随着市场风险情绪回升，资金流出避险资产，转向其他领域，这成为黄金价格回落的关键因素。 本周四早些时候，黄金价格触及了周内的高点，但在进入欧洲交易时段前成功守住了4200美元的关键关口。 黄金依然保持着看跌的基调，面临着美元小幅反弹的压力。美元在美联储（Fed）议息会议后的跌势暂缓，并从10月24日以来的低点小幅反弹，成为金价下 行的主要压力。 美元有所回升，美联储鸽派的政策前景可能抑制美元升值空间，为黄金提供支撑。市场的不确定性依然较高，继续为黄金带来避险需求。 XAU/USD的空头应保持谨慎，当前金价受到支撑，但仍可能面临更深的调整。 在本周的美联储议息会议中，联储宣布将借款成本下调25个基点，并预计2026年只会有一次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的讲话中强调，美国劳动力市场 存在下行风险，央行希望避免过度紧缩影响就业创造，这促使市场重新评估未来降息的可能性。 鲍威尔的鸽派言论令美元指数创下10月24日以来的新低，同时推动黄金价格攀升。 市场对美联储未来政策的解读偏向宽松，但鲍威尔未透露具体降息时间表，且未来降息的道路预计更加艰难。美联储决策中有鹰派委员反对，进一步加剧了 市场对美联储未来政策的不确定性，为 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices surged significantly during the Asian trading session on November 20, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid volatile U.S. stock markets and the anticipation of important U.S. economic data [1] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders and investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and the labor department's employment report, which are expected to provide insights into the future direction of U.S. interest rates [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has surpassed 24, indicating heightened market anxiety and reaching a one-month high [3] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, influenced by moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The prolonged government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, leading to concerns that upcoming reports may restrict the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy further [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the likelihood now below 50%, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment compared to earlier predictions [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in rate cut expectations partly to the data scarcity caused by the government shutdown and ongoing concerns about inflation impacts from trade tensions [4] Gold Market Analysis - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of the historical high of $4,398.00, while the short-term bearish target is to push prices below the solid technical support of $4,000.00 [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150.00 and $4,200.00, with initial support at the overnight low of $4,056.10 and subsequently at $4,000.00 [5] - A dovish tone from the Fed's minutes could propel gold prices to test around $4,300.00 [5]

Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), suggesting a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, recommending a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), meaning a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, advising a wait - and - see attitude [5][6] - Asphalt: Bearish (represented by three green stars), indicating a clearer downward trend and a relatively appropriate short - selling investment opportunity [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral (represented by white stars), showing a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [5][6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices declined overnight, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuate following the trend of the crude oil end, with the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to widen. The price of asphalt dropped, and the market bearish sentiment deepened. The LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC12 contract dropping 0.32% during the day. The U.S. government shutdown is about to break the 2018 - 2019 record, suppressing market risk sentiment. Last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 6.521 million barrels more than expected, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuate following the crude oil end. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened relative to high - sulfur fuel oil recently. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has increased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward momentum is expected to be limited. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market has basically digested the expected reduction in Russian supply, and the mid - term supply tends to be loose. Overall, the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to widen [2] Asphalt - The BU price dropped today, with the main contract falling 1.6%. Construction in the north is gradually coming to a halt, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The fundamentals show multiple bearish signals, and the market bearish sentiment has deepened, causing the BU price to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The previous upward trend of the LPG futures market has ended, and today's main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased. The improvement in chemical profit has increased demand, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant temperature drops in many places. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, while the port storage capacity ratio increased. The international oil price shows a weakening upward trend, and the LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold T+D, and London gold all decreased compared to the previous week. The unexpected rise in the US July PPI data and the significant rebound in retail sales data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, while the meeting between Trump and Putin increased the expectation of a缓和 in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, jointly suppressing the gold price. This week, the gold price is expected to decline slightly, but in the long term, the overall upward trend of the gold price will not reverse without clear driving factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 15, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 775.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars/ounce from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai gold T+D was 773.09 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of London gold was 3335.28 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 63.30 US dollars/ounce from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Gold Basis - On August 15, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -0.70 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 8.65 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was -3.37 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3.1.3 Gold Price Spread between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Last week, the decline of the foreign gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. On Friday, the gold price spread between domestic and foreign markets was -8.91 yuan/gram, an increase from -12.48 yuan/gram the previous week. The decline of the crude oil price was slightly greater than that of the gold price, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of the silver price was less than that of the gold price, causing the gold - silver ratio to continue to decline; the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 3.1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the position of gold ETFs continued to increase slightly last week. As of August 15, the position of the world's largest SPDR gold ETF was 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly. In terms of futures positions, as of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the inventory of COMEX gold futures increased slightly last week, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 300 kilograms to 36,345 kilograms [13]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 3.2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that most US trade negotiations will be completed by October. The US July CPI was lower than expected, but the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The US July PPI increased significantly, reaching a three - year high. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month [17][19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - Last week, Fed officials spoke intensively, and most of them were cautious about the path of interest rate cuts. Some officials supported maintaining the current interest rate level, while others believed that it was necessary to see more data before making a decision. Only a few officials supported starting to ease monetary policy next month [28][29][30]. 3.2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Driven by the soaring service cost, the unexpected significant increase in the US July PPI data cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate and decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased by 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous week [31]. 3.2.4 US 10 - Year TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated and increased last week. The mild US July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, causing the US 10 - year TIPS yield to continue to decline. However, the significant increase in the PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the US 10 - year TIPS yield up. As of last Friday, the US 10 - year TIPS yield increased by 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous week [33]. 3.2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held talks, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington this week to seek security guarantees for Kiev. In the Middle East, Israel continues to attack Gaza [36].