食品饮料 2026 年年度策略汇报 20251230 摘要 顺周期板块需求承压，细分龙头业绩底部不明，建议观望。零售渠道型 公司（如万辰、鸣鸣很忙）及品牌型公司（盐津、卫龙）渠道扩张逻辑 不变，饮料行业关注东鹏特饮调整机会，安琪酵母出海和成本改善逻辑 支撑估值。 高分红及经营改善方面，推荐千禾味业和益海国际。千禾味业预计 2026 年弹性较大，益海国际在港股 15 倍市盈率下拥有 6%股息率，有 望受益于餐饮恢复带来的估值提升空间。 内需相关度高的顺周期板块（白酒、啤酒、餐饮供应链）目前处于历史 低点，市场情绪悲观。建议 2026 年一季度至二季度布局茅台，燕京啤 酒及青岛啤酒港股底部机会，餐饮供应链关注安井食品。 大众品板块推荐高景气细分赛道（零食量贩店、魔芋类产品、电解质饮 料），网点铺货和单点产出提升空间大的标的（万辰、卫龙、东鹏特 饮），以及估值便宜且具有潜力的企业（卫龙）。 东鹏饮料在货架管理和冰柜覆盖率方面表现出色，SKU 持续丰富扩展， 收入增速有望提升。中长期来看，东鹏在能量饮料行业的竞争格局相对 稳定，有望逐步替代红牛的市场份额。 Q&A 2026 年食品饮料行业的整体投资策略是什么？ 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically focusing on the dairy sector [1]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a phase of market size adjustment, with the market growing from 388 billion CNY in 2012 to 686 billion CNY in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%. However, a decline of 3.1% is expected in 2024, bringing the market size to 659 billion CNY [5][13]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "two super, many strong" structure, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu holding approximately 45% market share, which creates brand barriers and enhances competitive advantages [5][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply-demand structure in the dairy market, as supply is expected to decrease marginally while demand shows signs of weak recovery [5][36]. Summary by Sections Market Size and Consumption - The dairy market in China is undergoing a phase of adjustment, with liquid milk being the primary consumption category, accounting for 44% of the market in 2024 [5][16]. - Per capita dairy consumption in China is significantly below global averages, with a projected consumption of 41.5 kg per year in 2024, which is about one-third of the global average [5][19]. Competitive Landscape - The dairy industry is structured into three tiers: national, regional, and local companies, with Yili and Mengniu as the leading national players [5][31]. - The competitive advantages of leading dairy companies are expected to improve due to enhanced brand influence and consumer recognition [5][33]. Supply and Demand Structure - The supply of dairy products is expected to decrease marginally, with a reported production of 26.85 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a decline of 1.2% year-on-year [5][36]. - The report highlights the need to focus on the supply-demand structure, as policy catalysts may improve dairy demand [5][27]. Low-Temperature Milk and Cheese Market - The low-temperature milk segment is growing faster than the overall industry, with a market size of 41.8 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.63% [5][44]. - The cheese market is also expanding, with production increasing from 127,000 tons in 2019 to 203,000 tons in 2023, although the self-sufficiency rate remains low at 12.3% [5][50]. Online and Retail Channels - The sales structure for dairy products is predominantly offline, with online and instant retail channels contributing to growth, showing year-on-year increases of 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [5][69]. - The report indicates that the dairy industry is increasingly leveraging online channels to enhance market competitiveness and reach consumers more effectively [5][71]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies like Yili (600887), New Dairy (002946), and Miaokelando (600882) as key investment targets [5][73].

12月29日，皇氏集团（维权）盘中下跌5.10%，截至09:35，报4.28元/股，成交9287.16万元，换手率 3.32%，总市值35.63亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出844.22万元，特大单买入623.53万元，占比6.71%，卖出657.32万元，占 比7.08%；大单买入786.44万元，占比8.47%，卖出1596.87万元，占比17.19%。 皇氏集团今年以来股价涨17.91%，近5个交易日跌3.82%，近20日涨8.63%，近60日涨20.90%。 今年以来皇氏集团已经5次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为12月19日，当日龙虎榜净买入-9166.02 万元；买入总计1.03亿元 ，占总成交额比9.21%；卖出总计1.94亿元 ，占总成交额比17.42%。 资料显示，皇氏集团股份有限公司位于广西壮族自治区南宁市高新区丰达路65号，成立日期2001年5月 31日，上市日期2010年1月6日，公司主营业务涉及乳制品生产、加工及销售;文化传媒。主营业务收入 构成为：常温奶45.21%，低温奶39.57%，其他主营业务产品4.96%，云通信4.88%，呼叫中心服务外包 2.44%，其他2.17% ...

如此市场环境下，乳业巨头纷纷承压。 第三季度，伊利营收同比下滑1.70%至286.31亿元。在上半年，蒙牛营收同比下滑6.9%至415.67亿元。 21世纪经济报道记者 贺泓源 市场波动下，乳业市场迎来变局之年。 客观上，这一市场还在收缩。据欧睿数据，2024年我国液态奶行业规模为3442亿元，对应 2011-2021年 CAGR为7.2%。此后，液态奶行业需求阶段性承压，2022-2024年CAGR为-4.2%。尼尔森IQ数据显示， 在2025年9月，乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑16.8%。 落地到区域乳企，则是分化加剧。 三季度，光明乳业液态奶收入同比下滑8.44%至35.40亿元。三元股份液态奶收入同比下滑13%至9.24亿 元。新乳业、君乐宝却保持扩张。 整个市场都在调整期。 显然，伊利在市场起伏中相对稳住了身位。 在2025年前三季度，伊利营收同比增长1.71%至905.64亿元；归母净利润同比下滑4.07%至104.26亿元。 伊利营收下滑，主要受到液体乳市场波动影响。前三季度，伊利液体乳收入同比下滑4.49%至549.39亿 元，其中第三季度液体乳收入同比下滑8.83%至188.1亿元。 背后是，市 ...

值得一提的是，在2022年至2024年的3年间，光明乳业已经连续三年业绩下滑，营收分别下降3.39%、 6.13%和8.33%。然而董事长黄黎明及高管们的薪酬却逐年攀升，从2022年的86万元翻倍至172万元。 近期，光明乳业已完成对青海乳企小西牛剩余股权的收购。鉴于其连续三年下滑的业绩，在业内人士看 来，光明乳业或希望以此种方式补齐短板，背后是其对全国化和产品矩阵的"焦虑"。 光明内部员工向《BUG》栏目表示，光明近年来市场状况不容乐观，例如西南地区长久以来比较一 般，现在规模已经收缩。目前光明整体战略更加聚焦上海和华东地区，对于全国其他市场的正在逐步放 低，"尽量不要造成利润端损失"。 值得一提的是，上海作为光明乳业的大本营市场正在"失守"，其前三季度的销售额同比下降达4%。内 部员工也表示，"现在的确是压力很大"。 近期，光明乳业以5亿元完成对青海乳企小西牛剩余40%股权的收购，并实现100%控股。交易完成后， 小西牛将成为光明乳业全资子公司，创始股东王维生与张玉琴将退出。 该次收购与之前的对赌协议有关。公开信息显示，2021年，光明乳业以超6亿元完成了小西牛60%股份 的收购。双方达成了业绩对赌条款， ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1585.07万元，特大单买入1199.79万元，占比7.10%，卖出732.00万元， 占比4.33%；大单买入3985.58万元，占比23.58%，卖出2868.29万元，占比16.97%。 皇氏集团今年以来股价涨23.42%，近5个交易日涨7.69%，近20日涨22.40%，近60日涨20.11%。 今年以来皇氏集团已经5次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为12月19日，当日龙虎榜净买入-9166.02 万元；买入总计1.03亿元 ，占总成交额比9.21%；卖出总计1.94亿元 ，占总成交额比17.42%。 12月22日，皇氏集团（维权）盘中下跌2.18%，截至09:40，报4.48元/股，成交1.69亿元，换手率 5.72%，总市值37.29亿元。 皇氏集团所属申万行业为：食品饮料-饮料乳品-乳品。所属概念板块包括：融资融券、一带一路、光伏 玻璃、太阳能、钙钛矿电池等。 截至9月30日，皇氏集团股东户数6.45万，较上期增加2.75%；人均流通股10080股，较上期减少2.67%。 2025年1月-9月，皇氏集团实现营业收入13.14亿元，同比减少12.97%；归母净利润-4 ...

资料显示，皇氏集团股份有限公司位于广西壮族自治区南宁市高新区丰达路65号，成立日期2001年5月 31日，上市日期2010年1月6日，公司主营业务涉及乳制品生产、加工及销售;文化传媒。主营业务收入 构成为：常温奶45.21%，低温奶39.57%，其他主营业务产品4.96%，云通信4.88%，呼叫中心服务外包 2.44%，其他2.17%，其他饮料及食品0.77%。 截至9月30日，皇氏集团股东户数6.45万，较上期增加2.75%；人均流通股10080股，较上期减少2.67%。 2025年1月-9月，皇氏集团实现营业收入13.14亿元，同比减少12.97%；归母净利润-4924.47万元，同比 减少236.02%。 融资方面，皇氏集团当日融资买入1.04亿元。当前融资余额1.57亿元，占流通市值的4.21%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，皇氏集团12月19日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00 元；融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 12月19日，皇氏集团（维权）涨1.10%，成交额11.16亿元。两融数据 ...

婴幼儿奶粉板块：国家生育政策利好将直接提升新生儿数量，拉动婴幼儿奶粉市场需求扩容。具备品牌 口碑、产品研发能力及渠道优势的企业，有望在需求增长中抢占更多市场份额，实现业绩稳步提升，行 业集中度或进一步加强。 常温与低温奶板块：消费升级趋势下，消费者对乳制品的品质和新鲜度要求提高，低温奶因保留更多营 养成分受到青睐，常温奶则凭借便捷性占据广阔市场。头部企业通过产品创新和渠道拓展，将进一步巩 固领先地位，受益于市场规模扩大。 特色乳制品板块：A2奶源、有机乳品等特色产品契合健康消费需求，市场规模持续扩大。企业推出此 类差异化产品，能提升附加值增强盈利能力，获得更多市场机会，推动板块整体竞争力提升。 早盘，乳业板块表现活跃。板块内3只个股涨停。骑士乳业涨超12%，皇氏集团、均瑶健康、阳光乳业 涨停，贝因美涨超6%，熊猫乳品涨超4%，西部牧业、品渥食品、李子园、三元股份涨超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅▼ 成交额 年初至今 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 骑士乳业 | 10.65 1.17 | 12.34% 1.95亿 | 51.71% | | 皇氏集团 | 4.16 | ...

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprise Competitiveness Conference" was held in Beijing on December 9-10, highlighting the performance of New Hope Dairy in a sluggish dairy market [1][3] - New Hope Dairy has focused on low-temperature milk and yogurt, achieving significant growth despite overall market challenges [1][3] Company Performance - New Hope Dairy's growth is attributed to its strategy of emphasizing low-temperature milk and high-quality yogurt [1][3] - The brand "Asahi Weipin" is mentioned as a premium product, selling 200ml of milk for several tens of yuan, targeting the organic market [1][3] Market Trends - The premium segment, particularly organic products, is gaining traction in urban areas like Shanghai, where Asahi Weipin has sold out due to its alignment with contemporary consumer preferences [1][3]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Dairy Products Market**: The dairy market shows significant differentiation, with the ambient milk segment experiencing a decline, though the rate of decline is narrowing. Yili shows signs of bottoming out, while Mengniu is affected by internal management issues. The low-temperature milk segment is primarily driven by fresh milk growth, with Junlebao and New Hope performing well due to regional expansion and product innovation, posing challenges to Yili and Mengniu [1][5][12]. - **Channel Transformation**: Traditional supermarket channels are in decline due to store closures and high costs. New retail channels, such as O2O platforms, are rapidly emerging, with dairy product sales exceeding 20% and maintaining high growth, significantly impacting traditional channels [1][7][8]. - **Brand Competition**: The beverage market is highly competitive, with brands investing heavily to capture large outlets. Nongfu Spring benefits from the Wahaha incident and market recovery, showing significant performance improvement, while China Resources Beverage faces a decline due to strategic missteps [1][15][17]. Key Company Insights - **Yili and Mengniu Performance**: Both companies are in a declining state in the ambient liquid milk segment, with Yili's decline around 6-7% year-on-year and Mengniu's around 10%. However, Yili shows signs of recovery, and both companies face intense price competition and rising raw material costs [5][12]. - **Ice Cream and Other Dairy Products**: Yili's ice cream and milk powder segments are growing, with ice cream increasing by over 10% and milk powder by around 10%. Mengniu also shows positive performance in its milk powder business [6]. - **Sales Channels**: The performance of sales channels varies, with traditional supermarkets declining significantly. New retail channels are growing, with Nongfu Spring achieving a 20% e-commerce sales ratio [7][23]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Sales Growth**: The overall dairy product sales growth is projected at 20-30% for 2025, with low-temperature milk growing by 30% and ambient milk showing no significant growth [10][11]. - **Future Projections for Major Brands**: Yili aims for a 2-3% growth in ambient products and 10% in low-temperature products, while Mengniu targets stability or slight growth in ambient products and 8-10% in low-temperature products [12]. - **Emerging Competitors**: Junlebao and New Hope are gaining market share due to effective marketing and regional expansion strategies, posing a threat to established players like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Beverage Market Dynamics - **Nongfu Spring's Strategy**: Nongfu Spring has adopted a strategy of inventory reduction and reduced pressure on annual targets, leading to strong performance in both water and sugar-free tea segments, with overall growth exceeding 15% [16]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The beverage industry is highly competitive, with brands increasing spending to secure market share. This has led to significant shifts in market dynamics, particularly in the restaurant and special channel sectors [15][18]. - **Market Challenges**: Traditional channels continue to face challenges, with small supermarkets and convenience stores struggling due to economic downturns and reduced consumer purchasing power [11][22]. Conclusion The dairy and beverage industries are undergoing significant transformations, with emerging competitors and changing consumer preferences shaping the market landscape. Companies like Yili and Mengniu are adapting to these changes, while new players like Junlebao and Nongfu Spring are capitalizing on growth opportunities. The future outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for recovery and growth in specific segments.