Market Overview - A-shares experienced an upward trend last week, with major indices rising and trading volume remaining high [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, communication, electronics, and non-bank financials performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In July 2025, the central bank reported a decrease in new RMB loans by 50 billion, against a market expectation of a decrease of 15 billion, with a previous value of 22,400 billion [4] - The total social financing scale was 11,600 billion, below the market expectation of 14,100 billion and significantly lower than the previous value of 41,993 billion [4] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 8.3% [4] - A notable increase in government bond financing by 12,440 billion year-on-year, indicating a strong driving force [4] - A significant decline in household deposits by 11,100 billion year-on-year, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" [4] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [5] - Retail sales for July reached 3.9 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but also a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percentage points [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 6.2%, marking four consecutive months of slowdown [6] Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed strong fluctuations last week, with liquidity remaining ample and a bullish sentiment prevailing [7] - The current two-margin balance as a percentage of total A-share market capitalization is 2.08%, significantly lower than the 5% seen in 2015 [7] - Despite concerns over potential economic downturns in Q3, the supportive monetary policy and low-interest environment continue to foster liquidity [7] Long-term Perspectives - The long-term dynamics of the US-China relationship have been established, with international capital markets questioning the US government's governance capabilities [8] - Opportunities may arise in domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion, particularly for undervalued stocks [8] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for allocation, while a "barbell strategy" remains effective in the current market environment [9] - The banking sector is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations of increased insurance capital inflow supporting dividend sectors [9] - In the offensive sector, technology remains a focus, especially with potential trading opportunities arising from domestic policy stability [9]