇率与油价走势大幅背离，卢布兑美元汇率较年初 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Securities Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index and its related ETF reflects the market dynamics and investment opportunities within the Greater Bay Area, with notable fluctuations in constituent stocks and trading activity [2][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 10, 2026, the China Securities Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) decreased by 0.01% [2]. - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) also saw a decline of 0.13%, with the latest price at 1.52 yuan [2]. - Over the past week, the Greater Bay Area ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.93% [2]. Group 2: Stock Movements - Among the constituent stocks, Zhao Chi Co. led with a gain of 9.96%, followed by Xinlitai with an increase of 6.88%, and Huitai Medical up by 5.15% [2]. - Conversely, Mingyang Smart Energy experienced the largest drop at 4.34%, followed by Xinwei Communication down 4.08%, and Jiejia Weichuang down 3.45% [2]. Group 3: Trading Activity - The trading volume for the Greater Bay Area ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 14.53% and a transaction value of 11.4673 million yuan [2]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.6276 million yuan [2]. Group 4: Risk and Return Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the Greater Bay Area ETF this year was 5.52%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [2]. - The Sharpe ratio for the Greater Bay Area ETF over the past year was reported at 1.41 as of February 6, 2026 [2]. Group 5: Fee Structure - The management fee for the Greater Bay Area ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [2]. Group 6: Index Composition - The index closely tracks companies benefiting from the Greater Bay Area's development, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 44.55% of the index [3]. - The top ten stocks include China Ping An, Luxshare Precision, BYD, and others, with varying weight percentages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Tianjin Customs is set to implement the "Tianjin Customs 24 Measures (2026 Version)" to enhance the city's high-level opening-up and support foreign trade development, following the successful implementation of the previous version [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "Tianjin Customs 24 Measures" will be officially released in early 2024, serving as a key driver for high-quality foreign trade development in Tianjin [1]. - In 2025, Tianjin's total import and export value reached 835.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and exports exceeded 400 billion for the first time, reaching 430.94 billion, a 10.1% increase [1]. Group 2: Focus Areas of the New Measures - The new measures will focus on five key areas, including the implementation of national strategies, development of new productive forces, construction of a pioneering reform and opening-up zone, building a modern socialist metropolis, and safeguarding national security [2][3][4]. Group 3: Specific Initiatives - The measures include support for technological innovation tax incentives, expansion of customs clearance for high-tech equipment, and facilitation of cross-border e-commerce [2][3]. - Initiatives to enhance the import and export processes for agricultural products, medical health industries, and high-end manufacturing sectors are also outlined [2][3]. - The establishment of a green channel for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries and the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative are part of the strategic focus [1][2]. Group 4: Security and Safety Measures - The measures emphasize strengthening border security, enhancing the ability to manage public health emergencies, and ensuring food safety at entry points [4].

2月6日上午，卓正医疗、大族数控在港交所敲钟上市，标志着深圳上市公司数量正式突破600家。其 中，境内上市公司426家，境外上市公司174家。截至2026年1月末，深圳上市公司总市值超过19万亿 元，稳居全国大中城市第二位。 上市公司数量与质量的比拼，本质是城市创新动能与金融生态的较量。深圳600家上市公司的跨越，不 仅是数字的突破，更是"科技-产业-金融"高效循环的生动实践，为国内城市发展提供了宝贵样本。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 与京沪相比，深圳的600家上市公司更具"民营底色"与"制造基因"。境内上市公司在"十四五"期间增长 超35%，北芯生命、大普微等"首单"企业，以及影石创新、卧安机器人等细分赛道龙头，共同勾勒出深 圳产业"既高又新"的图景。 境外上市同样捷报频传。近三年新增38家，港股市场表现尤为亮眼，27家新增港股企业首发募集资金总 额达295.73亿港元；超七成企业上市首日股价上涨，平均首日涨幅达26.22%。港股再融资表现强劲， 2025年再融资总额达554.66亿港元，同比大幅增长4710.58%，其中比亚迪单家再融资额超435.09亿港 元，占比超78 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/3 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4710.00 | 4711.00 | 4699.80 | 4655.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4582.20 | 4577.40 | 4540.00 | 4491.80 | | | 涨跌 | -136.20 | -142.20 | -167.60 | -170.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 ...

Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries rose and fell respectively, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened marginally, while the domestic interbank funding remained balanced. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds narrowed [1][22]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity has rebounded, with trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, military industry, chemicals, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has increased, with the military sector's volatility reaching above the 80th percentile [2][33]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][37]. Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, machinery, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with a rising trend in research heat for banking, petrochemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and building materials [3][44]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to increase [4][17]. - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, retail, home appliances, and real estate have also seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][21]. - Major indices including the ChiNext Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50 have had their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts raised, while the CSI 500 saw a decrease in its forecasts [4][23]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, although there has been a continued net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage has risen [5][31]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there were significant net purchases in sectors such as food and beverage, electricity, and public utilities, while net sales were observed in computing, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since mid-July 2025. The net purchases were mainly in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors, while net sales were seen in electronics, military, and computing sectors [6][35]. Long-Short Trading Activity - Long-short trading activity has continued to rise, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage showing relatively high trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have increased their positions in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and electronics, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, media, and food and beverage sectors [8][46]. - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth, as well as large/mid-cap value, has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has decreased [8][48].

Group 1 - The underlying logic of the non-ferrous metals, liquor, and large refining sectors is interconnected, driven by the anticipated liquidity from the Federal Reserve's QE in 2026, which is expected to enhance the super cycle of commodities [1][10] - The current investment in the large refining sector is likened to the investment in non-ferrous metals last year, with expectations of a significant price increase in oil and chemical products by 2026, following the patterns observed in the non-ferrous sector [2][14] - The "anti-involution" trend in China is contributing to the upward momentum in the large refining sector, as capital expenditure is being restrained, leading to a significant slowdown in new capacity additions and a clearing of inventories, which supports future price elasticity [3][16] Group 2 - The large refining sector is still at a low valuation level, with significant room for valuation recovery compared to the non-ferrous sector, which has already experienced a systematic valuation increase [4][21] - Recent inflows from public funds, foreign investments, and ETFs into the large refining sector indicate a timely opportunity for investment, as the sector is positioned for a major upward trend [6][27] - The upcoming Federal Reserve QE in 2026 is expected to create a favorable environment for the large refining sector, alongside the anticipated recovery in consumer demand and high-end manufacturing sectors [7][37]

1月30日，A股主要指数1月份集体上涨，沪指涨3.76%报4117.95点，深证成指涨5.03%报14205.89点，创业板指涨4.47%报 3346点；北证50指数涨6.33%，科创50指数涨12.29%。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 板块方面，近20个交易日涨幅前五的板块为：贵金属涨85.06%、油气开采及服务涨37.2%、小金属涨26.33%、工业金属涨 21.17%、半导体涨20.84%；同期，跌幅前五的板块为：机场航运跌4.76%、银行跌2.66%、汽车整车跌2.34%、汽车服务及 其他跌0.8%、证券跌0.27%。 个股方面，1月涨幅前五的个股为：C恒运昌涨352.74%、志特新材涨234.08%、锋龙股份涨213.97%、科马材料涨207.63%、 湖南白银涨175.14%；同期，跌幅前五的个股为：*ST奥维跌57.14%、*ST万方跌47.65%、天普股份跌44.16%、荣科科技跌 36.8%、森鹰窗业跌34.59%。 ...

Core Insights - The economic leap of Shandong, Beijing, and Dalian reflects a multi-dimensional picture of high-quality development in China's economy, showcasing not only a quantitative leap in economic scale but also the transformation and upgrading of the northern region's economy [1][3] Group 1: Economic Milestones - Shandong is set to become the third province in China and the first in the north to surpass a GDP of 10 trillion yuan by 2025, while Beijing will become the second city after Shanghai to reach a GDP of 5 trillion yuan, and Dalian will be the first city in Northeast China to achieve a GDP of 1 trillion yuan [1][2] - Since 2020, Shandong's economic growth has consistently outpaced the national average, with GDP increasing by three trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Group 2: Transformation Strategies - Shandong has initiated a significant transformation by focusing on new and old kinetic energy conversion, with high-tech industries expected to account for 55.3% of its industrial output by 2025 [2] - Beijing's economic growth is increasingly driven by technology and high-value-added industries, with R&D investment intensity remaining high at 6% [3] - Dalian is leveraging technological innovation to upgrade its industrial structure, maintaining a stable scale of 400 billion yuan in its green petrochemical industry [3] Group 3: Development Insights - The diverse paths to high-quality development emphasize the importance of localized strategies, as different regions have unique resources and industrial foundations [4] - The transformation and upgrading processes in these regions highlight the need for sustained efforts and strategic determination, indicating that such changes are not achieved overnight [4] - The development of these three cities transcends local limitations, contributing to national strategies and regional collaboration, thus enhancing their economic strength [4] Group 4: Regional Economic Balance - The breakthroughs in economic scale in Shandong, Beijing, and Dalian significantly enhance the overall strength of the northern economy, providing crucial support for balancing the economic disparities between the north and south of China [4]