证券研究报告 低温是核心增长极，25Q4大盘降幅收窄 ——乳制品季度专题 行业评级：看好 2026年2月27日 | 分析师 | 张潇倩 | 分析师 | 孙天一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | zhangxiaoqian@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | suntianyi@stocke.com.cn | | 执业证书编号 | S1230526010001 | 执业证书编号 | S1230521070002 | | | | | | | | 乳制品市场销售额同比变化 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 25Q1 | | 25Q2 | | | 25Q3 | | | 25Q4 | | | | | | | | | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 25.10 | 25.11 | 2 ...

位于东丽区未来科技城南区的环晟新能源（天津）有限公司3条产线在春节期间连续生产。公司相关负 责人介绍，作为TCL中环旗下高效太阳能叠瓦组件的研发与制造企业，春节期间组织部分产线连续生 产，主要是为了确保紧急交付订单按时履约，特别是针对海外地区的订单，需保障国际客户的供应链稳 定性，维护企业海外市场信誉；同时，部分国内长期合作客户的紧急订单也需优先响应，避免因假期延 误影响后续合作。"我们3条产线春节期间不停工，保留了一半产能，既能减少设备停机重启带来的损 耗，也能保障节后员工返岗后快速衔接生产节奏，避免因工序脱节导致的效率下降，确保全年生产计划 稳步推进。"他表示，"受4月1日光伏行业海关退税政策预期影响，今年一季度企业订单量明显提升，生 产节奏稳步加快，产品合格率保持在行业较高水平，客户满意度持续稳定。" 位于空港经济区的天津海河乳品有限公司巴氏奶产线春节期间一直正常生产。大年初四，供应全国市场 的花色奶产线也全部复工，除了部分行政人员还在休假，生产部门员工全部上岗，日产500吨牛奶的生 产线全速运转，常温奶、酸奶、冰淇淋等100余种乳制品源源不断被打包运往全国各地。公司党委书 记、董事长邹旸告诉记者，产线 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Beef Cattle Price Trends Industry Overview - **Dairy Industry Supply and Demand Trends**: In 2024, coconut milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, while deep-processed dairy products like cream and cheese will continue to grow, with growth rates anticipated to outpace liquid milk and milk powder in the coming years. The average per capita dairy consumption in China is projected to be just over 40 kg, indicating significant room for improvement compared to developed economies and recommended consumption levels in China [1][1]. - **Low-Temperature and Room-Temperature Milk Consumption Trends**: The consumption scale of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is approximately 36.6 billion yuan, with second-tier cities at a combined 24.6 billion yuan, and below third-tier cities around 30 billion yuan. The market for low-temperature milk in lower-tier cities is expected to be a core area for rapid expansion over the next five years [1][1]. Market Dynamics - **2024 Consumption Scale**: The consumption scale for room-temperature liquid milk is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan, while low-temperature liquid milk is expected to reach 89.7 billion yuan. Low-temperature milk is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, while room-temperature milk faces a contraction. By 2025, low-temperature milk is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with a penetration rate of 25% in 2024, projected to rise to over 30% by 2029 [2][2]. - **Milk Price Trends and Profitability**: The cumulative decline in milk prices is expected to be 1.1% in 2025, a slight improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024. Despite demand pressures, dairy companies are expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, which have remained between 3.03-3.05 yuan/kg, with a recent increase noted. The improvement in profitability for dairy and beef cattle industries is anticipated to be more pronounced in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected for leading companies [2][2][3]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery for Leading Dairy Companies**: Smaller dairy companies that previously gained competitive advantages through low-priced raw milk are expected to struggle as they lose this cost edge. Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are projected to recover market share in 2026, with optimistic revenue targets set for 2025 [3][3]. - **Yili's Strategic Goals**: Yili aims for a mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, focusing on upgrading flavors in its room-temperature products and expanding its deep-processing business, which targets a scale of 10 billion yuan over five years [3][4]. - **Mengniu's Operational Improvements**: Mengniu, facing more significant internal adjustments, is expected to see a notable improvement in its operational status in 2026, with revenue growth anticipated in early months of the year [3][4]. Beef Cattle Industry Analysis - **Beef Cattle Price Trends**: The beef cattle industry is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly. The industry has been in a loss cycle since 2023, projected to last until mid-2025, with a recovery in profitability expected in the latter half of 2025. As of early February 2026, prices for various cattle types have shown significant year-on-year increases [5][5]. - **Dairy Cow Inventory and Price Outlook**: The dairy cow inventory reduction is nearing its end, with a cumulative decrease of 8.8% expected by the end of 2025. Current milk prices have dropped below previous cycle lows, but there is an expectation for significant price increases in the latter half of 2026 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Dairy Companies**: Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as the dairy sector is expected to improve, particularly in the context of rising beef cattle prices and stabilizing milk prices [6][6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Coffee Beans**: The largest price increase is expected in 2024, with reference to Luckin Coffee's gross margin, which is projected to improve by nearly 3 percentage points during a same-store sales decline in 2024 [1][3] - **Sugar**: The main raw materials are white sugar and syrup, which can be substituted for each other. The raw materials are derived from sugarcane and corn [4] - **Corn**: Corn is classified as a strategic material in China, and its price is controlled, leading to stable and manageable prices for corn syrup products [5] - **Dairy**: The primary ingredients are non-dairy creamer and shelf-stable milk [2][6] Key Insights - **Brand Strength**: Do not underestimate the ability of leading brands to showcase their scale advantages [4] - **Product Structure Adjustment**: In extreme situations, companies can adjust their product structure to cope with price fluctuations. Dairy products are also essential goods, and their prices remain relatively stable [7] - **Southeast Asia Recovery**: Current tracking indicates that same-store sales in Southeast Asia have returned to normal levels in 2023, suggesting stable operations and no need for excessive concern [7] Market Dynamics - **Profit Forecasts**: Current profit forecasts do not include overly optimistic expectations for overseas contributions. Any excess contribution would be considered a positive surprise [8] - **Industry Landscape Improvement**: The industry structure has significantly improved, with the top 10 brands' market share expected to reach approximately 27% by 2025, an improvement of nearly 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [8] - **Stock Performance**: The resilience of performance indicates that even if share reductions occur, it will not alter stock price trends [8] - **Market Reactions**: A recent reduction in holdings by a minor shareholder in Gu Ming led to a rebound in stock price, demonstrating market resilience [9] - **Short Selling Concerns**: Overemphasizing concerns about share unlocks plays into the hands of short sellers [10]

Core Insights - The company "Raising a Cow" aims to achieve over 7 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, representing a growth of approximately 40% from over 5 billion yuan in the previous year, highlighting its strong market performance despite industry challenges [1] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain with 10 dairy farms and 4 beef farms, maintaining a self-sufficiency rate of over 95% for milk sources, which contributes to its operational efficiency [2] - The Chinese dairy market, valued at over 650 billion yuan, presents significant growth potential, and "Raising a Cow" has developed a diverse product matrix to meet segmented consumer demands [3] Group 1 - The company has achieved a notable market position, ranking among the top ten in the national dairy industry, despite being a relatively young brand established less than ten years ago [1] - The company has a robust offline presence, covering nearly 30 provincial-level administrative regions and entering major retail chains such as Yonghui Supermarket and RT-Mart [1] - The company’s innovative approach includes launching products like A2 β-casein organic milk to cater to specific consumer preferences, supported by ongoing research collaborations with institutions like China Agricultural University [2] Group 2 - The company has built a solid foundation through a twelve-year commitment to a full supply chain, starting with establishing farms before branding [1][2] - The company’s A2 β-casein milk series has ranked first in national sales for three consecutive years, demonstrating its competitive advantage in niche markets [3] - Future strategies include deepening supply chain integration, enhancing digital capabilities, and continuing product innovation to meet diverse consumer needs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huangshi Group's stock has experienced a decline in price and significant net outflow of funds, indicating potential investor concerns about the company's performance [1][2]. - As of January 15, Huangshi Group's stock price was 3.84 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.196 billion yuan [1]. - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price decrease of 1.54%, with a 5-day decline of 3.52% and a 20-day decline of 16.16%, while experiencing a 60-day increase of 5.49% [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Huangshi Group reported operating revenue of 1.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -49.2447 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 236.02% [2]. - The company has not distributed any dividends in the last three years, with a total payout of 187 million yuan since its A-share listing [3]. Group 3 - Huangshi Group's main business includes the production, processing, and sales of dairy products, with revenue composition as follows: ambient milk 45.21%, low-temperature milk 39.57%, and other products contributing to the remaining percentage [1]. - The company is classified under the food and beverage industry, specifically in the dairy sector, and is associated with concepts such as domestic dairy industry and green energy [1].

Group 1: BYD's Global Expansion - BYD's 14 millionth electric vehicle rolled off the production line in Brazil, marking a significant milestone for Chinese automakers in the South American market [1] - In 2025, BYD's overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups exceeded 1.0496 million units, a year-on-year increase of 145%, with a presence in over 119 countries and regions [1] - BYD's strategy focuses on local adaptation, including product customization, localized production, autonomous logistics, and brand contextualization to overcome market barriers [1][2] - The company emphasizes local talent recruitment, with approximately 80% of the workforce at its Brazilian factory being local residents [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Market Strategy - BYD plans to enhance its overseas market expansion and increase the global adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy products [2] - The company aims to strengthen its technological leadership by investing in electric and intelligent technology, ensuring that innovations translate into market competitiveness [2] Group 3: SF Express's Logistics Innovations - SF Express has significantly increased its blueberry shipping volume from 50,000 items in 2018 to over 10 million items in 2025, enhancing the freshness experience for consumers [3] - The company has implemented a drone logistics network in key blueberry production areas, utilizing AI and high-spectral imaging technology to improve product quality [3] - SF Express has introduced a "late delivery compensation" service to enhance customer rights and service quality, initially launched in ten cities [4] Group 4: iFLYTEK's AI Developments - iFLYTEK's AI model has undergone five iterations in 2025, achieving core capabilities in language understanding and mathematical reasoning, supporting over 130 languages [5][6] - The company focuses on using domestic computing power for model training to ensure long-term development security and independence [6] - iFLYTEK has expanded its AI applications across various sectors, including education and automotive, serving millions of users and facilitating significant interaction volumes [6] Group 5: Yili's Industry Growth - Yili Group's intelligent production base in Inner Mongolia has a daily processing capacity of 6,500 tons of fresh milk, emphasizing quality control throughout the production chain [7] - The company has successfully developed technologies that significantly enhance the retention of lactoferrin in long-life milk products [7] - Yili aims to increase its international market share and product value, positioning itself as a leading global health food provider [8] Group 6: Skyworth's New Energy Business - Skyworth's new energy business revenue reached 13.801 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a nearly 54% year-on-year increase, accounting for 38% of total revenue [9] - The company is developing a comprehensive green energy ecosystem through innovations in photovoltaic technology and integrated energy solutions [9][10] - Skyworth plans to enhance its competitiveness in smart home appliances and expand its presence in the global green energy market [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huangshi Group's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 5.10% and a total market value of 3.563 billion yuan [1] - As of December 29, Huangshi Group's stock price is 4.28 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 92.87 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.32% [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 17.91%, but a recent decline of 3.82% over the last five trading days [1] Group 2 - Huangshi Group, established on May 31, 2001, is located in Nanning, Guangxi, and was listed on January 6, 2010 [2] - The company's main business includes the production, processing, and sales of dairy products, with revenue composition: ambient milk 45.21%, low-temperature milk 39.57%, and other products [2] - As of September 30, the number of shareholders in Huangshi Group is 64,500, an increase of 2.75% from the previous period [2] Group 3 - In the first nine months of 2025, Huangshi Group achieved operating revenue of 1.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.97% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was -49.2447 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 236.02% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 187 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy market in China is experiencing significant changes amid market fluctuations, with a contraction in demand and increased competition among major players [1][2][17]. Market Overview - The liquid milk industry in China is projected to reach a scale of 344.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.2% from 2022 to 2024, following a previous CAGR of 7.2% from 2011 to 2021 [1]. - In September 2025, the overall sales of dairy products across all channels saw a year-on-year decline of 16.8% [1]. Company Performance - In Q3, Yili's revenue decreased by 1.7% to 28.631 billion yuan, while Mengniu's revenue fell by 6.9% to 41.567 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][6]. - Yili's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 1.71% to 90.564 billion yuan, but its net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan [6]. - Yili's liquid milk revenue declined by 4.49% to 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a significant drop of 8.83% in Q3 [6]. Competitive Landscape - The market is undergoing a period of adjustment, with intensified price competition due to weakened demand [7][8]. - Yili has maintained a relatively stable position in the market despite fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a healthy industry ecosystem rather than engaging in aggressive price wars [8]. - In the ambient milk sector, Yili and Mengniu maintain a duopoly with a combined market share of 87%, where Yili holds 48% and Mengniu 39% [8]. Product Segmentation - Yili's milk powder and dairy products revenue increased by 13.7% to 24.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters, driven by double-digit growth in infant formula sales [8]. - The infant formula market is competitive, with Yili claiming the top market share, while competitors like Feihe are experiencing revenue declines [9][11]. Regional Dynamics - The low-temperature milk market is highly competitive, with Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% [12]. - Regional dairy companies are facing increasing pressure, with companies like Guangming Dairy and San Yuan experiencing revenue declines, while New Dairy and Junlebao are expanding [13][14]. Strategic Developments - New Dairy has achieved significant growth through acquisitions and is focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in its home market of Chengdu [14]. - Junlebao is expanding its production capacity and has initiated an IPO process, indicating a strategic push for growth [16]. Future Opportunities - The dairy industry still presents structural opportunities, including the potential to tap into specialized nutrition markets and expand internationally [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].