证券研究报告 低温是核心增长极，25Q4大盘降幅收窄 ——乳制品季度专题 行业评级：看好 2026年2月27日 | 分析师 | 张潇倩 | 分析师 | 孙天一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | zhangxiaoqian@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | suntianyi@stocke.com.cn | | 执业证书编号 | S1230526010001 | 执业证书编号 | S1230521070002 | | | | | | | | 乳制品市场销售额同比变化 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 25Q1 | | 25Q2 | | | 25Q3 | | | 25Q4 | | | | | | | | | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 25.10 | 25.11 | 2 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Beef Cattle Price Trends Industry Overview - **Dairy Industry Supply and Demand Trends**: In 2024, coconut milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, while deep-processed dairy products like cream and cheese will continue to grow, with growth rates anticipated to outpace liquid milk and milk powder in the coming years. The average per capita dairy consumption in China is projected to be just over 40 kg, indicating significant room for improvement compared to developed economies and recommended consumption levels in China [1][1]. - **Low-Temperature and Room-Temperature Milk Consumption Trends**: The consumption scale of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is approximately 36.6 billion yuan, with second-tier cities at a combined 24.6 billion yuan, and below third-tier cities around 30 billion yuan. The market for low-temperature milk in lower-tier cities is expected to be a core area for rapid expansion over the next five years [1][1]. Market Dynamics - **2024 Consumption Scale**: The consumption scale for room-temperature liquid milk is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan, while low-temperature liquid milk is expected to reach 89.7 billion yuan. Low-temperature milk is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, while room-temperature milk faces a contraction. By 2025, low-temperature milk is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with a penetration rate of 25% in 2024, projected to rise to over 30% by 2029 [2][2]. - **Milk Price Trends and Profitability**: The cumulative decline in milk prices is expected to be 1.1% in 2025, a slight improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024. Despite demand pressures, dairy companies are expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, which have remained between 3.03-3.05 yuan/kg, with a recent increase noted. The improvement in profitability for dairy and beef cattle industries is anticipated to be more pronounced in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected for leading companies [2][2][3]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery for Leading Dairy Companies**: Smaller dairy companies that previously gained competitive advantages through low-priced raw milk are expected to struggle as they lose this cost edge. Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are projected to recover market share in 2026, with optimistic revenue targets set for 2025 [3][3]. - **Yili's Strategic Goals**: Yili aims for a mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, focusing on upgrading flavors in its room-temperature products and expanding its deep-processing business, which targets a scale of 10 billion yuan over five years [3][4]. - **Mengniu's Operational Improvements**: Mengniu, facing more significant internal adjustments, is expected to see a notable improvement in its operational status in 2026, with revenue growth anticipated in early months of the year [3][4]. Beef Cattle Industry Analysis - **Beef Cattle Price Trends**: The beef cattle industry is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly. The industry has been in a loss cycle since 2023, projected to last until mid-2025, with a recovery in profitability expected in the latter half of 2025. As of early February 2026, prices for various cattle types have shown significant year-on-year increases [5][5]. - **Dairy Cow Inventory and Price Outlook**: The dairy cow inventory reduction is nearing its end, with a cumulative decrease of 8.8% expected by the end of 2025. Current milk prices have dropped below previous cycle lows, but there is an expectation for significant price increases in the latter half of 2026 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Dairy Companies**: Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as the dairy sector is expected to improve, particularly in the context of rising beef cattle prices and stabilizing milk prices [6][6].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159268) rose by 1.4%, reaching a new high, with net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The A-share leading consumption ETF (159928) experienced a flat trading day with a total transaction volume exceeding 570 million yuan [3] - Popular constituent stocks such as China Duty Free and Pop Mart saw significant gains, with increases of over 8% and 5% respectively [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policies - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A-share consumer sector is becoming more active, with expectations for increased retail in gold, travel, and dining services [5] - A new policy for Hainan Free Trade Port allows residents to purchase imported goods tax-free, enhancing consumer sentiment [5] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption across various sectors, including digital and green consumption [5] Group 3: Alcohol and Beverage Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has rebounded, with a recent increase from 1570 yuan to 1610 yuan, reflecting a 2.5% rise [6] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with expectations for a gradual improvement in demand due to better economic forecasts [6][9] - The beer market is projected to face pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to the growth of non-traditional retail channels [6] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Developments - The National Standard for Pre-prepared Dishes is under review, which is expected to enhance the development of the pre-prepared food industry [7][10] - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in milk prices as supply and demand reach a turning point [7] - The snack food segment is experiencing growth, driven by the expansion of discount snack stores and innovations in social e-commerce channels [6][7] Group 5: Livestock and Meat Products - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned negative, with a 26.4% decline in profits from purchased piglets [8] - Prices for white feather chickens and egg-laying hens have shown slight week-on-week declines [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The dairy industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, driven by industrial upgrades that may boost raw milk demand and a potential upward turning point in milk prices, which could help leading dairy companies recover market share [4][8] - Supply-side dynamics indicate that raw milk prices are likely to rise, benefiting upstream farming companies. The price of fresh milk has declined for over four years, reaching 3.04 RMB/kg, a 30.6% drop from the 2021 peak of 4.38 RMB/kg. It is anticipated that the price stabilization will occur in the second half of 2025, with a turning point expected in 2026, significantly improving the performance of upstream farming companies [5] - On the demand side, there are structural opportunities in dairy product consumption, with potential for deep processing and domestic substitution to create new growth curves for dairy companies. The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is projected to be 40.6 kg in 2024, still below the 47 kg target set for 2030. The consumption structure is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low proportions of dairy solids [6] Summary by Sections - **Supply-Side Analysis**: The prolonged downturn in milk prices has been influenced by macroeconomic disturbances and the expansion led by large-scale enterprises during the previous price upturn. The ongoing losses in upstream farming companies are expected to lead to a supply-side contraction, with a price turning point anticipated in 2026 [5] - **Demand-Side Analysis**: The increasing health awareness among consumers is expected to drive the growth of low-temperature milk and cheese products, which will enhance raw milk demand. Regulatory changes are also expected to support the upgrade of the dairy industry by clarifying standards for deep-processed products and improving market access [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Based on the positive outlook for the raw milk cycle and domestic substitution of deep-processed products, leading dairy companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of market share during the price upturn. Recommended companies include Yili Group and China Shengmu, with a focus on modern farming practices [8]

Market Overview - On February 5, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.6%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.44%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.69%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.55%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.14% [5][4]. - The best-performing sectors on February 5 were beauty care (+3.21%), banking (+1.57%), food and beverage (+1.31%), retail (+0.9%), and textiles and apparel (+0.74%). The worst-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (-4.57%), electric equipment (-3.41%), telecommunications (-2.39%), coal (-2.22%), and steel (-2.15%) [5][4]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 5 was 21,943 billion yuan, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 24.977 billion Hong Kong dollars [5][4]. Important Recommendations - The report highlights New Dairy Industry (002946) as a leading player in the low-temperature milk sector, with significant potential for profit growth due to its strong product competitiveness. The net profit margin is expected to exceed expectations, opening up mid-term profit space [6]. - The recommendation logic includes the anticipated elasticity of net profit margin over the next three years, driven by product structure optimization, increased D2C channel share, and stabilization of raw milk costs [6]. - Revenue projections for New Dairy Industry are estimated at 11,274 million yuan in 2025, 12,187 million yuan in 2026, and 13,137 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 5.70%, 8.10%, and 7.80% respectively. The net profit is projected to be 710 million yuan, 863 million yuan, and 1,026 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 32.04%, 21.53%, and 18.92% respectively [6]. Important Insights - The report discusses the bond market, specifically focusing on the supply of "two eternal bonds" (二永债) in the context of special government bond increases and local state-owned capital injections into city and rural commercial banks. The supply of these bonds has shown a significant downward trend in recent years [7]. - For 2026, the total supply of "two eternal bonds" is projected to be between 1.4 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale estimated at 260 billion yuan to 460 billion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Yiming Food Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a growth of 62.38% to 90.02% compared to the previous year, driven by strategic initiatives in store growth and product optimization [1][2]. Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 47 million to 55 million yuan for 2025, an increase of 18.06 million to 26.06 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between 46 million to 54 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.78 million to 24.78 million yuan [2]. Previous Year’s Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 39.39 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 28.94 million yuan [3]. - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was recorded at 29.22 million yuan [3]. Reasons for Performance Increase - The company has focused on increasing foot traffic in its milk bar stores and enhancing brand positioning, resulting in over 6% growth in customer visits [5]. - Continuous optimization of core products and the introduction of new items have contributed to sales growth, with classic products like low-temperature milk and sandwiches seeing over 10% year-on-year sales increase [5]. - The company has expanded its multi-channel strategy, achieving significant growth across direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce channels, which has supported steady revenue growth [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Yiming Food Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a growth of 62.38% to 90.02% compared to the previous year, driven by enhanced brand positioning and product offerings [2][3]. Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 47 million to 55 million yuan for 2025, an increase of 18.06 million to 26.06 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 46 million to 54 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.78 million to 24.78 million yuan [3]. Previous Year’s Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 39.39 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 28.94 million yuan [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 29.22 million yuan, with earnings per share recorded at 0.07 yuan [4]. Reasons for Performance Increase - The company has focused on increasing foot traffic in its milk bar stores and enhancing brand recognition, resulting in over 6% growth in customer visits [4]. - Continuous optimization of core products and the introduction of new items have diversified the product line, contributing to sales growth across all time periods [4]. - The company has expanded its multi-channel approach, achieving significant growth in direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce channels, which has supported steady revenue growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - Yiming Food (605179.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to reach between 47 million to 55 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.38% to 90.02% [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 46 million to 54 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.43% to 84.81% [1]. - The company's performance changes are primarily driven by the growth of its milk bar stores and enhanced product strength [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The company focuses on increasing customer traffic in milk bar stores and strengthening brand positioning, which has solidified its brand power over three years [1]. - Store image upgrades and channel innovations have led to over 6% growth in customer traffic for milk bar stores, laying a solid offline foundation for revenue growth [1]. Group 3: Product Development - Continuous optimization of core products and the development of new products have enriched the product line across all time periods [1]. - Sales of low-temperature milk have maintained high growth, while classic categories like sandwiches have seen over 10% year-on-year sales growth [1]. - The new product, coconut crab stick sandwich, has achieved daily sales exceeding 10,000 units, becoming a bestseller [1]. Group 4: Market Expansion and Efficiency - The company has deepened its multi-channel layout, achieving significant growth in direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce channels, which has driven steady revenue growth [1]. - Enhanced cost control across the entire supply chain and optimized operational processes have improved overall efficiency, solidifying the profit foundation alongside revenue growth [1].

Core Viewpoint - Yiming Foods (605179.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to reach between 47 million to 55 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.38% to 90.02% [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 46 million to 54 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 57.43% to 84.81% [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The company focuses on increasing foot traffic in milk bar stores and enhancing brand positioning, which has strengthened its brand power over three years [1]. - Store image upgrades and channel innovations have led to over 6% growth in customer traffic for milk bar stores, laying a solid foundation for revenue growth [1]. Group 3: Product Development - Continuous optimization of core products and the development of new items have enriched the product line across all time periods [1]. - During breakfast hours, low-temperature milk maintains high growth, while classic items like sandwiches have seen sales increase by over 10% year-on-year [1]. - The new coconut crab stick sandwich has become a bestseller, with daily sales exceeding 10,000 units [1]. Group 4: Market Expansion - The company has deepened its multi-channel layout, achieving significant growth in direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce channels, which has driven steady revenue growth [1]. - Enhanced cost control across the entire supply chain and optimized operational processes have improved overall efficiency, solidifying the profit base while increasing revenue [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company Yiming Food is forecasting a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, with expectations of a growth rate between 62.38% and 90.02% compared to the previous year, driven by strategic focus on store growth and product innovation [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 47 million and 55 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 46 million and 54 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.43% to 84.81% [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing foot traffic in its milk bar stores and enhancing brand positioning, which has strengthened its brand power over three years [1] - Store image upgrades and channel innovations have led to a more than 6% increase in customer traffic, laying a solid foundation for revenue growth [1] Group 3: Product Development - Continuous optimization of core products and the development of new items have enriched the product line across all time periods [1] - Sales of low-temperature milk have maintained high growth, while classic items like sandwiches have seen over 10% year-on-year sales growth; a new product, the coconut crab stick sandwich, has become a bestseller with daily sales exceeding 10,000 units [1] Group 4: Market Expansion - The company has deepened its multi-channel layout, achieving significant growth in direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce channels, which has contributed to stable revenue growth [1] - Enhanced cost control across the entire supply chain and optimized operational processes have improved overall efficiency, solidifying the profit base alongside revenue growth [1]