Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has recently shown a rebound against the US dollar (USD), reaching a near two-week high at around 0.6065, influenced by a weaker USD and upcoming US non-farm payroll data that may guide short-term exchange rate direction [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The NZD is supported by a weaker USD, while market focus is on the forthcoming US employment data, which is crucial for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. - A strong performance in US employment data could reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively tight policy, thereby supporting the USD; conversely, weaker data may lead to speculation about a policy shift, putting pressure on the USD [3]. Group 2: Global Market Sentiment - Improved global market risk sentiment has reduced the safe-haven demand for the USD, benefiting currencies like the NZD that are closely tied to economic growth [3]. - Recent Chinese inflation data showing a slowdown in consumer price growth and continued contraction in producer prices indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, which may prompt supportive policies to stabilize the economy, positively influencing sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 3: Domestic Factors in New Zealand - Recent labor market data from New Zealand indicates a rise in the unemployment rate, which may weaken market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, thus limiting the NZD's upside potential [3]. - The NZD's movement is influenced by a balance of factors: the overall weakness of the USD and improved global sentiment provide support, while moderate domestic economic data and cautious sentiment ahead of significant external risk events act as constraints [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is experiencing short-term fluctuations, with the dollar showing strength due to multiple favorable factors, leading to ongoing downward pressure on the currency pair [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Strength - The recent strengthening of the dollar is primarily suppressing the Euro/USD exchange rate [3]. - The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the U.S. indicates persistent inflationary pressures, with December PPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, matching November's growth and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.7% [3]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased to 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.9%, confirming ongoing upstream price pressures [3]. - Strong inflation data reinforces the Federal Reserve's current policy stance, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials further solidify market expectations regarding policy, with the St. Louis Fed President indicating that the current policy rate range of 3.50%-3.75% is generally neutral and does not require further cuts [3]. Group 2: Euro Support Factors - The economic resilience in the Eurozone and Germany provides temporary support for the Euro, mitigating the downward pressure on the Euro/USD exchange rate [3][4]. - Preliminary data from the European Statistical Office shows that the Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, matching the growth rate of Q3 and exceeding the market expectation of a 1.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The Eurozone unemployment rate slightly decreased from 6.3% to 6.2% in December, indicating an improving labor market that supports consumption recovery and economic growth [4]. - Germany's economy, as a key pillar of the Eurozone, also grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, moving away from zero growth in Q3, with year-on-year growth exceeding expectations and previous values [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a weekly high but managed to hold above the critical $4200 level before entering the European trading session, indicating a bearish trend influenced by a slight rebound in the US dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish policy outlook may limit the dollar's appreciation potential, providing support for gold amid ongoing market uncertainty [2] - The Fed announced a 25 basis point cut in borrowing costs and indicated only one rate cut is expected by 2026, which has led to a reassessment of future rate cut possibilities in the market [2] Group 2 - Market risk sentiment has shifted, leading to a withdrawal from safe-haven assets, which has been a key factor in the decline of gold prices [3] - Gold remains a preferred safe-haven asset for investors amid economic data fluctuations and market sentiment volatility, with support at the $4200 level [4] - If gold prices break below the $4200 support, a deeper correction may occur, particularly in the $4170-$4165 range, which could become a new support level [4] Group 3 - Should gold prices decline further, the $4125-$4120 range may also provide support, coinciding with the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and the upward trend line from late October [6] - A rebound may occur if gold finds support in this area; however, a break below could lead to further declines [6] - The $4245-$4250 range represents a key resistance level, and a sustained breakout above this could challenge the mid-term resistance at $4277-$4278, potentially pushing towards the $4300 mark [6]

Core Insights - Gold prices surged significantly during the Asian trading session on November 20, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid volatile U.S. stock markets and the anticipation of important U.S. economic data [1] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders and investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and the labor department's employment report, which are expected to provide insights into the future direction of U.S. interest rates [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has surpassed 24, indicating heightened market anxiety and reaching a one-month high [3] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, influenced by moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The prolonged government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, leading to concerns that upcoming reports may restrict the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy further [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the likelihood now below 50%, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment compared to earlier predictions [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in rate cut expectations partly to the data scarcity caused by the government shutdown and ongoing concerns about inflation impacts from trade tensions [4] Gold Market Analysis - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of the historical high of $4,398.00, while the short-term bearish target is to push prices below the solid technical support of $4,000.00 [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150.00 and $4,200.00, with initial support at the overnight low of $4,056.10 and subsequently at $4,000.00 [5] - A dovish tone from the Fed's minutes could propel gold prices to test around $4,300.00 [5]

Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), suggesting a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, recommending a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), meaning a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, advising a wait - and - see attitude [5][6] - Asphalt: Bearish (represented by three green stars), indicating a clearer downward trend and a relatively appropriate short - selling investment opportunity [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral (represented by white stars), showing a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [5][6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices declined overnight, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuate following the trend of the crude oil end, with the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to widen. The price of asphalt dropped, and the market bearish sentiment deepened. The LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC12 contract dropping 0.32% during the day. The U.S. government shutdown is about to break the 2018 - 2019 record, suppressing market risk sentiment. Last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 6.521 million barrels more than expected, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuate following the crude oil end. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened relative to high - sulfur fuel oil recently. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has increased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward momentum is expected to be limited. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market has basically digested the expected reduction in Russian supply, and the mid - term supply tends to be loose. Overall, the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to widen [2] Asphalt - The BU price dropped today, with the main contract falling 1.6%. Construction in the north is gradually coming to a halt, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The fundamentals show multiple bearish signals, and the market bearish sentiment has deepened, causing the BU price to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The previous upward trend of the LPG futures market has ended, and today's main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased. The improvement in chemical profit has increased demand, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant temperature drops in many places. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, while the port storage capacity ratio increased. The international oil price shows a weakening upward trend, and the LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]