国信期货研究所 真实需求走弱 煤焦承压运行 ----国信期货焦煤焦炭周报 2025年12月14日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 双焦行情回顾 4 后市展望 2 宏观及政策 3 基本面概况 国信期货研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 双焦行情回顾 国信期货研究所 数据来源：文华财经 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 宏观及政策 2.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 1. 国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。从分类指数看， 在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员 指数均低于临界点。生产指数为50.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业生产总体稳定。新订单指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro data shows that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote work to manage price disorderly competition [1]. - The fundamental data indicates that last week, the output of rebar was 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the apparent demand was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil was 3.19 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. Overall, the industrial data last week was weak, with the output of the five major steel products increasing, the apparent demand remaining weak, and inventory continuing to decline [1]. - Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, inventory reduction provides support, but costs are weakening. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3110 | 21 | 0.68% | 6312460 | 2463988 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3302 | 7 | 0.21% | 1917388 | 876319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | 1179508 | 414346 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1067.0 | - 29.5 | - 2.69% | 5442929 | 862195 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1574.5 | - 58.0 | - 3.55% | 122587 | 48293 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating rebound. Steel inventory continued to decline, with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply contracted, leading to a rebound in futures prices, but the terminal market remained weak, with significant upward pressure [4]. - In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (unchanged) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+10) Yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The deputy director of the Building Energy Efficiency and Technology Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that urban renewal should be given more prominence and the construction of "four good" aspects should be systematically promoted [9]. - In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million units, with a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars reached 1.288 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [9]. - From November 17th to November 23rd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9193 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 36.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% [9]. - Six departments issued an implementation plan, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and create a number of high - quality consumer goods [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on price disorderly competition cost identification. It will promote work to manage price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [9]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [9]. Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts related to the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [7][10][12]

Group 1: Industrial Profit and Economic Indicators - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was -5.5%, down from 21.6%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth[4] - The industrial added value year-on-year growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous period[4] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3%[4] - The operating income profit margin fell from 18.7% to -5.7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a high base effect from last year[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the "Black Friday" shopping season, 1.87 billion consumers are expected to participate, a record high, but average planned spending decreased by 4% to $622[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low[7] - In November, the PMI marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal factors, with price indices performing better than recent futures market prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Policy Responses - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export fluctuations and profit declines[3] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing consumer supply and demand compatibility through a new implementation plan aimed at optimizing consumption structures by 2027[19] - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 12.5% from 34,800 yuan/ton to 39,100 yuan/ton due to regulatory measures against price competition[15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils may fluctuate strongly. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and China's governance of disorderly corporate price competition on the macro - front, along with increased hot - rolled coil production, slightly reduced but resilient terminal demand, and positive macro expectations, support steel prices. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton (+32), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton (+0). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 319.01 million tons (+3), a year - on - year increase of 12.92 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 320.22 million tons (-4.2), a year - on - year increase of 3.13 million tons. - Factory inventory remained flat, and social inventory decreased. The total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21), a year - on - year increase of 95.18 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 16.89 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "maintain unchanged". After Williams and Waller supported a rate cut, the market probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 81.49%, higher than the same period last year. Terminal demand slightly declined, but the apparent demand remained at 3.2 million tons, higher than the same period last year, and inventory decreased. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, due to positive macro expectations, ore prices remain strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract fluctuated strongly, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and breaking through the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis, and the red column is stable [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2601 contract was range - bound. The price of the HC2601 contract was stronger than that of the HC2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On November 28, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 141,932 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,156 tons. - On November 28, the net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 63,178 contracts, an increase of 3,385 contracts from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On November 28, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton. - This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. - On November 28, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. 3.3.2. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 billion tons. The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.713 billion tons. - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.696 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.383 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 billion tons [37]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.0122 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons. - On November 27, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1476 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.2478 million tons [41]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02%, an increase of 0.92%. The daily coke output was 504,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. The coke inventory was 452,100 tons, an increase of 177,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.6093 million tons, a decrease of 0.2829 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [45]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply - side: Steel Export and Production - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 3.4.2. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Production - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0081 million tons. - On November 27, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.1901 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week and an increase of 0.1295 million tons from the same period last year [52]. 3.4.3. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - On November 27, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 780,200 tons, an increase of 0 tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.2288 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9555 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons [57]. 3.5. Downstream Conditions 3.5.1. Automobile Industry - From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 24.466 million and 24.624 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.779 million and 9.75 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33% and 33.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 39.6% of the total sales of new vehicles [60]. 3.5.2. Home Appliance Industry - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The production of household refrigerators was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The production of household washing machines was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the macro - policy vacuum period, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and during the night session, rebar closed up while hot - rolled coils closed down [2] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [2] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost assessment of disorderly price competition [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7%; the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25%; the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [2] - In December 2025, the production plan of household air conditioners was 14.11 million units, a 22.3% decrease compared with the actual figure of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 8.13 million units, a decrease of 8.2%; the production plan of washing machines was 7.94 million units, a decrease of 1.9% [2] Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. This week, rebar production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand were both weak [2] Trading Strategy - Maintain the previous view: rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate. The first pressure level for the rebar main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level is still a strong support. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or hold an empty position [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It offers insights into market trends, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting that most markets will experience volatile trends in the short term, with specific market conditions varying [7][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is characterized by continuous rallies followed by pullbacks, indicating resistance to upward movement. Trading volume is insufficient, and investors are cautious. The index is expected to remain range-bound, waiting for a clear direction. Recommended strategies include reducing positions and waiting on the sidelines, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash-and-carry arbitrage, and using a straddle strategy for options [17][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the recovery momentum is weak. Although the central bank's reverse repurchase operations indicate a slightly supportive stance, the market is still affected by investor behavior and sentiment. Short-term trading strategies suggest lightly betting on rebounds and paying attention to potential cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities [21][22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean market shows a pattern of high yields, with limited upside potential. Domestic soybean meal has significant losses in crushing profit, and future supply is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal, and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [24][25][26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing, high production costs provide some support. It is advisable to consider short-term long positions at low prices, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [26][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The high-frequency data of palm oil shows an expected increase in production and weak exports, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short-term long and short trading at low and high prices or wait and see [30][31][32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The U.S. corn market is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term. The supply of domestic corn is relatively tight, and the spot price is strong. It is suggested to short the 01 contract at high prices, wait for the 05 and 07 contracts to pull back, and conduct 01 corn and starch spread narrowing arbitrage [33][34][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure remains, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [37][38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, but the supply of oil peanuts is abundant, limiting the upside potential of the futures price. It is advisable to short the 01 contract at high prices, conduct 15 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601-P-7600 options [40][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the January contract at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options [42][43][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the apple price is stable. The inventory is increasing, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus fruits. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47][48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton is entering the market in large quantities, and the supply is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [51][52][53]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is range - bound, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The overall supply and demand of the steel market are relatively balanced, and the cost provides some support. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude for the overall trend and conduct long hot - rolled coil and short rebar spread trading when the spread is low [56][57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment is weak, and the downstream procurement is inactive. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and close out the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage [58][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is weak in the medium term. The ore price is expected to be volatile and weak at high levels. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices [62][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Under the trend of production cuts, the price is oscillating at the bottom. The fundamentals and cost of silicon iron and manganese silicon are relatively stable, and the overall valuation is not high. It is recommended to expect bottom - range oscillations and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The scenario of a December interest rate cut has become the baseline again, and gold and silver are expected to maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [68][69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The listing of platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has driven global market resonance. Platinum is expected to have more upside potential, while palladium is expected to follow platinum's trend but with weaker upward momentum. Recommended strategies include a long - buying approach, long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and a call collar option strategy [73][74][75]. - **Copper**: The expectation of a U.S. interest rate cut has increased, providing support for copper prices. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [75][76][78]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been implemented, and the pressure on alumina remains high. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [80][82][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the aluminum price fluctuates with the sector. The fundamentals support a relatively strong medium - term price. It is recommended to follow the external market's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [85][86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The raw material cost is high, and the demand is differentiated. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [89][90][91]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply may decrease, and the export volume is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [92][93]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of smelting cost support. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost line and wait and see for other strategies [94][96]. - **Nickel**: Production cuts stimulate the nickel price to rebound, but inventory suppresses the upside. The price is in a downward trend. It is recommended to take a short - selling position and sell out - of - the - money call options [97][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the raw material's rebound. The price is restricted by inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - selling position [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is range - bound, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [101][102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may rise and then fall in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell when the price rises again and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to buy on a full - scale long - term correction [106][107]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Short - term driving factors are limited, and the oil price remains volatile [16]. - **Asphalt**: The spot market still faces pressure, and the futures price is weakly volatile [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase [16]. - **PX & PTA**: The current situation is weak, but the future expectation is strong [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand is seasonally declining [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [16]. - **Propylene**: Supply pressure remains high, and inventory is at a high level [16]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory growth rate of domestic large - scale enterprises has slowed down [16]. - **PVC**: The price has a weak rebound [16]. - **Methanol**: Short - term support comes from gas restrictions in Iran [16]. - **Urea**: The spot price has increased, but trading volume has weakened [16]. - **Pulp**: High inventory suppresses the pulp price [16]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [16]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure remains high, and the market has limited rebound momentum [16]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The year - on - year growth rate of tire operating rates has slowed down [16]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: BD gross profit has reached a new low, while BR gross profit has reached a new high [16].

New Stock Subscription - A new stock subscription for Bai'ao Saitou is available with a subscription code of 787796 and an issue price of 26.68 yuan per share, with a subscription limit of 0.75 thousand shares [3] Industrial Profit Data - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. However, in October alone, profits decreased by 5.5% year-on-year due to high base effects and rising financial costs [3] Infrastructure REITs Development - Since the launch of infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has expanded the market to include 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types from 10 industries having completed their first issuance [3] Price Competition Regulation - The NDRC is addressing issues of disorderly price competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for compliance with price competition regulations to maintain market order and support high-quality development [4] Consumer Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote reforms in automotive consumption, including expanding the second-hand car market and enhancing automotive aftermarket services to stimulate consumer spending [4] Fair Competition Initiatives - The State Administration for Market Regulation is enhancing antitrust enforcement and fair competition reviews, aiming to create a market-oriented and law-based business environment [5] Capital Market Reforms in Shaanxi - Shaanxi Province has introduced 16 measures to deepen capital market reforms, focusing on the role of state-controlled listed companies in resource integration and reducing related party transactions [6] Low-altitude Economy Development - Chongqing's government has implemented policies to support the growth of low-altitude economy enterprises, offering financial incentives for recognized companies in this sector [6] Gaming Industry Approvals - In November, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 178 domestic online games and 6 imported online games, indicating ongoing regulatory activity in the gaming sector [7] Company News Highlights - More Thread initiated a callback mechanism with a final online issuance success rate of 0.03635054%, with investors subscribing for 16.77 million shares totaling 1.917 billion yuan, while 29,302 shares were abandoned [9] - Tianpu Co. will suspend trading for verification starting November 28, having seen a cumulative increase of over 1000% this year [9] - FAW Jiefang plans to increase capital by 191 million yuan in Jiefang Times, with Ningde Times and Telepower also participating [10] - Mindray Medical's chairman intends to increase his stake in the company by 200 million yuan [11] - Dongxin Co. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a cloud computing service provider [12] - Jinfu Technology is planning to acquire equity in Lanyuan Technology, which involves new business areas and carries certain industry integration risks [13] - Chen'an Technology is planning to issue shares to specific investors, which may lead to a change in control, with stock suspension effective immediately [14] - *ST Songfa's subsidiary signed shipbuilding contracts worth approximately 1.1 to 1.6 billion US dollars [15]

Core Points - The article discusses the ongoing issue of disorderly price competition in certain industries and the measures being taken by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to address it [2][3] Group 1: Price Competition Issues - There are significant problems with disorderly price competition in some industries, with companies failing to comply with regulations aimed at standardizing pricing behavior [2] - The NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) will work together to address these issues and maintain a sound market price order to support high-quality development [2] Group 2: Measures and Actions - An announcement by the NDRC and SAMR outlines that industry associations can assess average industry costs under the guidance of relevant authorities to help businesses set reasonable prices [2] - This initiative aims to provide three main benefits: 1. Offering a reference for reasonable pricing based on average industry costs [2] 2. Encouraging businesses to improve their production and management practices [2] 3. Evaluating industry competition by comparing average costs with market prices [2] Group 3: Monitoring and Regulation - The NDRC and SAMR will closely monitor market price competition and maintain order in key sectors [3] - The initiative will leverage credit regulation to implement penalties for dishonest practices [3]

Core Insights - In October, the profit growth of industrial enterprises at or above designated size declined due to high base effects from the previous year and rising financial costs, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [1][3] - From January to October, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9%, maintaining growth for three consecutive months since August [1][3] - The mining sector saw a profit decline of 27.8%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 7.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.5% [3][4] Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points [4] - Specific sectors within high-tech manufacturing, such as smart electronic manufacturing and semiconductor manufacturing, reported significant profit growth, with increases of 116.1% and 89.2% respectively [4] - Traditional industries are also seeing improvements, with certain sectors like chemical and building materials showing profit growth significantly above the industry average, such as graphite and carbon products at 77.7% [5] Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is addressing issues of price competition in various industries to maintain a stable market environment, which is expected to support high-quality development [6] - Analysts suggest that for sustained profit improvement, policies to expand domestic demand and optimize supply structures are crucial, along with monitoring the balance between inventory replenishment and end-user demand [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].