若数据表现强劲，可能强化对美联储维持相对紧缩政策的预期，从而支撑美元；反之，若数据不及预 期，则可能巩固对政策转向的猜测，令美元承压。在数据公布前，这种不确定性令美元指数维持在一周 多以来的低位附近徘徊。 全球市场风险情绪的改善，也在一定程度上降低了美元的避险需求，这对新西兰元等与经济增长关联度 较高的货币构成利好。 这一因素部分抵消了中国近期通胀数据带来的影响。数据显示中国消费者价格涨幅有所放缓，生产者价 格则延续收缩态势，反映出内需仍有待加强，部分领域面临价格下行压力。 新西兰元兑美元汇率在近期交易中呈现反弹走势。周三亚洲时段，汇率升至近两周高位，现货价格交投 于0.6065附近。 当前美元走势偏弱，为新西兰元提供了支撑，但市场参与者的注意力普遍集中于即将公布的美国非农就 业数据，该数据可能为短期汇率方向提供关键指引。 美国月度就业数据受到广泛关注，因其直接影响市场对美联储货币政策路径的预期。目前市场对利率政 策的预期已有所调整，并部分反映在资产价格中。 从新西兰国内因素看，最新公布的劳动力市场数据显示失业率有所上升。这一变化可能使市场对新西兰 储备银行进一步加息的预期减弱，从而在一定程度上限制新西兰元的 ...

欧元区及德国的经济复苏韧性，为欧元提供阶段性支撑，有效缓解欧元/美元下行幅度。欧洲统计局周五发布的初步数据显示，2025年第四季度欧元区经济 环比增长0.3%，增速与第三季度持平，且高于市场预期的1.2%同比增速，经济复苏节奏保持平稳。 12月欧元区失业率从6.3%微降至6.2%，就业市场供需结构持续优化，为消费复苏及经济增长提供基础。德国作为欧元区经济支柱，第四季度经济环比增长 0.3%，摆脱第三季度零增长态势，同比增速同步高于预期及前值，核心经济体的复苏动能进一步巩固欧元汇率支撑。 目前欧元/美元短期处于多空博弈格局。美元受通胀数据、美联储政策立场及风险情绪改善的支撑，而欧元则依托欧元区及德国的经济复苏动能获得支撑。 周一亚市交易中，欧元/美元汇率虽以下跌缺口开盘，但随后适度回升，逐步靠近1.1840关口，展现出短期震荡整理态势。不过，多重利好因素支撑美元走 强，使得该货币对后续仍面临下行压力，短期走势呈现多空博弈的复杂特征。 美元阶段性走强是压制欧元/美元走势的核心变量。美国最新公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）数据印证通胀压力未改，12月PPI同比增长3.0%，与11月增速持 平，显著高于市场预期的2.7 ...

随着市场风险情绪回升，资金流出避险资产，转向其他领域，这成为黄金价格回落的关键因素。 本周四早些时候，黄金价格触及了周内的高点，但在进入欧洲交易时段前成功守住了4200美元的关键关口。 黄金依然保持着看跌的基调，面临着美元小幅反弹的压力。美元在美联储（Fed）议息会议后的跌势暂缓，并从10月24日以来的低点小幅反弹，成为金价下 行的主要压力。 美元有所回升，美联储鸽派的政策前景可能抑制美元升值空间，为黄金提供支撑。市场的不确定性依然较高，继续为黄金带来避险需求。 XAU/USD的空头应保持谨慎，当前金价受到支撑，但仍可能面临更深的调整。 在本周的美联储议息会议中，联储宣布将借款成本下调25个基点，并预计2026年只会有一次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的讲话中强调，美国劳动力市场 存在下行风险，央行希望避免过度紧缩影响就业创造，这促使市场重新评估未来降息的可能性。 鲍威尔的鸽派言论令美元指数创下10月24日以来的新低，同时推动黄金价格攀升。 市场对美联储未来政策的解读偏向宽松，但鲍威尔未透露具体降息时间表，且未来降息的道路预计更加艰难。美联储决策中有鹰派委员反对，进一步加剧了 市场对美联储未来政策的不确定性，为 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices surged significantly during the Asian trading session on November 20, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid volatile U.S. stock markets and the anticipation of important U.S. economic data [1] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders and investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and the labor department's employment report, which are expected to provide insights into the future direction of U.S. interest rates [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has surpassed 24, indicating heightened market anxiety and reaching a one-month high [3] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, influenced by moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The prolonged government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, leading to concerns that upcoming reports may restrict the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy further [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the likelihood now below 50%, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment compared to earlier predictions [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in rate cut expectations partly to the data scarcity caused by the government shutdown and ongoing concerns about inflation impacts from trade tensions [4] Gold Market Analysis - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of the historical high of $4,398.00, while the short-term bearish target is to push prices below the solid technical support of $4,000.00 [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150.00 and $4,200.00, with initial support at the overnight low of $4,056.10 and subsequently at $4,000.00 [5] - A dovish tone from the Fed's minutes could propel gold prices to test around $4,300.00 [5]

Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), suggesting a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, recommending a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), meaning a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, advising a wait - and - see attitude [5][6] - Asphalt: Bearish (represented by three green stars), indicating a clearer downward trend and a relatively appropriate short - selling investment opportunity [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral (represented by white stars), showing a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [5][6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices declined overnight, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuate following the trend of the crude oil end, with the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to widen. The price of asphalt dropped, and the market bearish sentiment deepened. The LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC12 contract dropping 0.32% during the day. The U.S. government shutdown is about to break the 2018 - 2019 record, suppressing market risk sentiment. Last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 6.521 million barrels more than expected, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuate following the crude oil end. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened relative to high - sulfur fuel oil recently. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has increased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward momentum is expected to be limited. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market has basically digested the expected reduction in Russian supply, and the mid - term supply tends to be loose. Overall, the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to widen [2] Asphalt - The BU price dropped today, with the main contract falling 1.6%. Construction in the north is gradually coming to a halt, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The fundamentals show multiple bearish signals, and the market bearish sentiment has deepened, causing the BU price to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The previous upward trend of the LPG futures market has ended, and today's main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased. The improvement in chemical profit has increased demand, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant temperature drops in many places. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, while the port storage capacity ratio increased. The international oil price shows a weakening upward trend, and the LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]