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格林大华期货早盘提示:铁矿-20251128
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On Thursday, iron ore closed up and closed down at night [1] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% The total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [1] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work with relevant departments to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 855,710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7% The total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25% The weekly consumption was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 2.3% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - During the policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December This week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 160,000 tons The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [1] Trading Strategy - Maintain the view that the short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示:钢材-20251128
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the macro - policy vacuum period, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and during the night session, rebar closed up while hot - rolled coils closed down [2] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [2] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost assessment of disorderly price competition [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7%; the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25%; the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [2] - In December 2025, the production plan of household air conditioners was 14.11 million units, a 22.3% decrease compared with the actual figure of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 8.13 million units, a decrease of 8.2%; the production plan of washing machines was 7.94 million units, a decrease of 1.9% [2] Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. This week, rebar production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand were both weak [2] Trading Strategy - Maintain the previous view: rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate. The first pressure level for the rebar main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level is still a strong support. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or hold an empty position [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示:铁矿-20251127
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 02:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects the iron ore market to be mainly in a volatile state in the short - term. The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Ore Market Conditions - In the night session on Wednesday, iron ore closed down [3]. Important Information - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [3]. - On November 26, 5 steel enterprises, including Henan Minyuan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., carried out the publicity of the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. So far, 230 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [3]. - On November 25, the Shanghai Clearing House completed the optimization of the agreement elements of the RMB iron ore swap central counterparty clearing business. The RMB iron ore swap is based on the average spot price of imported iron ore (60.8% grade PB powder) at Rizhao and Qingdao ports, with cash settlement and denominated, cleared, and settled in RMB [3]. Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. According to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of screw coils and five major steel products decreased this week. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3628 million tons, and a reduction is expected this week. The arrival of domestic iron ore is low, but the shipment is active. The foreign port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter [3]. Trading Strategy - The view remains unchanged: it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. The upper important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3].