在港股市场，截至发稿前，优然牧业（09858.HK）大涨9.07%，现代牧业（01117.HK）涨5.07%，中国 飞鹤（06186.HK）涨2.18%，蒙牛乳业（02319.HK）等均涨。 此外，行业自身的周期反转预期，亦成为此次板块上涨重要催化。 在A股市场，乳业板块同步冲高。其中，皇氏集团（002329.SZ）、阳光乳业（001318.SZ）均录得涨停 板；贝因美（002570.SZ）涨5.26%，三元股份（600429.SH）涨3.88%，西部牧业（300106.SZ）涨 3.08%，麦趣尔（002719.SZ）涨2.89%。 对于此次乳业股的集体上涨，市场分析认为，这是板块轮动、消费回暖、生育政策预期与行业周期反转 等多重因素共同作用的结果。 消息面上，12月13日，全国医疗保障工作会议在北京召开，国家医保局在会议上发布多项数据和措施。 其中包括，力争2026年全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付"。 分析指出，若这一政策落地，有望降低生育成本，或进一步释放生育意愿，从而带动母婴乳制品等相关 细分市场的需求增长，直接利好乳业产业链。 同时，12月14日，商务部办公厅等三部门再度发布关于加强商务和金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy [2][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.074 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -11 million yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 77 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.12% [2][8] - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11 million yuan, a significant decline of 77.6% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 19 million yuan, down 62.71% year-on-year [2][8] - The company faces ongoing pressure from competition in the dairy industry, with a notable decline in sales of liquid milk products. However, it is actively responding to competition by promoting discounted products and gradually reducing excess dairy cattle [8][9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 2.804 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%. For 2025E, total revenue is expected to decrease to 2.700 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.7% [4][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to drop significantly to 44 million yuan in 2024A, and further to 7 million yuan in 2025E, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 69.3% and 84.5% respectively [4][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.14 yuan in 2024A, dropping to 0.02 yuan in 2025E, and then recovering to 0.39 yuan in 2026E and 0.53 yuan in 2027E [4][12] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its domestic market, with revenue from Xinjiang increasing by 10.16% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Xinjiang decreased by 13.68% [8][9] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 14.72%, down 5.14 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales of lower-priced products to cope with competition [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term pressures are expected to continue, investors should closely monitor the turning point in raw milk prices, as the company is well-positioned to benefit from its 100% self-sufficiency in milk supply once the cycle reverses [8][9]