证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 25 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 基建数据跟踪： "高切低" ，积极关注低位基建和地产链 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20251117-20251123） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 本周市场整体走弱，上证指数下跌 3.9%，创业板指下跌 6.15%。我们判断，本轮调整 可能受到美国降息预期延后、美股高位波动加剧以及地缘政治不确定性升温等多重因素扰 动。我们认为，随着年末临近，市场或出现一定的"高切低"倾向：一方面，科技板块年 内涨幅显著，资金存在阶段性获利了结的可能；另一方面，10 月固 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in the A-share market has led to a significant inflow of funds into ETFs, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors despite the market's overall decline [2][6][10]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial adjustment from November 17 to 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 3% and the ChiNext Index dropping more than 6%, marking the largest weekly decline in months [1][4][5]. - As of November 24, signs of stabilization were observed, with all three major indices showing slight increases and a total of 4,228 stocks rising [3]. Fund Inflows - A total net inflow of 701.21 billion yuan was recorded for stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs, with broad-based index ETFs attracting 359.31 billion yuan, highlighting a strong preference for these investment vehicles during market corrections [2][6]. - Specific ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF, STAR 50 ETF, and ChiNext ETF were particularly favored, with net inflows of 64.29 billion yuan, 56.99 billion yuan, and 55.33 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Investment Trends - The current market adjustment is viewed as a normal correction, with many investors seizing the opportunity to buy into ETFs as a long-term strategy rather than short-term speculation [6][7]. - A notable trend of "high cutting low" has emerged, where funds are flowing out of high-valuation sectors like electronics and into more stable sectors such as banking and consumer goods [8][9]. Sector Preferences - Despite the overall market correction, there remains a strong interest in technology stocks, with significant inflows into sector-specific ETFs such as AI and robotics [9]. - The market is expected to see a shift towards undervalued assets with high dividend yields and positive fundamental outlooks as investors adjust their strategies [10].

记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨 张星 市场越跌，资金越买——这看似矛盾的一幕近期在A股市场上演。 上周（11月17日至21日），A股市场遭遇大幅调整，上证指数周跌幅超过3%，创业板指跌超 6%，创下近几个月来最大单周跌幅。 然而，在市场回调之际，大量资金却借道ETF逆市布局。 Wind数据显示，上周沪深两市股票型ETF和跨境型ETF合计净流入701.21亿元，其中宽基指数 ETF净流入359.31亿元，成为资金涌入的主要方向。 业内人士认为，市场大趋势没变，此时资金回流ETF说明很多资金是趁调整抄底。 截至11月24日收盘，A股市场已出现企稳迹象，三大指数小幅上涨，共4228只个股上涨，79 只个股涨停。市场在经历深度调整后，似乎正在寻找新的平衡点。 托合江分析认为， 此轮市场回调主要原因在于两方面， 一方面是今年已经上涨较多，特别是 AI、机器人等热门科技成长板块，具有回调压力；另一方面是市场担忧已经处于估值高位的 AI产业链无法出现爆款应用来消化估值。此外，还叠加美联储降息预期下降、年底资金面压 力等其他因素。 "高切低"成新趋势 在市场调整之际，资金流向也呈现出明显的 "高切低"特征。 7 0 0亿ETF资金" ...

本周科技成长板块大幅回调，带动A股市场调整。机构认为，市场在连续调整后继续下行空间相对有 限，11月之后市场调整有望结束，并迎来2026年春季行情的提前布局窗口。 对于后市配置，机构建议关注红利股、商品价格上涨的周期股，以及创新药和国防军工板块；AI算 力、存储、储能、机器人等板块也有反弹机会。 影响后市投资大事件 工信部：深入推进工业互联网高质量发展 11月22日，2025中国5G+工业互联网大会在武汉开幕。工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成表示，工 业和信息化部将坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，深入推进工业互联网高质量发展，为引领发展新质 生产力提供坚实支撑。 央企专业化整合再推进 11月21日，国务院国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目签约仪式。8组17家单位 分两批进行了重点项目集中签约，主要涉及新材料、人工智能、邮轮运营、检验检测、航空物流等关键 领域。 增量资金来了！16只硬科技主题基金同日获批 在市场情绪较为谨慎、板块轮动速度加快、热点行情持续性不强的环境下，A股市场呈现明显的"高切 低"特征，预计短期行情仍以震荡为主。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：一是投资者或转向红利股寻求 防御 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 晴空颠簸 本周上证指数跌 3.90%，沪深 300 跌 3.77%，创业板指跌 6.15%，价值风格表现强于成长风格， 大盘股涨幅居前。本周全 A 日均交易额 18597 亿，环比上周有所下降。本周大盘指数快速下 探至 3850 点附近，正如我们此前提出：突破 4000 点并不意味着后续"一马平川"。客观而言， 上证综指在下半年上涨幅度达到 15%左右，与当期宏观基本面的鲜明背离，可以看到 7-10 月 包括工业增加值和服务业生产指数、社零、固定资产投资、地产销售与投资等各类经济数据 相对较弱。值得提示的是股市与基本面之间短期脱敏是允许的，但长期背离是无法持续的， 因此我们依然主张大盘指数当前要稳稳站上 4000 点向上需要流动性牛向基本面牛的逐步过 渡，在基本面牛明确之前大盘指数仍处于我们反复强调的高位震荡状态。 对于本周五大盘指数加速下跌，实质是在全球资产共振式下跌过程中 A 股大盘指数受到负面 波及，我们倾向于认为当前大盘出现波动属于"晴空颠簸"(震荡不改长牛趋势)，后续剧烈 波动的概率不高。事实上，11 月以来 A 股高切低定价进一步加速，结合外部多重因素扰动引 发全 ...

该机构表示，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数 仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加 重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期 或以震荡蓄势为主。 ②东吴证券：A股近期调整系内外压力共振所致 东吴证券研报认为，A股本轮调整是外围因素与内生压力共同作用的结果：一是，全球流动性紧缩之 下，A股难以"独善其身"；二是，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及A股；三是，历史上A股 Q4"结账季"博弈是常态。考虑到本轮指数回撤幅度在历年牛市同期中已处于中等偏上水平，近期连续 调整后继续下行的空间相对有限。判断11月之后市场调整会结束，并迎来春季行情的提前布局窗口。 光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡；东吴证券：A股近期调整系内外压力共振所致。 沪指本周累计下跌3.9%，深成指累计下跌5.13%，创业板指累计下跌6.15%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构 怎么说： ①光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡 光大证券研报称，本周市场表现震荡或主要受海外股市波动的影响。受美 ...

记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨姜诗蔷 临近年底，A股在4000点关口反复震荡，市场风格骤然生变。 前期领涨的科技"小登"板块 （如电子、计算机、通信等）出现显著回调，而煤炭、银行、钢铁等周期"中登"板块则涨幅 领先。 鲜明的风格切换，让市场热议一个话题：面临年底业绩考核与排名压力，公募基金经理们是 否正在大规模调仓换股？ 21世纪经济报道记者采访调查发现，年底基金经理的调仓行为并非铁板一块，而是在长期考 核与短期压力、坚守风格与顺势而为之间展开一场复杂博弈。 总体来看，年底基金经理的调 仓行为是分化的：有的在"高切低"锁定收益，有的在坚守甚至加仓看好的成长股，还有险资 可能在逆向操作。 "高切低"现象引调仓猜测 进入四季度，A股市场的画风突变，"高切低"（即从高位板块向低位板块切换）成为盘面最显 著的特征。 此前一路高歌猛进的科技成长板块（被市场戏称为"小登"，如电子、计算机、通信、传媒 等）集体陷入深度回调。 截至11月18日，申万一级行业指数中，电子板块四季度以来跌幅近8%，传媒、计算机跌幅均 超5%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，一度被市场遗忘的周期板块（如煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、银 行等）则强势逆袭，煤炭、石油石化板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers face year-end performance assessments, leading to a "high cut low" strategy where funds are reallocating from high-performing technology sectors to undervalued cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, previously leading the market, has seen a notable decline, with the electronic sector down nearly 8% and both media and computer sectors down over 5% since the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as coal and oil have surged, with both sectors gaining over 11%, while banking and steel sectors have increased by more than 7% [2] - There is a clear trend of capital outflow from high-performing technology stocks into lower-valued sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers are engaging in a complex game of balancing long-term investment strategies with short-term performance pressures, leading to varied approaches to year-end reallocation [1][3] - The "high cut low" strategy is primarily aimed at locking in profits and managing rankings, with fund managers reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued assets [3][4] - Some fund managers choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent declines are merely profit-taking rather than a sign of a market downturn [4][5] Group 3: Institutional Investor Actions - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, often focusing on stability in the fourth quarter due to their annual performance assessments, which differ from public funds [8][9] - Some insurance institutions are taking advantage of the market's shift by increasing their positions in growth stocks while others are moving towards value stocks [9][10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience increased volatility as it prepares for a potential transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [11][12] - The investment strategy is shifting towards a "rebalancing" approach, focusing on both cyclical sectors and undervalued technology stocks, aiming for a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks [11][12]

另有数据显示，四季度以来，红利基金规模较三季度末增加80亿元，且新成立了14只产品。业内人士认 为，资金流入与发行加码的背后，是资金寻求稳健增值的需求，未来红利基金有望成为引导稳健型资金 进入权益市场的重要"跳板"。因为低利率环境下，居民投资需求发生转变。在其他指标不变的情况下， 股息率越高，获得正向收益的概率就越高。 四季度以来，资金在不同板块之间的角逐愈发激烈，科技等前期强势主线遭遇调整，顺周期、红利、化 工等资产则大幅反弹，呈现显著的"高切低"特征。对此，多位业内人士表示，市场风格正发生转变，均 衡配置或成为当下比较占优的策略。 华创证券认为，若PPI在反内卷政策积极推动下，在2026年初回正，红利风格的相对收益有望在周期红 利的业绩复苏预期回升中修复。如华创的判断成立，那么当前逢低逢跌或是收集筹码的窗口期。 不过，当前市场红利类投资标的也五花八门。单说指数，同是红利策略，选股范围不同，添加因子限制 都会对成分股入选情况带来较大影响。业内人士分析，当前比较符合红利主流审美的或许是在红利策略 基础上，叠加了低波因子。比如红利低波ETF基金(159547)跟踪的中证红利低波动指数，选取50只流动 性好、连续 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Review - The A-share market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 4034.08 points before closing at 3990.49 points, reflecting a significant fluctuation during the week [1][9] - The market's risk appetite slightly declined, as indicated by the equity risk premium (ERP) of 2.69%, which changed by 0.11 basis points during the week [1][9] - The performance of micro-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 index was notable, with weekly gains of 4.11% and 0.89% respectively, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices showed weaker performance with declines of -3.85% and -3.01% [13][17] Group 2: Global Equity Markets - Global equity markets mostly rose, with the French CAC, Brazilian IBOV, and Vietnamese exchanges leading the gains, recording weekly increases of 2.77%, 2.39%, and 2.27% respectively [2][26] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq underperforming, as concerns over inflation led to a decline in expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][29] Group 3: Major Asset Classes - Commodity prices saw a comprehensive increase, with Brent crude oil rising by 1.19%, London gold by 1.93%, and LME copper by 1.47% [3][31] - The U.S.-China interest rate spread expanded, with both short and long-term U.S. Treasury yields rising, while the dollar index fell by 0.31% and the RMB appreciated by 0.33% [3][31] Group 4: Policy Events - Domestic economic data released indicated that new credit and social financing in October fell short of expectations, with new loans at 220 billion RMB against an expected 460 billion RMB [4][38] - The U.S. government ended a 43-day shutdown following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump, which will provide funding until January 30, 2026 [4][38] - The Chinese government is expected to face challenges in maintaining economic growth, as investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed a general decline [4][38]