Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2024, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit among listed companies, attributed to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2023, 19 listed dairy companies in A-shares achieved total revenue of 184.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [1]. - The total net profit for these companies fell from 13.10 billion yuan to 9.58 billion yuan, representing a 27% decline [1][2]. - 14 out of 19 companies reported a decrease in revenue, compared to only 6 the previous year [1]. Group 2: Key Companies - Yili Group reported a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, but experienced an 8.24% decline in revenue and an 18.94% drop in net profit, marking its first instance of dual decline [2]. - Other liquid milk companies, such as Bright Dairy and San Yuan, saw net profit declines of 25.36% and 77.44%, respectively [2]. - Five dairy companies reported losses, including Huangshi Group, Zhuangyuan Pasture, and Xibu Dairy, an increase of two companies from the previous year [2][4]. Group 3: Growth and Resilience - Only 6 companies reported net profit growth, including Beingmate, Pinwo Food, Miaokelando, Yiming Food, New Dairy, and Hairong Technology [3]. - New Dairy has maintained double-digit growth in net profit in recent years, despite a 2.93% revenue decline in 2024 [3][4]. - New Dairy's focus on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products has allowed it to avoid intense competition and benefit from rising penetration rates of low-temperature products [4].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2024, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit among major companies, attributed to oversupply, weakened demand, and high inventory levels [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2023, 19 dairy companies in A-shares reported total revenue of 184.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [1] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders fell from 13.10 billion yuan to 9.58 billion yuan, with 13 companies reporting a decline in net profit [1] - The dairy industry index has dropped over 50% from its peak in January 2021 to its low in September 2024, although a recent uptick in the index suggests potential recovery [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Challenges - Knight Dairy and Western Pastoral both reported continuous cash collection ratios below 100%, indicating weaker sales collection capabilities [1] - Knight Dairy's performance was adversely affected by falling fresh milk prices, rising sugar costs, and significant losses in futures trading, leading to increased accounts receivable and inventory [2] - Despite having cash collection ratios above 100%, companies like Huangshi Group and Junyao Health experienced significant year-on-year declines in performance [3] Group 3: Accounts Receivable and Inventory Trends - The total accounts receivable for 19 dairy companies was 8.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.55% year-on-year, with 9 companies reporting an increase in accounts receivable [4] - Notable companies with rising accounts receivable include Huirong Technology, Knight Dairy, and Yiming Foods [4] - The total inventory for these companies was 19.07 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, but 9 companies saw an increase in inventory, including Junyao Health and Knight Dairy [4] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - Miao Ke Blue and Zhuangyuan Pastoral faced revenue declines alongside rising inventory levels, with Miao Ke Blue's accounts receivable increasing by 20% [5] - Miao Ke Blue's rapid expansion since 2020 has led to increased competition and a price war, necessitating time to digest the consequences of previous overproduction [5]