市场风险情绪与降息预期波动，上周金价震荡回调 黄金周报（2025.8.11-2025.8.17） 核心观点 市场风险情绪与降息预期波动，上周金价震荡回调。上周五 （8 月 15 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五回落 1.52%至 775.80 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五下跌 2.21%至 3381.70 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 1.30% 至 773.09 元/克，伦敦金现货价格下跌 1.86%至 3335.28 美元 /盎司。具体来看，上周一（8 月 11 日）美国总统特朗普表示 不对黄金征收关税，这使得此前由黄金进口关税传闻引发的市 场动荡得到平息，金价大幅回落。周二公布的美国 7 月 CPI 数 据较为温和，市场降息预期升温支撑金价反弹。不过，随后公 布的美国 7 月 PPI 数据意外上涨、零售销售数据显著回升，打 压降息预期，带动美债利率大幅上行，加之特朗普与普京会谈 结果提高了俄乌冲突缓和的预期，市场风险情绪回落，共同对 金价形成压制。整体来看，上周金价波动下行。 本周（8 月 18 日当周）金价料将小幅下行。考虑到美国 7 月 PPI 数据意外超预期，暗示 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, leading to a volatile correction in gold prices. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, gold T+D spot, and London gold spot all declined. Specifically, on August 15, the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 2.21% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price decreased 1.30% to 773.09 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price declined 1.86% to 3335.28 dollars/ounce [1]. - Gold prices are expected to decline slightly this week. The unexpectedly high July PPI data in the US implies potential inflation rebound, which may lead Powell to reaffirm a policy - wait - and - see attitude at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, weakening interest rate cut expectations and pressuring gold prices. Additionally, Trump will continue to promote a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and the possibility of a further increase in geopolitical risks is low. In the long run, without clear driving factors, the overall upward trend of gold prices will not reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 775.80 yuan/gram on August 15, down 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3381.70 dollars/ounce, down 76.50 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of Shanghai gold futures was - 1.28%, and that of COMEX gold futures was - 3.14% [4][5]. - Spot: The gold T+D spot price closed at 773.09 yuan/gram on August 15, down 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the London gold spot price closed at 3335.28 dollars/ounce, down 63.30 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of gold T+D was - 1.19%, and that of London gold was - 1.86% [4][5]. 1.2 Gold Basis - The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 0.70 dollars/ounce last Friday, rising 8.65 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 3.37 yuan/gram, falling 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - The foreign market gold price decline was greater than that of the domestic market last week. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 8.91 yuan/gram, rising from - 12.48 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of crude oil prices was slightly greater than that of gold prices, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of silver prices was less than that of gold, leading to a continuous decline in the gold - silver ratio; copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - Spot position: The gold ETF holdings continued to increase slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly, with the full - week cumulative trading volume at 151302 kilograms, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous week [13]. - Futures position: As of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory increased slightly last week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory continued to increase by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that "most" US trade negotiations will be completed by October. He expected to basically complete negotiations with countries without trade agreements by the end of October [17]. - The US July CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The July CPI increased 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%; the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.8% and the same as the previous value. The core CPI increased 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected value [19]. - The US July PPI soared month - on - month, reaching a three - year high. The year - on - year increase in PPI rose from 2.3% to 3.3%, well above the expected value of 2.5%; the month - on - month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. The core PPI also showed significant increases [20]. - The US July retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month. After excluding inflation, the real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year [21]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Most Fed officials were cautious about the interest rate cut path last week. Richmond Fed President Barkin was unsure whether to focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market; Kansas City Fed President Schmid supported maintaining interest rates; Atlanta Fed President thought one interest rate cut in 2025 was appropriate if the labor market remained robust; St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought it was too early to judge whether to support a September interest rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the Fed to start easing monetary policy next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee thought more data was needed to judge the inflation situation [28][29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The unexpectedly high US July PPI data cooled market expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated upward last week. The mild July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the yield to decline. However, the significant increase in PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the yield up. As of last Friday, the yield increased 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous Friday [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held a meeting, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. On August 18, European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington. In the Middle East, Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Hamas said it was a "new form of genocide" [36].

操作策略1：建议反弹3355做空，损3365，目标3325-3315。 在周五的亚盘黄金价格呈现出温和反弹态势，逐步收复前一日的部分跌幅，不过多头力量略显疲态，反弹动能并不强劲。此前，强劲的 美国生产者物价指数（PPI）曾推动美元上涨，但这一涨势未能持续。当下市场普遍预期美联储将于9月重启降息周期，这成为支撑黄金 价格的关键因素。 目前来看，在美元缺乏持续买盘、美联储降息预期稳定的背景下，金价短期内大概率维持区间震荡格局。不过需警惕市场风险情绪升温 对黄金避险属性的削弱。若3330美元支撑位失守，金价下行空间将大幅打开。综合消息面与技术面分析，黄金此次反弹多为CPI数据影 响下的短期波动，未形成趋势性反转。目前上方阻力在3356-3360，下方支撑在3325-3320，下周操作徐老师建议反弹做空为主，回调做 多为辅。 本文由徐老师分析团队策划编辑，笔者解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球外汇趋势！对黄金操作不够理想的朋友，可以与徐老师沟通交流， 学习看盘分析，获取实时指导。以上分析内容仅供参考，不构成具操作，盈亏自负，投资有风险，入市需谨慎） 操作策略2：建议回调3322做多，损3311，目标3340-3355。 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to a phase ceasefire agreement reached between conflicting parties, which is expected to be implemented in stages [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded, the Israeli stock market reached a new high, and US stocks continued to perform strongly, indicating a recovery in overall risk appetite [1] - US inflation data for May showed both CPI and PPI below expectations, with core PPI growth at a one-year low, easing inflationary pressures and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of 3350, and further dropping to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The current price of gold is around 3332, with a focus on the support zone between 3318-3313; if this support holds, there may be a potential rally towards the 3400 mark [4] - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 3317-3311, with a stop loss at 3304 and a target range of 3340-3360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is adjusting its policy - making framework, zero - interest rate is no longer a base case, and 4 - month PCE is expected to drop to 2.2%. Japan seeks a third round of US - Japan trade talks next week, the US considers modifying the US - Japan trade agreement, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade negotiations with the EU hoping for a larger tariff cut than the UK. Russia - Ukraine talks are postponed to the 16th [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 750.00 yuan/gram, closed at 739.82 yuan/gram, down 2.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 744,074 lots, and the open interest was 211,188 lots. The night - session closed at 754.32 yuan/gram, up 1.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,090 yuan/kg, closed at 8,008 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 936,043 lots, and the open interest was 342,882 lots. The night - session closed at 8,134 yuan/kg, up 1.02% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.53%, with a 0.04% change from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.49%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On May 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 355 lots and short positions by 203 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 997,266 lots, up 59.43% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 2,151 lots and short positions increased by 2,830 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,477,415 lots, down 43.78% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 927.62 tons, down 4.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,971.47 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On May 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 23.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 260.54 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 92.39, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 98.20, with a - 0.16% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 79,414 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 974,352 kg, up 144.37% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,224 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 49,560 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. The US is reaching trade agreements with multiple countries or regions, and Trump's previous tariff policy has changed, leading to a rise in risk - on sentiment and a decline in gold prices. Gold may seek support at the monthly - line level (around 710 yuan/gram). It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. Silver: Although silver has also declined, it may be slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to correct. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has rebounded due to the Sino-US trade agreement, causing the prices of precious metals to come under pressure. The Fed is temporarily on hold, while other central banks may cut interest rates. Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, but a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds [1][8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement announced that each side would cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% of tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barrier issues. Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and believes tariffs will have a significant impact [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 12, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 790.16 yuan/gram and closed at 772.28 yuan/gram, down 2.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 608,130 lots, and the open interest was 210,772 lots. The night - session closed at 760.70 yuan/gram, down 2.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,180 yuan/kg and closed at 8,232 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 482,373 lots, and the open interest was 204,592 lots. The night - session closed at 8,145 yuan/kg, down 0.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 12, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.37%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 1,747 lots, and short positions changed by 113 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 830,740 lots, down 11.57% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 883 lots, and short positions increased by 597 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,137,536 lots, down 17.77% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 939.05 tons, up 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,025.45 tons, up 8.49 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 436.01 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 93.81, down 2.81% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 101.25, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 81,162 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 477,976 kg, up 2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,838 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 25,710 kg [7] Strategy - Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, and a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds. Attention should be paid to position and stop - loss control when trading silver [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - **Domestic**: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - **Mineral End**: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - **Consumption**: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]