盈利预测与投资建议：预计公司25/26 年归母净利润增速分别为14.9%/12.8%，EPS 分别为2.60/2.94 元/ 股，当前股价对应25/26 年PE 分别为6.11X/5.39X，对应25/26 年PB 分别为0.83X/0.74X，综合考虑公司 历史PB（LF）估值中枢和基本面情况，给予公司最新财报每股净资产1.1 倍PB，对应合理价值18.93 元/ 股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：（1）经济增长超预期下滑导致零售资产质量恶化；（2）存款成本上升超预期；（3）利率 波动超预期；（4）政策调控力度超预期。 核心观点： （3）资产质量保持优异。25H1 末不良率0.76%，环比25Q1 末持平，拨备覆盖率521%，较25Q1 下降 9.18pct，拨备余粮充足。前瞻指标看，测算25H1 不良净生成率0.66%，同比微升3bp；关注率及逾期率 分别为0.51%、0.61%，较25Q1 末分别下降3bp、8bp。（4）转债成功转股，资本夯实。25Q2 末核心一 级资本充足率为9.74%，较25Q1末提升0.73PCT，主要贡献可能有二：其一，转债强赎成功；其二，利 率市场回落，OCI 浮盈增加，25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue, PPOP, and net profit for Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.18%, -2.24%, and -2.44% respectively, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - The company experienced accelerated asset expansion, with total interest-earning assets growing by 15.29% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, an increase of 3.87 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [2] - Loan growth for Q1 2025 was 10.38% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - Financial investment scale increased by 19.97% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 7.21 percentage points, despite a decrease of 8 billion in AC scale [2] - Deposit growth was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 19.11% in Q1 2025, reflecting a recovery trend since 2024, and a single-quarter deposit increment of 150.5 billion, which is 40.1 billion more than the previous year [2] Group 2: Income and Asset Quality - The company’s net fee and commission income rose by 24.42% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking a significant increase of 32.25 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Retail business transformation strategies led to a rapid increase in retail customer numbers and retail AUM, reaching 31 million and 12.6 trillion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.36% and 13.84% [2] - The non-performing loan ratio slightly decreased to 1.30% as of Q1 2025, showing a marginal improvement from the previous quarter [3] - The new non-performing loan generation rate was 0.94%, down 3 basis points from the previous year, indicating easing pressure on asset quality [3] Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Other non-interest income declined by 17.67% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a drop of 33.06 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to adjustments in the bond market [3] - The net interest margin was under pressure, with a quarterly decline of 14 basis points to 1.29%, as the decrease in asset yield outpaced the reduction in liability cost [3] - The company is advised to be actively monitored due to its deepening presence in Beijing, accelerated asset scale expansion, significant deposit growth, strong performance in fee income, and stable asset quality [3]