市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能持续降低。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 宏观数据分析 日本央行行长植田和男12月1日暗示本月晚些时候可能加息，这一表态释放了强烈的鹰派信号，日央行 将在12月18-19日举行货币政策会议，届时加息成为大概率事件。日本在"失去的30年"以来，一直维持 低利率甚至0利率状态，日元也因此成为国际货币套利交易中重要的组成部分。日本当前经济有复苏苗 头，工资持续上行。弱势的日元汇率带来了输入性通胀压力，日央行顺势开始试探加息收紧流动性。国 际市场在日央行表态后对潜在的流动性收紧进行了一定定价但幅度有限，且随着美股小非农不及预期、 美联储换届人选基本确定、特朗普账户支持美股等催化进一步被冲淡。市场的关注点集中于弱美元。后 续需观察日元汇率和日债收益率等指标走强的持续性，再行判断真正影响。 市场上周震荡反弹，资金面层面，市场量能偏低，多种技术指标偏弱，融资数据有好转。 短期观点 年底临近，机构资金活跃度低，市场 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline last week, with major indices showing reduced trading volume during the adjustment phase [2] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, media, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [2] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 51,000, although August's data was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations and previous values [3] - The strong non-farm data had already been factored into the market, leading to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in December to around 40% [3] - Future inflation data, such as PCE prices, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's December decision [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed wide fluctuations last week, with low trading volume and weak technical indicators [4] - The market's downward trend was anticipated, with several short-term negative macro factors, including geopolitical risks and concerns over AI giants' profitability [4] - Defensive dividend and cyclical sectors performed better in the short term, while the overall market is expected to remain volatile [4] - The long-term market structure is unlikely to change significantly, as the economic fundamentals and technology narratives remain stable [5] Long-term Perspective - The ongoing U.S.-China competition has established a clear baseline, with increasing skepticism about the U.S. government's governance and institutional credibility [6] - The RMB has appreciated against the USD amid uncertainties in the U.S. economic outlook and Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting China's equity market [6] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant excess deposits in the market [6] - A focus on defensive dividend sectors is recommended, with attention to catalysts in certain industries [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with trading volume continuing to decrease amid divergent market performance [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, the new social financing scale was 35,338 billion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 12,900 billion yuan; the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8% [5] - M1 new caliber stock year-on-year growth rate was 7.2%, up from 6.0% last month; M2 stock year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% [5] - The main contributors to new social financing were short-term loans to enterprises (increased by 0.25 trillion yuan year-on-year), corporate bonds (increased by 0.20 trillion yuan), and off-balance-sheet notes (increased by 0.19 trillion yuan) [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) in September was -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% the previous month; the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline [6] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with trading volume and margin financing continuing to decline, dropping below 2 trillion yuan [8] - The upcoming period until early November is expected to be filled with macro events, leading to a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market [8] - The technology sector's long-term logic remains intact, and its high valuations have seen some digestion during recent adjustments [8] - Defensive dividend sectors may see an increase in allocation in the short term, while attention should be paid to stocks with catalysts in the dividend sector [8] - The long-term outlook indicates that the ongoing U.S.-China struggle has set a baseline, with international capital markets beginning to question U.S. governance and institutional credibility [8] - The current liquidity environment remains supportive, with a potential influx of funds into the equity market as the wealth effect increases among residents [8]