当前背景下，通胀水平仍高于2%的长期目标，这使市场倾向于判断短期内政策节奏将以"观望"为主。利率 路径的不确定性，往往会影响资金在主要货币之间的配置方向。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比近日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果通胀回落至2%目标，今年存在多次下调利率的 可能。他同时强调，在看到更加明确的数据证据前，不宜过度提前计入宽松预期。这一表态传递出的核心 信息是，未来政策空间仍然取决于通胀走势，而非单一时间表。市场在解读相关言论时，通常会结合就 业、物价和经济增长数据综合评估，从而形成对美元阶段性强弱的判断。 纽元表现相对平稳。市场对新西兰联储（RBNZ）短期是否加息仍有分歧，汇价波动未出现明显放大。此 前，新西兰联储行长安娜·布雷曼在货币政策声明中指出，经济有望在不触发明显通胀压力的情况下持续增 长。这一表态被视为政策态度趋于温和，鹰派预期有所降温。 从结构看，纽元兑美元走势受美元利率预期及新西兰经济表现共同影响。外部利率路径逐步清晰时，资金 在不同资产之间重新配置。美元阶段性走强背景下，只要政策节奏仍存分歧，非美货币仍可能出现技术性 修复。 纽元上涨0.16%至接近0.5990，美元指数在97.75附近运行，反映市场 ...

潜在的压力则来自美国方面。投资者正等待稍后公布的美国ISM制造业数据，以评估美国经济能否实现"软 着陆"。但更主要的关注点已转向货币政策领域。市场正消化有关美联储未来领导层变动的预期。特朗普 提名凯文·沃什为新任美联储主席的消息，促使交易员重新评估利率路径。沃什过往政策言论显示，他可能 支持更为"精简"的美联储资产负债表，并对降息持相对审慎态度。这种政策倾向与市场此前押注的快速转 向宽松有所出入，为美元提供了一层保护。 上周五公布的生产者价格指数为美元增添了另一份支撑。美国12月PPI同比上涨3.0%，环比上涨0.5%，两 项数据均显著高于市场预测。这份报告削弱了通胀正快速回落的乐观预期，向市场提示粘性通胀的风险依 然存在。数据公布后，市场对美联储首次降息时点的预期有所推迟。利率路径的修正对美元构成直接利 好，限制了纽元等风险货币的上行空间。 当前汇价呈现的平静是一种表象。其背后是两种逻辑的角力：一边是新西兰主要贸易伙伴的经济韧性所带 来的贸易链支撑，另一边是美国经济数据强劲与货币政策可能维持相对紧缩所引发的资本流动吸引力。这 种格局使得汇率对任何一方的数据意外都极为敏感。中国的PMI数据暂时为纽元守住阵地提 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various currency pairs and their respective support and resistance levels across different time frames, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels [1][2][3][5][7][9][11]. Group 2 - Key economic data and events to watch include China's December trade balance, OPEC's monthly oil report, and various U.S. economic indicators such as retail sales and PPI [13][14].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of various currency pairs, highlighting key support and resistance levels across different time frames, indicating potential trading strategies based on market signals. Currency Analysis US Dollar Index (DXY) - Monthly outlook is bearish with resistance at 101.70 - Weekly focus on closing resistance at 99 - Daily resistance noted at 98.25 - Short-term critical level between 98.40-50, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [1][9] USD/JPY - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 151 - Weekly support at 154.90 - Daily resistance at 156.30 - Short-term critical level between 156.70-80, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [1][9] USD/CAD - Monthly outlook is bearish with resistance at 1.3990 - Weekly resistance at 1.3900 - Daily support at 1.3730 - Short-term critical level between 1.3720-30, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [3][9] USD/CHF - Monthly outlook is bearish with support at 0.8320 - Weekly resistance at 0.7980 - Daily support at 0.7920 - Short-term critical level between 0.7920-30, maintaining a bullish stance until reversal signals appear [10][11] EUR/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 1.1270 - Weekly support at 1.1640 - Daily resistance at 1.1745 - Short-term critical level between 1.1720-30, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [11] GBP/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 1.3170 - Weekly support at 1.3310 - Daily resistance at 1.3345 - Short-term critical level between 1.3345-55, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [11][12] AUD/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 0.6450 - Weekly resistance at 0.6570 - Daily resistance at 0.6660 - Short-term critical level at 0.6690, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [12][13] NZD/USD - Monthly outlook is bullish with support at 0.6450 - Short-term critical level at 0.6690, maintaining a bearish stance until reversal signals appear [13] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be monitored on January 5, 2026, includes: 1. China's December RatingDog Services PMI at 09:45 2. Switzerland's November Actual Retail Sales Year-on-Year at 15:30 3. Eurozone's January Sentix Investor Confidence Index at 17:30 4. UK's November Bank of England Mortgage Approvals at 17:30 5. US's December ISM Manufacturing PMI at 23:00 6. Emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council at 23:00 [16][17]

周二亚洲早盘，纽元兑美元（NZD/USD）小幅走高，汇价在0.5805附近波动。 在纽元一侧，新西兰货币政策预期成为重要支撑因素。市场分析认为，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的降息周期可能已接近尾声。 该行在11月会议上将官方现金利率下调25个基点至2.25%，并表示未来是否继续调整利率，将取决于经济增长和通胀前景。这种 相对谨慎的政策立场，使得纽元在主要货币中表现相对稳定。 根据CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员预计美联储在明年1月会议上降息的概率约为16.1%。 这一概率虽不算高，但反映出部分资金已开始提前布局更长期的利率下行周期预期。在这种情绪影响下，美元指数难以获得明显 支撑，也为纽元等非美货币提供了阶段性上行空间。 即将公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要被视为短期内的重要观察点。投资者希望从中进一步了解决策层对通胀、经 济增长以及未来利率调整节奏的内部看法。不过，由于多数交易员已进入假期模式，整体市场反应可能相对有限，波动幅度预计 不会明显放大。 从美国经济数据来看，近期公布的部分指标表现尚可。11月美国待售房屋销售环比增长3.3%，高于10月修正后的2.4%，也显著 超过市场此前预期的 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index shows a long-term bearish trend with resistance levels at 101.70 (monthly), 98.90 (weekly), and 98.70 (daily) [1][12] - The USD/JPY pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 150.40 (monthly) and 153.8 (weekly), while resistance is at 155.80 (daily) [1][13] - The USD/CAD pair has a critical support zone between 1.3775-1.3855, maintaining a bullish outlook until a reversal signal appears [2][13] Group 2 - The EUR/USD pair shows a long-term bullish trend with support at 1.1180 (monthly) and resistance at 1.1640 (weekly) [3][17] - The GBP/USD pair has a long-term bullish outlook with support at 1.3100 (monthly) and resistance at 1.3300 (weekly) [6][18] - The AUD/USD pair indicates a long-term bullish trend with support at 0.6430 (monthly) and resistance at 0.6550 (weekly) [22] Group 3 - The NZD/USD pair has a critical resistance level at 0.6630, maintaining a bearish outlook until a reversal signal appears [21] - The USD/CHF pair shows a long-term bearish trend with support at 0.8390 (monthly) [13] - The economic data to be monitored includes China's one-year loan market quotation rate and the UK's Q3 GDP final value [11][23]

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is experiencing slight declines against the US dollar (USD) due to mixed fundamental factors, with a cautious market sentiment prevailing [1]. Group 1: Economic Influences - Recent macroeconomic data from China has negatively impacted the NZD, as China is a key trading partner for New Zealand, raising concerns about risk appetite for currencies like the NZD [1]. - The overall weakness in global stock markets has intensified risk aversion, leading to a shift of funds from risk assets to safe-haven assets, further pressuring the NZD/USD pair [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy stance is providing crucial support for the NZD, with Governor Adrian Orr indicating that the official cash rate will remain at 2.25% for an extended period if economic conditions align with expectations [2]. - This hawkish signal from the RBNZ contrasts with market expectations for the Federal Reserve, which anticipates potential rate cuts in 2026, giving the NZD a relative advantage [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent upward momentum of the USD is also constrained by expectations of a dovish successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, causing USD bulls to hesitate in making aggressive bets [4]. - Traders are closely monitoring two key signals: comments from core members of the Federal Open Market Committee and upcoming US consumer inflation data, which will shape market perceptions of future Federal Reserve policy [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators and capital flows suggest that the NZD is showing signs of bottom-fishing interest in the 0.5755 to 0.5760 range, limiting the extent of its recent pullback from a multi-month high of 0.5830 [6]. - The short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair will heavily depend on US inflation data and central bank policy signals, with ongoing competition between supportive policy divergence and risk sentiment suppression expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern [7].

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.04%, reaching 1.1757, following a V-shaped movement after the non-farm payroll report, but overall continued the earlier day's upward trend, hitting a high above 1.18 [1] - The British pound against the US dollar rose by 0.37%, reaching 1.3426, while the US dollar against the Swiss franc decreased by 0.19%, settling at 0.7947 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.09%, while the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar increased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar declined by 0.14% [1]

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently experiencing a stable trading range, with limited fluctuations observed around the 0.5780-0.5775 level, following a slight recovery from approximately 0.5800 [2] - Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] - The cautious outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regarding policy prospects may continue to support the NZD, contrasting with the easing tendencies of other major economies, which could help limit pressure on the NZD from interest rate differentials [2] Group 2 - The market's next focus is on the upcoming Chinese inflation data, which may influence investor demand for Southern Hemisphere currencies, including the NZD, and create short-term trading opportunities [3] - Overall, the NZD against the USD still possesses certain support, with a potential for a strong mid-term trend, suggesting that any temporary pullbacks in the exchange rate may be viewed as buying opportunities, with limited downside expected [3]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market showed mixed performance with the Euro and British Pound remaining stable against the US Dollar while commodity currencies experienced slight fluctuations [1] Currency Performance - Euro to US Dollar remained flat at 1.1597 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar remained flat at 1.3240 [1] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc increased by 0.06% to 0.8048 [1] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar rose by 0.23% [1] - New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar increased by 0.47% [1] - US Dollar to Canadian Dollar decreased by 0.10% [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - Swedish Krona to US Dollar increased by 0.20% [1] - Norwegian Krone to US Dollar rose by 0.42% [1] - Danish Krone to US Dollar remained stable [1] - Polish Zloty to US Dollar increased by 0.10% [1] - Hungarian Forint to US Dollar rose by 0.18% [1]