市场维持震荡， 主动权益基金向哑铃型配置迁移 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W39） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 28 日 截至 2025/9/26，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 90.31%。其中，普通股 票型基金的平均仓位约为 92.51%（较上周下降 0.13pct），偏股混合型基金 的平均仓位约为 91.14%（较上周下降 0.02pct），配置型基金的平均仓位约 为 88.03%（较上周下降 0.45pct）；"固收+"基金平均仓位约为 23.27%， 较上周下降 0.21pct。 近三月公募基金上调大盘成长配置比例。截至 2025/9/26，主动偏股型基 金大盘成长仓位 32.35%（较上周上升 0.24pct），大盘价值仓位 9.73%（较 上周下降 0.61pct），中盘成长仓位 6.73%（较上周下降 0.36pct），中盘价 值仓位 8.35%（较上周下降 0.3pct），小盘成长仓位 36 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced an upward trend last week, with major indices rising and trading volume remaining high [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, communication, electronics, and non-bank financials performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In July 2025, the central bank reported a decrease in new RMB loans by 50 billion, against a market expectation of a decrease of 15 billion, with a previous value of 22,400 billion [4] - The total social financing scale was 11,600 billion, below the market expectation of 14,100 billion and significantly lower than the previous value of 41,993 billion [4] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 8.3% [4] - A notable increase in government bond financing by 12,440 billion year-on-year, indicating a strong driving force [4] - A significant decline in household deposits by 11,100 billion year-on-year, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" [4] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [5] - Retail sales for July reached 3.9 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but also a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percentage points [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 6.2%, marking four consecutive months of slowdown [6] Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed strong fluctuations last week, with liquidity remaining ample and a bullish sentiment prevailing [7] - The current two-margin balance as a percentage of total A-share market capitalization is 2.08%, significantly lower than the 5% seen in 2015 [7] - Despite concerns over potential economic downturns in Q3, the supportive monetary policy and low-interest environment continue to foster liquidity [7] Long-term Perspectives - The long-term dynamics of the US-China relationship have been established, with international capital markets questioning the US government's governance capabilities [8] - Opportunities may arise in domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion, particularly for undervalued stocks [8] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for allocation, while a "barbell strategy" remains effective in the current market environment [9] - The banking sector is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations of increased insurance capital inflow supporting dividend sectors [9] - In the offensive sector, technology remains a focus, especially with potential trading opportunities arising from domestic policy stability [9]

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight adjustment last week, with the brand index closing at 1657.60 points, while several component stocks rose against the trend, including Xinlitai, Tigermed, and Stone Technology [1][2] - Xinlitai led the gains with an increase of 14.96%, followed by Tigermed at 12.48%, and Stone Technology at 11.47%. Other notable gainers included Three Squirrels and Supor, which rose by 7.69% and 6.07% respectively [2] - Since the beginning of 2025, Maimai Biological has seen a significant increase of 51.27%, with Shanghai Jahwa and Xinlitai also showing strong performance with gains of 47.96% and 47.71% respectively [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to gradually shift towards a more positive trend as investors remain sensitive to favorable factors, with ongoing accumulation of positive elements supporting economic expectations and fundamentals [4] - The current market structure indicates a potential for mid-term positive performance, driven by policy support, domestic technological breakthroughs, and a favorable external environment, which may enhance liquidity in the domestic capital market [4] - In the medium to long term, opportunities may arise in sectors such as domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion, with a focus on defensive dividend sectors and aggressive technology sectors, including internet and robotics [5]