Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has recently shown a rebound against the US dollar (USD), reaching a near two-week high at around 0.6065, influenced by a weaker USD and upcoming US non-farm payroll data that may guide short-term exchange rate direction [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The NZD is supported by a weaker USD, while market focus is on the forthcoming US employment data, which is crucial for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. - A strong performance in US employment data could reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively tight policy, thereby supporting the USD; conversely, weaker data may lead to speculation about a policy shift, putting pressure on the USD [3]. Group 2: Global Market Sentiment - Improved global market risk sentiment has reduced the safe-haven demand for the USD, benefiting currencies like the NZD that are closely tied to economic growth [3]. - Recent Chinese inflation data showing a slowdown in consumer price growth and continued contraction in producer prices indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, which may prompt supportive policies to stabilize the economy, positively influencing sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 3: Domestic Factors in New Zealand - Recent labor market data from New Zealand indicates a rise in the unemployment rate, which may weaken market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, thus limiting the NZD's upside potential [3]. - The NZD's movement is influenced by a balance of factors: the overall weakness of the USD and improved global sentiment provide support, while moderate domestic economic data and cautious sentiment ahead of significant external risk events act as constraints [3].

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently experiencing a stable trading range, with limited fluctuations observed around the 0.5780-0.5775 level, following a slight recovery from approximately 0.5800 [2] - Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] - The cautious outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regarding policy prospects may continue to support the NZD, contrasting with the easing tendencies of other major economies, which could help limit pressure on the NZD from interest rate differentials [2] Group 2 - The market's next focus is on the upcoming Chinese inflation data, which may influence investor demand for Southern Hemisphere currencies, including the NZD, and create short-term trading opportunities [3] - Overall, the NZD against the USD still possesses certain support, with a potential for a strong mid-term trend, suggesting that any temporary pullbacks in the exchange rate may be viewed as buying opportunities, with limited downside expected [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, China's CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - Core CPI in April remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, consistent with March[4] - Food CPI year-on-year increased by 1.2 percentage points to -0.2%, offsetting the decline in energy CPI[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - April's PPI year-on-year was -2.7%, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points from March[2] - Production materials PPI year-on-year was -3.1%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points, while living materials PPI was -1.6%, down by 0.1 percentage points[16] - PPI month-on-month in April was -0.4%, remaining below historical averages[21] Group 3: Future Projections - May's CPI is expected to fall to -0.3% year-on-year, with food prices projected to decrease by -0.5% month-on-month[26] - May's PPI is anticipated to decline to -3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%[26]