Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold T+D, and London gold all decreased compared to the previous week. The unexpected rise in the US July PPI data and the significant rebound in retail sales data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, while the meeting between Trump and Putin increased the expectation of a缓和 in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, jointly suppressing the gold price. This week, the gold price is expected to decline slightly, but in the long term, the overall upward trend of the gold price will not reverse without clear driving factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 15, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 775.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars/ounce from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai gold T+D was 773.09 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of London gold was 3335.28 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 63.30 US dollars/ounce from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Gold Basis - On August 15, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -0.70 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 8.65 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was -3.37 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3.1.3 Gold Price Spread between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Last week, the decline of the foreign gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. On Friday, the gold price spread between domestic and foreign markets was -8.91 yuan/gram, an increase from -12.48 yuan/gram the previous week. The decline of the crude oil price was slightly greater than that of the gold price, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of the silver price was less than that of the gold price, causing the gold - silver ratio to continue to decline; the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 3.1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the position of gold ETFs continued to increase slightly last week. As of August 15, the position of the world's largest SPDR gold ETF was 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly. In terms of futures positions, as of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the inventory of COMEX gold futures increased slightly last week, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 300 kilograms to 36,345 kilograms [13]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 3.2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that most US trade negotiations will be completed by October. The US July CPI was lower than expected, but the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The US July PPI increased significantly, reaching a three - year high. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month [17][19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - Last week, Fed officials spoke intensively, and most of them were cautious about the path of interest rate cuts. Some officials supported maintaining the current interest rate level, while others believed that it was necessary to see more data before making a decision. Only a few officials supported starting to ease monetary policy next month [28][29][30]. 3.2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Driven by the soaring service cost, the unexpected significant increase in the US July PPI data cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate and decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased by 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous week [31]. 3.2.4 US 10 - Year TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated and increased last week. The mild US July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, causing the US 10 - year TIPS yield to continue to decline. However, the significant increase in the PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the US 10 - year TIPS yield up. As of last Friday, the US 10 - year TIPS yield increased by 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous week [33]. 3.2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held talks, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington this week to seek security guarantees for Kiev. In the Middle East, Israel continues to attack Gaza [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, leading to a volatile correction in gold prices. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, gold T+D spot, and London gold spot all declined. Specifically, on August 15, the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 2.21% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price decreased 1.30% to 773.09 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price declined 1.86% to 3335.28 dollars/ounce [1]. - Gold prices are expected to decline slightly this week. The unexpectedly high July PPI data in the US implies potential inflation rebound, which may lead Powell to reaffirm a policy - wait - and - see attitude at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, weakening interest rate cut expectations and pressuring gold prices. Additionally, Trump will continue to promote a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and the possibility of a further increase in geopolitical risks is low. In the long run, without clear driving factors, the overall upward trend of gold prices will not reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 775.80 yuan/gram on August 15, down 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3381.70 dollars/ounce, down 76.50 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of Shanghai gold futures was - 1.28%, and that of COMEX gold futures was - 3.14% [4][5]. - Spot: The gold T+D spot price closed at 773.09 yuan/gram on August 15, down 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the London gold spot price closed at 3335.28 dollars/ounce, down 63.30 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of gold T+D was - 1.19%, and that of London gold was - 1.86% [4][5]. 1.2 Gold Basis - The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 0.70 dollars/ounce last Friday, rising 8.65 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 3.37 yuan/gram, falling 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - The foreign market gold price decline was greater than that of the domestic market last week. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 8.91 yuan/gram, rising from - 12.48 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of crude oil prices was slightly greater than that of gold prices, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of silver prices was less than that of gold, leading to a continuous decline in the gold - silver ratio; copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - Spot position: The gold ETF holdings continued to increase slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly, with the full - week cumulative trading volume at 151302 kilograms, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous week [13]. - Futures position: As of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory increased slightly last week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory continued to increase by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that "most" US trade negotiations will be completed by October. He expected to basically complete negotiations with countries without trade agreements by the end of October [17]. - The US July CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The July CPI increased 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%; the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.8% and the same as the previous value. The core CPI increased 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected value [19]. - The US July PPI soared month - on - month, reaching a three - year high. The year - on - year increase in PPI rose from 2.3% to 3.3%, well above the expected value of 2.5%; the month - on - month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. The core PPI also showed significant increases [20]. - The US July retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month. After excluding inflation, the real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year [21]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Most Fed officials were cautious about the interest rate cut path last week. Richmond Fed President Barkin was unsure whether to focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market; Kansas City Fed President Schmid supported maintaining interest rates; Atlanta Fed President thought one interest rate cut in 2025 was appropriate if the labor market remained robust; St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought it was too early to judge whether to support a September interest rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the Fed to start easing monetary policy next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee thought more data was needed to judge the inflation situation [28][29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The unexpectedly high US July PPI data cooled market expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated upward last week. The mild July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the yield to decline. However, the significant increase in PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the yield up. As of last Friday, the yield increased 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous Friday [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held a meeting, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. On August 18, European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington. In the Middle East, Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Hamas said it was a "new form of genocide" [36].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices showed a mild rebound in the Asian market on Friday, recovering some of the previous day's losses, although bullish momentum appears weak [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Strong U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) previously boosted the dollar, but this upward trend did not sustain [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, which is a key factor supporting gold prices [1] Group 2: Price Analysis - In the absence of sustained buying in the dollar and with stable expectations for Fed rate cuts, gold prices are likely to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term [3] - There is a need to be cautious of rising market risk sentiment that could weaken gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - If the support level of $3330 is breached, there could be significant downward space for gold prices [3] Group 3: Technical Levels - Current resistance levels are between $3356 and $3360, while support levels are between $3325 and $3320 [3] - The analysis suggests that the recent rebound is primarily a short-term fluctuation influenced by CPI data, without forming a trend reversal [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Suggests shorting at $3355 with a stop loss at $3365 and a target of $3325-$3315 [4] - Strategy 2: Suggests going long at $3322 with a stop loss at $3311 and a target of $3340-$3355 [5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to a phase ceasefire agreement reached between conflicting parties, which is expected to be implemented in stages [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded, the Israeli stock market reached a new high, and US stocks continued to perform strongly, indicating a recovery in overall risk appetite [1] - US inflation data for May showed both CPI and PPI below expectations, with core PPI growth at a one-year low, easing inflationary pressures and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of 3350, and further dropping to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The current price of gold is around 3332, with a focus on the support zone between 3318-3313; if this support holds, there may be a potential rally towards the 3400 mark [4] - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 3317-3311, with a stop loss at 3304 and a target range of 3340-3360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is adjusting its policy - making framework, zero - interest rate is no longer a base case, and 4 - month PCE is expected to drop to 2.2%. Japan seeks a third round of US - Japan trade talks next week, the US considers modifying the US - Japan trade agreement, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade negotiations with the EU hoping for a larger tariff cut than the UK. Russia - Ukraine talks are postponed to the 16th [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 750.00 yuan/gram, closed at 739.82 yuan/gram, down 2.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 744,074 lots, and the open interest was 211,188 lots. The night - session closed at 754.32 yuan/gram, up 1.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,090 yuan/kg, closed at 8,008 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 936,043 lots, and the open interest was 342,882 lots. The night - session closed at 8,134 yuan/kg, up 1.02% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.53%, with a 0.04% change from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.49%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On May 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 355 lots and short positions by 203 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 997,266 lots, up 59.43% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 2,151 lots and short positions increased by 2,830 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,477,415 lots, down 43.78% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 927.62 tons, down 4.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,971.47 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On May 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 23.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 260.54 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 92.39, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 98.20, with a - 0.16% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 79,414 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 974,352 kg, up 144.37% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,224 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 49,560 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. The US is reaching trade agreements with multiple countries or regions, and Trump's previous tariff policy has changed, leading to a rise in risk - on sentiment and a decline in gold prices. Gold may seek support at the monthly - line level (around 710 yuan/gram). It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. Silver: Although silver has also declined, it may be slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to correct. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]