Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Luckin Coffee, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [14]. Core Insights - Luckin Coffee reported a revenue of RMB 12.4 billion for Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 47%. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 1.4 billion, up 44% year-on-year [5][2]. - The company continues to focus on market share and scale growth, with an average monthly transacting customer count of 91.7 million, a 32% increase year-on-year. The total number of stores reached 26,206, with a net increase of 2,109 stores quarter-on-quarter [5][1]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with new stores opening in Singapore and New York, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [1][2]. Financial Performance - Directly operated stores generated revenue of RMB 9.14 billion, a 46% increase year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 13.4% [1][2]. - Franchise stores contributed RMB 2.87 billion in revenue, reflecting a 55% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in delivery fees due to participation in delivery platform subsidy activities [1][2]. - The adjusted operating profit was RMB 1.85 billion, a 61% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 15%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][1]. Future Outlook - The company aims to continue expanding market share and maintain a high pace of store openings to capitalize on growing consumer demand, achieving rapid revenue growth [3][6]. - Luckin Coffee plans to leverage scale advantages and operational efficiency to offset the impact of delivery fee fluctuations, thereby sustaining relatively stable profitability [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The delisting of Renrenle Supermarket marks the accelerated decline of the golden era of traditional large chain supermarkets in China, reflecting broader industry turbulence and differentiation [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Renrenle Supermarket, once a prominent player alongside Yonghui and RT-Mart, has seen its market value plummet from approximately 13.668 billion yuan at its peak in 2010 to about 1.58 million yuan at the time of delisting, representing a 99% decrease [2][3]. - Founded in 1996, Renrenle was initially successful, breaking the myth of "no competitors within 3 kilometers" against Carrefour and Walmart, and was recognized as one of the "three giants" of Guangdong supermarkets [2][16]. Industry Context - The rise and fall of Renrenle reflect the changing dynamics of the retail industry, where new entrants like Sam's Club and the emergence of e-commerce have disrupted traditional business models [3][26]. - The traditional supermarket model, which relied heavily on physical store expansion, has become increasingly untenable in the face of evolving consumer preferences and the rise of online shopping [18][26]. Strategic Missteps - Renrenle's aggressive expansion strategy, including a "ten thousand stores in five years" plan, led to significant financial strain, particularly in markets like Xi'an where profitability was not achieved [19][20]. - The company failed to adapt its successful business model from Shenzhen to other regions, leading to operational inefficiencies and financial losses [20][21]. Financial Decline - By 2023, Renrenle's audited net assets were reported at -387 million yuan, triggering delisting warnings, and the company faced severe liquidity issues with a 40% out-of-stock rate in stores [25][27]. - The company's financial struggles culminated in the closure of 45 stores in 2024, alongside significant asset sales to recover funds [25][27]. Broader Industry Trends - The entire supermarket sector is experiencing challenges, with competitors like RT-Mart and Yonghui also reporting significant revenue declines and store closures [25][29]. - The shift towards e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors have rendered traditional supermarket models less effective, leading to a wave of industry consolidation and exits [26][30]. Conclusion - The case of Renrenle serves as a cautionary tale for the retail industry, highlighting the risks of failing to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions, as well as the consequences of misaligned strategic decisions [26][31].

Core Insights - Kudi has over 15,000 stores, with 3,000 pending openings, including standard stores, in-store shops, and convenience stores [1] - In May, nearly 90% of Kudi's standard stores achieved a net profit exceeding 10,000 yuan, indicating the effectiveness of recent delivery subsidies [1] - Kudi's average operating cash flow per store reached 27,000 to 28,000 yuan in May, a 40% year-on-year increase [2] Expansion Strategy - Kudi's growth strategy focuses on expanding its franchisee base to sustain its subsidy model and has set a target of 50,000 stores by 2025 [3] - The company has invested in upstream supply chains to support store expansion, particularly in regions like Anhui [3] - Kudi's previous plan to open 8,000 in-store shops in six months was halted due to operational challenges and brand consistency issues [3][4] Operational Challenges - Kudi faces management issues, including inconsistent product quality and hygiene problems, which have been criticized on social media [4] - The company plans to appoint 1,100 regional managers to improve store oversight, aiming for a more standardized operational model [5] - The current management ratio of 1 regional manager to 14 stores is seen as more reasonable compared to previous instances where one manager oversaw up to 90 stores [5] Market Dynamics - Kudi's growth has been significantly driven by delivery subsidies, primarily supported by JD.com, which may not be sustainable in the long term [5] - The average price of Kudi's products on JD's delivery platform is approaching 9.9 yuan, raising concerns about future sales volume as subsidies decrease [5][6] - The competitive landscape in the coffee industry is expected to intensify, with a potential market shakeout as profitability becomes more challenging [6]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported 1Q25 results that met expectations, with revenue growth driven by increased investment in product competitiveness and a focus on medium to long-term profit growth [1]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 11% YoY to Rmb46.97 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising 13% YoY to Rmb751 million [1]. - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business grew 13% YoY to Rmb23.2 billion, with JD.com contributing Rmb14.7 billion, a 14% YoY increase [2]. - Revenue from external customers rose 12% YoY to Rmb8.5 billion, with the number of customers increasing by 14% YoY to 63,601 [3]. - Revenue from express delivery and freight delivery industries increased by 10% YoY to Rmb23.8 billion, maintaining a high external revenue proportion of about 70% [4]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs rose 12% YoY, with specific increases in employee compensation (+14%), outsourcing costs (+18%), and other operating costs (+6%) [5]. - Gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 7.2%, attributed to increased investments in transportation and delivery resources [5]. - Total expenses rose 1.3% YoY to Rmb3.18 billion, with the expense proportion in revenue decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 6.8% [5]. Future Trends and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to enter a development phase in 2025, focusing on scale expansion and product upgrades, driven by channel integration with the Taotian platform and improvements in operational efficiency [6]. - Expansion of overseas warehouses is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities for the international business [7]. - Integration with Deppon's network is expected to enhance economies of scale [7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 35% to Rmb8.54 billion, with a new forecast for 2026 at Rmb9.43 billion, reflecting a 10% YoY increase [7]. - The stock is currently trading at 8.5x 2025e and 7.6x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with a target price of HK$18.5, indicating a potential upside of 57.3% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue, PPOP, and net profit for Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.18%, -2.24%, and -2.44% respectively, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - The company experienced accelerated asset expansion, with total interest-earning assets growing by 15.29% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, an increase of 3.87 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [2] - Loan growth for Q1 2025 was 10.38% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - Financial investment scale increased by 19.97% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 7.21 percentage points, despite a decrease of 8 billion in AC scale [2] - Deposit growth was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 19.11% in Q1 2025, reflecting a recovery trend since 2024, and a single-quarter deposit increment of 150.5 billion, which is 40.1 billion more than the previous year [2] Group 2: Income and Asset Quality - The company’s net fee and commission income rose by 24.42% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking a significant increase of 32.25 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Retail business transformation strategies led to a rapid increase in retail customer numbers and retail AUM, reaching 31 million and 12.6 trillion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.36% and 13.84% [2] - The non-performing loan ratio slightly decreased to 1.30% as of Q1 2025, showing a marginal improvement from the previous quarter [3] - The new non-performing loan generation rate was 0.94%, down 3 basis points from the previous year, indicating easing pressure on asset quality [3] Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Other non-interest income declined by 17.67% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a drop of 33.06 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to adjustments in the bond market [3] - The net interest margin was under pressure, with a quarterly decline of 14 basis points to 1.29%, as the decrease in asset yield outpaced the reduction in liability cost [3] - The company is advised to be actively monitored due to its deepening presence in Beijing, accelerated asset scale expansion, significant deposit growth, strong performance in fee income, and stable asset quality [3]

以下文章来源于远川研究所 ，作者黎铮 远川研究所 . 刻画这个时代 一个冬天的童话。 作者 | 黎铮 编辑 | 李墨天 来源 | 远川研究所 （ID：YuanChuanInstitution） 把胖东来当作榜样的永辉超市，曾经也是前者的老师。 早年于东来去福州进货，永辉创始人张松轩兄弟俩带于东来参观门店，毫无保留地分享 生鲜供应链的整套流程——那是永辉赖以生存的身家性命。 2022年一次讲课，于东来感慨当年峥嵘岁月："你看，原来永辉多好[1]。" 巅峰时期，永辉的门店数量是胖东来的75倍。命运用又一个十年将两者的身份对调，时 过境迁，胖东来飞升零售教父，永辉成了教父的门徒，步步高、中百等商超上市公司， 于东来近日公布的2024年营收数据 胖东来是一本被零售行业长时间忽略，短时间翻烂的教材，但它的内核其实不复杂， 只 是反常识： 一不靠低价，二不做巨头，三不要增长。 不靠低价 线下消费至暗的2022年，想破脑袋的零售同行和深感赚钱毫无乐趣的于东来把酒言欢， 一场全国巡回帮扶之旅就此展开。 最先尝到甜头的是头戴ST帽子的步步高，梅溪湖店调改三天后，日均客流与销售额就分 别比改造前翻了6.5倍和6.7倍[3]。永辉 ...