Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the iron ore industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a gradually strengthening trend with oscillations. The supply side has new shipments starting to decline, the demand side is slightly recovering, and although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below, maintaining an overall upward - trending and oscillating state [4]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main iron ore futures contract oscillated slightly stronger, closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.98%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 655,000 lots, and the sunk funds were 11.849 billion yuan. The short - term oscillation was slightly stronger, and it was necessary to pay attention to the test near the previous high [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 833, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 708. The swap's main contract was at 109.2 (+0.9) US dollars/ton, and both spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 867.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 44.7 yuan/ton, which slightly widened. The iron ore 1 - 5 spread was 41.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 20.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and a positive basis, with limited downside and short - term continued oscillation on the strong side [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: After the year - end shipping rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions weakened simultaneously. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, the previous high shipments were expected to support high arrival volumes, and there were expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance and复产, the steel mill profitability rate slightly recovered, and the restocking gradually started but was still slow. There was still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing congestion increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average, and the release of restocking demand was still slow [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: In the first quarter, policy expectations were gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 was released, with certain optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early - batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the disbursement and use of various funds. Recently, multiple major infrastructure projects were approved or approved, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments not fully distributed in October, the investment side was expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - **Overseas**: Trump might announce the nomination for the new Fed Chairman in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett was still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path might be faster in the next one to two years [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Iron ore fundamentals show that supply-side new shipments are gradually decreasing, demand is slightly recovering, and although port inventories are still increasing, they are gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, along with the recent general rise in commodity price sentiment, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance. In the short term, there may be some corrections, but overall, it still shows a gradually strengthening trend in a volatile pattern [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fell to 813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton (-1.81%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 443,000 lots, an open interest of 637,000 lots (a reduction of 29,000 lots), and a settled capital of 11.388 billion yuan. The price faced pressure near the previous high of 840 and pulled back [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 3 to 829 yuan/ton, the Super Special powder dropped 3 to 707 yuan/ton, and the main swap contract was at 107.9 (-1.1) US dollars/ton [1] - The PB powder at Qingdao Port was converted to a futures price of 860.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.7 yuan/ton (the basis widened). The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 45 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis. Although there was a short - term weak correction, the overall trend continued to strengthen gradually in a volatile manner [1] Fundamental Analysis - At the end of the year, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support high arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2] - On the demand side, hot metal production recovered month - on - month as blast furnaces resumed production after maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills slightly recovered, and inventory replenishment gradually started but at a slow pace. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the number of congested ships increased slightly. The inventory pressure is still building up. Steel mill inventories increased to some extent but are still significantly lower than historical levels, and the release of inventory replenishment demand is still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations for the first quarter of 2026 are rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully disbursed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3] - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore market shows a trend of gradual strengthening. On the fundamental side, the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, while the demand side is slightly recovering. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure and positive basis of the futures contract, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 828 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,000 lots, the open interest was 667,000 lots with an increase of 25,000 lots, and the settled funds were 12.142 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a relatively strong state [1]. - **Spot price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 9 to 822, and Super Special powder rose 9 to 699. The main swap price was 109.15 (+2.5) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough, and the spot was also strong [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 854.1 yuan/ton, and the basis was 26.1 yuan/ton, with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 11 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract presented a back structure and positive basis, with support below the futures price and a continued strengthening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: After the year - end rush, the overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis. The shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions were weak on a month - on - month basis. The arrivals this period increased on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production recovered on a month - on - month basis. After the previous blast furnace overhauls, the blast furnaces resumed production, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing volume increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow. The continuous accumulation of port inventory and the slow replenishment of steel mills, along with the expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, the recovery of molten iron and pre - holiday replenishment support the iron ore price [2]. Macroeconomic Level - **Domestic**: In the first quarter, policy expectations are gradually rising. In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, which has been optimized and adjusted compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for the early batch of 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects, with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [4]. - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in the market expectation, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [4].